저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 미국 국채금리 상승과 달러 약세를 근거로 주식시장 거품이 꺼지고 있으며, 연준의 QE4 재개로 달러를 희생해 주가를 떠받칠 것이라고 주장. 금리 전망: 10년물 금리는 현재 약 2.92%로 3%에 근접, 올해 4% 이상도 가능하다고 봄. 30년물도 더 오를 것이라 주장. 2008년 수준보다 높다는 점을 근거로 듦. 금리 상승 원인: 국가부채 사상 최대, 재정적자·무역적자 확대, 저축률 10년 최저로 차입 수요가 급증하는데, 연준이 대차대조표를 축소하며 국채 매도 물량이 늘어남. 해외가 이 낮은 금리로는 빌려주지 않을 것이라 봄. 경제 성장 전망: 3% 성장은 어렵고 2% 달성도 힘들다고 봄. 3% 실질성장에 인플레 2%면 명목금리 5%, 최소 10년물 5% 이상이 맞다고 주장. 애틀랜타 연은 GDPNow 전망이 5.4%에서 3.2%로 하향된 점도 지적. 정책 평가: 트럼프의 감세로 경제가 살아난다는 주장에 반대하고, 성장은 정부 축소로 이뤄져야 한다고 주장. 주식 시장: 미국 주식시장은 거품이며 이미 약세장(bear market)에 진입했다고 봄. 조정(correction)이 아니라는 입장. 다만 연준이 다시 유동성을 풀면 거품이 한 번 더 부풀 수 있다고 봄. 달러: 달러는 30년 만에 최악의 해를 보냈고 작년 낙폭은 14년 만에 최대. 연준 신뢰 상실과 잘못된 이유의 인플레로 금리와 달러가 엇갈리는 상황이라 진단. 투자 전략: 본인은 외국 주식, 원자재 관련주, 금광주를 매수 중. 미국 주식·채권·달러에서 빠져나와야 한다고 권고. 금은 시장이 깨달으면 급등할 것이라 주장. 리스크: 연준의 QE4 재개 시 달러를 희생해 주가를 떠받칠 가능성이 가장 큰 시나리오로 제시.
다듬은 글
does the ten-year Treasury yield hold the leash of the stock market well we saw that yesterday right now we do have that yield off the highs of yesterday we're at two point nine two percent kind of inching toward three percent but according to Peter Schiff it may blow the top off that and even touch four percent this year possibly even higher and that concerns him and he says it should concern you he's your Pacific Capital president Peter there are a lot of people whose eyes start to glaze over when they hear about the 10-year yield why does that somehow present a harbinger of horrible things to come and it's not just a ten-year go all the way out to the 30 year rates are going a lot higher you have to remember the way the Federal Reserve was able to prop up the market and prop up this economy was by keeping interest rates artificially low and they've succeeded in doing that for a long time but now the markets are gonna raise interest rates back to where they should be and they should be a lot higher because we have record debt record budget deficits coming record trade deficits a ten-year low in our savings rate we have to borrow tremendous amounts of money and the world is not going to lend it to us at these ridiculously low interest rates normal let me show a long-term 10-year yield going back looks like 10 years and you can see where it was ten years ago and then you can see where it is now and it's kind of heading back to what we saw it's even higher than where we were in 2008 so that would make sense wouldn't it and what does this number engender so much fear it's it's gonna go higher look we have more than twice the debt that we had in 2008 and and you November when we were doing trillion-dollar deficits under Obama the Fed was doing a trillion dollars a year in QE so now the Fed is doing no QE and the Fed is actually threatening to shrink its balance sheet which means the Fed is gonna the treasurer is going to have to sell extra bonds to pay off the Fed so the amount of debt that we're going to be selling is unprecedented so supply is going off the charts so price rates have to go up and the markets don't even don't understand exactly how high rates are gonna go make us absolutely they're gonna get there how bad could it eventually get but let's look at the debt clock we know that the debt has gone up and could possibly hit a full to 21 trillion this year and listen the President did criticize the national debt I recall when he was running and yet now it's gotten even higher I think it's adding something like forty five dollars per second well he criticized a lot of things rightly when he was running but now he's embracing everything he criticized including the big fat ugly stock market bubble you know and I believe that bubble pop I believe that we're now in a bear market it's not a correction unless the Fed decides to blow more air into it which is still what I believe is going to happen but you know you're talking about all this yeah oh yeah QE 4 is coming but if you look at if you think that the economy is gonna grow at 3% which I doubt right I think it's gonna be hard to even hit 2 but if it does 3 that's that's the real rate then the nominal rate would have to be 5 if you think inflation is just 2 percent that would imply a 10-year yield of at least 5% but whatever that's in normal time let me speak for what if President Trump were here he would say the tax cut will pay for itself the 1.5 trillion and it will stimulate the economy I still don't understand though why suddenly they're predicting two to four percent growth and yet if you look at the Atlanta Fed they're really scaling back their prediction I believe just a few days ago at the beginning of February they pretty much had it at 5.4 percent February first and then by February 16th that's now 3.2 percent yeah and they're going a lot lower than that I mean that's already a 40 that's already if I don't know what they were smoking when they put up 5.4 but at least now they're they're thinking a little a little more clearly but but they're still too high this is gonna be a limbo they're gonna keep lowering that bar as we get you know closer and closer to the number zero Pacific to help your clients well look I believe that the end game is QE 4 I think the Fed is gonna sacrifice the dollar to prop up the stock market to try to prop up the economy are you shorting the wall are you doing well yeah well of course I mean the dollar now had sought it space for its worst year in 30 years last year is the biggest drop in 14 I'm buying foreign stocks you know I'm buying commodity stocks and buy gold stocks all this is bullish for gold and bearish for the dollar you know nobody can figure out the mainstream is scratching their heads they don't know why yields are rising and the dollar is falling it's because of a loss of confidence in the Fed it's because of rising inflation rates are not rising for the right reason they're rising for the wrong reason and Trump is wrong you don't stimulate the economy by cutting taxes you stimulate the economy by shrinking government and it's a shrink government out that you voted for President Trump correct well you got to remember my choices right it was it was Trump or it was Hillary Clinton I mean so he wasn't my pick for the nominee I was a Rand Paul supporter but but my point that I'm trying to make liz is that you stimulate the economy by making government smaller so government takes your name fewer easily no with the landscape we have ahead of us and you have to tell our viewers right now the number one thing they should do with their portfolio they should they should send it to me to manage at Euro Pacific Capital I think they should get out no they got to get out of the US stock market get out of the US bond market okay get out of US dollar and get I think there's a lot of places that you can go there are other countries that are not as reckless and not as irresponsible they have fewer regulations lower taxes trade surpluses you know but governments that live within their means you know and you got to get into some gold stocks Gold is gonna go ballistic when the markets figure out what I already know
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