저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 연준의 금리 동결과 대차대조표 축소 계획에도 Schiff는 경기 침체와 양적완화(QE4) 재개를 예상하며 달러 약세를 전망한다. 연준 발표 내용: 기준금리 1~1.25%를 유지했고, 물가가 예상보다 약했다. 대차대조표(약 4.5조 달러)를 곧 축소할 예정이라는 시사가 나왔다. Schiff는 대차대조표 축소는 확대보다 훨씬 어려워 실제로는 완료되기 어렵다고 본다. 경기 전망: 미국 경기는 역사상 가장 긴 확장기이지만 가장 약한 확장이며, 소비자 부채와 소매판매 급감을 근거로 침체가 멀지 않았다고 주장한다. 다음 침체 시 연준은 금리 인하와 QE를 다시 시행할 것이라고 봤다. 연준 평가: 연준은 항상 낙관적이며 문제를 인정하지 않는다고 비판했고, 2008년 금융위기 직전에도 그랬다고 지적했다. 금리는 시장이 정해야 하며, 연준의 저금리가 자산 거품과 저성장을 낳았다고 주장한다. 달러 전망: 2014~2015년 달러 강세는 '속임수 랠리'였고, 2017년 들어 달러지수가 약 10% 하락해 연저점을 기록했다. 달러는 더 떨어질 것으로 본다. 무역적자 확대와 트럼프의 보호무역 위협이 추가 리스크다. 트럼프 관련: 트럼프가 주식시장과 경제 성과의 소유권을 주장해 연준의 책임 전가 대상이 되었다고 평가했다. 출연자 전망: 장기적으로 경기 침체, QE4 재개, 달러 약세를 예상한다.
다듬은 글
species speaking of raising rates the Federal Reserve just announced it will not raise rates right now in a statement Wednesday we learned the Fed is leaving its benchmark interest rate between one and one point two five percent the announcement does not come as a surprise inflation has been weaker than originally expected though the Fed believes it will rebound in the near future what investors were looking for in this statement was a more precise timeline on when the Fed wants to start downsizing its bond portfolio which will apparently happen relatively soon the Fed currently has a four point five trillion dollar balance sheet in Treasuries and bonds it bought up after the financial crisis the dollar dropped on the announcement while gold rebounded after sliding most of Wednesday waiting for news from the Fed well to dig deeper into this announcement and what it'll mean for growth I'm joined now by Peter Schiff CEO of euro pacific capital peter thanks for joining us today look the Fed just released its plan for the next few months and there was of course some things that many people were predicting one of them is that the interest rates were not going to rise not going to change what kind of impact do you think we can expect from this sort of announcement well no impact I mean pretty much everybody knew the Fed was not going to surprise the markets and hike rates this meeting although they did indicate that they would begin to shrink their balance sheet relatively soon but by relatively soon they may mean they may mean NEVER because you know shrinking the balance sheet is a lot harder than expanding it you know quantitative easing was the fun part quantitative tightening is not only the hard part it's really the impossible part but it is possible that Janet Yellen may in fact begin the process but it's never going to be completed long before that day comes we're going to have to go back to Europe set interest rates the Fed is going to relaunch quantitative easing QE for maybe it won't be Janet Yellen that does it maybe it'll be whoever Donald Trump appoints to replace her why do you say that we're going to go backwards now what's pointing toward that happening well look the US economy is long overdue for a recession anyway I mean this is one of the longest expansions in history it's certainly the weakest expansion in history and it's required the most amount of artificial stimulus in history but look the economy is slowing down dramatically even the way we measure it the consumer is dead he is loaded up with debt retail sales are plunging we can't be far from a recession and so what is the Fed going to do in the next recession they're going to do exactly what they did in the last one they're going to lower interest rates and they're going to do quantitative easing do you see a disconnect between what you are saying to us right now and what Janet Yellen is saying in her Federal Reserve statements she continues to point toward positive things happening in the economy and kind of brushing off things that look a little bit more negative like this stalled growth because that's all the Fed ever does I mean they're always optimistic they're always positive they never acknowledge the problems even if they see them they're not going to admit it I mean they were very positive going right into the financial crisis of 2008 I mean it's like you're a weatherman and there's a category 5 hurricane right off the coast and your forecast is sunshine and it's great weather I mean that's the Federal Reserve so they're never going to give you an honest assessment of the economy even if they honestly understand it so it doesn't surprise me that the Fed is very sanguine about the future but the future unfortunately is quite bleak especially as a result of the policies that the Fed is pursued because everything that the Federal Reserve has done in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis has made the underlying economic problems that caused that crisis worse and now the Fed is set us up for an even bigger disaster one of the takeaways from today's statement really stuck out to me it seemed pretty counterintuitive the Fed said it wanted to get economic levels to a point where it neither encourages nor discourages economic activity Peter what does that mean I don't even know if the Fed knows what that means because you know we want the free market to set interest rates so if you want an interest rate that is conducive to economic growth let the market set the rate when the Fed sets the rate it's never going to get it right it's either going to be too high or too low and in most cases it's too low but the interest rate being too low distorts the economy what it's resulted or what it's produced is slow growth because we have minimal capital investment we don't have enough savings and real production so we divert resources from Main Street to Wall Street so we get asset bubbles and we get a weak economy and that's what we've had what would you suggest then we're talking about a stage right now where it looks like interest rates are going to stay between one and one point two five percent probably at least until December what would you be doing instead at this moment to brace ourselves for what's to come in the next couple of years well I think the dollar rally that we had in 2014-2015 was really a sucker rally it was a bunch of currency traders betting on the efficacy of Fed policy and I think they bet wrong and in fact coming into this year the most crowded trade on Wall Street was long the dollar the dollar did rally the dollar index rallied about six percent between the time Trump was elected at the time he was inaugurated well since inauguration the dollar index has collapsed about 10 percent right a new low for the year today and I think the air is only just starting to come out of this bubble so I think the dollars going way down especially when the Fed has to do an about-face and you know Donald Trump basically is daring Janet Young to raise rates because he basically is dangling the carrot that he might reappoint her provided that she keeps interest rates low now I don't think he's going to reappoint her but I don't know that Yellen is going to take the bait I mean maybe she will have to raise rates because she doesn't want to appear to be caving in to his pressure but I don't even think even matters if the Fed manages one or two more rate hikes before Janet Yellen leaves office you know they're pretty much done they never really normalized interest rates so the rate hikes that we're getting are too little too late to help the dollar it's going down and what might be a real problem is if the dollar really tanks the trade deficits going up because Americans are going to have to spend more for their imports and that lot rising trade deficit could annoy President Trump because he doesn't like the trade deficit it is a problem but he always threatens protectionism and that could be an even bigger problem so the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Neel Kashkari said that the Fed has been raising rates too fast and the next rate hike isn't expected until at least December so obviously that goes against what you are saying is increasing rates quicker something we should be concerned about I think you've answered that obvious where does that come from that idea that that it was too fast that we weren't ready when it's been well at eight nine years well they've been you know I don't even say that they've been raising them at a snail's pace because I think snails are faster but you know they have certainly accelerated ever since Trump was elected the Fed his hike rates three times before the election during the entire eight years of Obama they raised rates just once so you know they have certainly picked up the pace even though the economy is no stronger and in many cases is weaker now than it was in the years before Trump took office so I think the Fed has been involved in to raise rates because they have a fall guy in Donald Trump I think Donald Trump has made the mistake of claiming ownership of this economy claiming ownership of the stock market taking credit for the stock market's gains and the supposed it's strength of the economy and so we set himself up perfectly and the Fed could take advantage of that because with them everything comes tumbling up tumbling down they can blame it all on Trump Peter Schiff CEO of euro pacific capital certainly a pleasure talking to you thank you so much
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