저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 금 상승 추세는 아직 초기이며 현재 조정은 매수 기회, 달러 약세와 원자재 반등이 신흥국 증시 재평가를 이끈다는 낙관론. 금·귀금속: 금은 단기 조정 중이지만 헤지펀드 숏 포지션과 달러 약세가 유효해 장기 강세가 이어질 것으로 봤다. 장기 투자자는 하락을 추가 매수 기회로 활용해야 한다고 주장했다. 신흥국: 연준의 금리 인상이 지연되고 달러가 약세로 전환하면 신흥국 주식이 재평가될 것으로 봤다. 유가가 40달러 아래로 내려갔다가 49달러 이상으로 반등한 점과 석유주 신고가를 근거로 제시했다. 신흥국 부채: BIS가 제기한 신흥국 기업 부채 상환 부담(3,400억 달러)은 이미 주가에 상당 부분 반영됐다고 봤다. 경기 전망: 현재 상황은 2000~2001년 닷컴 버블 붕괴와 유사하며 달러 약세 장기화를 초래할 것으로 봤다. 2008년과는 시장 포지션이 다르다고 평가했다. 경기침체 리스크: 2001년 침체보다 경제적 충격이 더 클 것이며, 향후 역사서에서는 연속된 경기침체가 아닌 대공황으로 기록될 것이라고 주장했다. 결론적 투자 시사점: 금과 신흥국 자산에 우호적이고, 달러와 미국 주식에는 비관적인 입장.
다듬은 글
after a good run well into the 3 1300 range gold has fallen to its lowest in two months our next guest peter schiff the founder of euro pacific capital has been bullish on precious metals given where he believes we are in the business cycle but even silver has hit its lowest level in weeks so amir first asked peter if there was a reason for precious metals investors to get skittish take a look at how he responded i think you just ride them out i think it's the it's the bears that should get skittish i think anybody who is foolish enough to be short remember when the year began we had for the first time ever hedge funds were net short gold and gold has been a great performing asset so far this year i'm not sure how many of these hedge fund shorts are still out there i know this has been a horrible year for hedge funds one of the worst in memories being short gold is probably one of the reasons and so they're the ones that should be nervous i think the long-term buyers should be very you know heartened by what's going on everything seems to be validating the thesis of being long gold uh short to dollar and i think this is still early in in the gold bull market so if anything gold bulls should be using this dip as an opportunity to uh to add to their positions yeah i was just going to ask you that it seems like the most opportune time to really get in into the market into the resource if you have not already but let me ask you i mean you've also been bullish on emerging markets which have also seen a dip on this fed hawkishness as of late the bank for international settlements warned on thursday that a corporate debt binge for emerging market countries that started in 2010 is now starting to come due they're looking at payments of 340 billion dollars are you worried at all about the risk for financial distress in coming years well you know i think a lot of that was factored into the emerging market stocks the last several years based on the anticipation of these these debts coming due and based on the idea that the dollar would be much stronger and therefore the debt payments a much bigger burden and also the the weakness in commodity prices many of these countries commodity exporters but i think as the fed is failing to deliver the rate hikes as hikes that everybody anticipated and the dollar begins to weaken and you start to see strength in commodities look at how well oil bounced off of 40.
you know it dipped below 40 very recently and then quickly rose just by friday got back above 49. many of the oil stocks hit new 52-week highs they traded very very strong they didn't make new lows when oil went back below 40. i think that was very encouraging so i think the markets again are starting to look beyond the rate hikes to the rate cuts and to into a weaker not a stronger dollar all of this is going to be good for emerging markets because they already were punished based on the idea the dollar would be stronger and that rates would be higher and so as these forecasts turned out to be wrong i think there's going to be a big re-rating and you can already see these markets reacting i mean emerging markets year-to-date are certainly doing better than the u.s stock market and i think a lot of the gains just began i think even in the second quarter and even though there's a little bit of a pause going on right now with all the rate hike talk i think all this talk will be out of the way by next week once we get through the jackson hall meeting and maybe again we get another look at the the second quarter gdp which could be even weaker than the initial report which was also much weaker than expected well peter anyone that knows you knows that you have spotted a recession you think either we're in one or we're on the cusp of one and i've heard you make references both to what we saw happen in 2001 with the dot-com bubble bursting and then of course to the financial crisis of 2007-2008 in your view which one is more similar to what we're seeing happen today well i think it's going to be more similar as far as the way the markets react to what happened when the dot-com bubble burst than when the uh you know real estate bubble burst and we had the financial crisis because back in the 1990s everybody was preparing for a strong dollar the dollar had this big rise and people thought that the fed was omnipin you know alan greenspan was the maestro we had the new era the new economy the dot-coms uh so our markets were the envy of the world everybody wanted to buy u.s stocks because they wanted our tech stocks they wanted internet they wanted the dollar and we had these uh short-term uh on paper anyway budget surpluses and people believed they would continue indefinitely they were talking about the u.s paying off the national debt and being debt-free and all this nonsense played into a big dollar rally and when that bubble burst in 2001 it ushered in a seven year dollar bear market the dollar index went from 120 down to a record low near 70.
that ignited the bull market in gold gold went from under 300 to a thousand oil went from under 20 to 150 all the emerging market stocks exploded some of these markets were up four or 500 percent i think that's what we're headed for now another huge disappointment where everybody who bet on the u.s and bet on the fed bet wrong people are going to find out that this was just a gigantic bubble not a real recovery it's not like 2008 it doesn't remind me of that other than the fact that people are wrong because if you look at how the markets were trading going into 2008 gold was at a record high the dollar was at a record low everybody was already bearish on the dollar and bullish on commodities and they were just blindsided to the financial crisis and so today the markets are positioned very differently than they were going into 0.8 they're much similar to where they were going into 2000 2001 but as far as the economy is concerned i think the economic fallout will be much worse than the recession of 01 it's certainly far even worse rather than the recession of 08 which we now call the great recession i think this one is going to be worse and and in fact i think when they do write the history books about this time period it's not going to be about rolling recessions it's going to be about a depression you know we we just don't realize that we're in it yet but at some point when the historians look back this is going to be considered a depression not just a series of recessions
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