저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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2016년 10월 금값 급락 직후, 연준의 금리 인상 발언이 과장이며 실제로는 인상하지 않을 것이라는 Schiff의 주장이 중심이다. 연준은 말만 하고 행동하지 않으며, 거시 데이터도 약하다는 논지다. 연준 Lacker 총재는 인플레이션에 선제 대응해야 한다고 했으나, Schiff는 실제로 선제적이었다면 수년 전에 올렸어야 한다고 반박했다. 연준은 데이터 의존적이라 말하지만 3분기 GDP 추정치가 애틀랜타 연준에서 3.8%에서 2.2%로 하향됐고 IMF도 성장률을 낮췄다고 지적했다. 금값은 40달러 하락했고 Schiff는 1,300달러 붕괴가 손절 매물을 촉발했다고 봤다. 달러 강세, 도이체방크 우려, 브렉시트에 따른 파운드 약세도 영향을 줬다고 언급했다. 은행주는 금리 인상이 호재라는 기대로 상승했으나 Schiff는 금리 인상이 은행에 재앙이 될 것이며 그 때문에 연준도 올리지 않을 것이라고 봤다. 11월 대선 직전 인상 가능성은 낮고 12월도 불확실하다고 전망했다. 대선 이후 연준이 금리를 올리기보다 인하하고 마이너스 금리와 QE로 갈 것이라는 전망도 제시했다. 금에 대해서는 강세장이 올 것이며 약세 때 매수하라고 권했다. 이 발언은 2016년 과거 영상이므로 현재 시장 기준의 예측으로 쓰기에는 부적절하다.
다듬은 글
let's get straight to one of our favorites when it comes to this topic Peter Schiff is joining us he's the CEO of euro pacific capital peter tell me in your view what's happening what's hitting gold so hard today well apparently people still think the Federal Reserve is serious about raising interest rates because you had Jeffrey Lacker you know coming out this morning and talking about how the Fed needs to be pre-emptive when it comes to inflation fighting and not really wait for it to heat up but move sooner rather than later which is really absurd because if the Fed really was going to be pre-emptive they would have raised rates years ago and they would already be much higher than they are now but again I think this is all talk the Fed realizes that the u.s.
cannot afford for the Fed to fight inflation that this is all just talk but apparently the markets haven't figured that out yet and then gold down 40 bucks because people actually think the feds about to raise rates but potentially the Fed is getting more serious we did see a rate hike last December we didn't get one in September a lot much of the street is betting on another one in December this year so potentially it may be later than some expected but maybe this is the time to get the ball rolling well look the time to roll the ball was years ago the fact that we got one rate hike in December shows that the Fed is not serious about hiking rates all they do is talk about it meanwhile they keep saying their data dependent the data that they claim to depend on has actually gotten a lot worse since they didn't raise rates in September look at the Atlanta Fed just yesterday downwardly revised their q3 GDP estimates to 2.2 they were at three point eight a month ago and I think they're still too high you know you have the IMF come out today and downwardly revised their growth estimates as well so the data has been weak we're gonna get a non-farm payroll report on Friday you know what if that's week I mean when are the markets gonna figure out that this is all bark and no bite when it comes to rate hikes it may partially be that that's impacting gold today but also certainly currencies are having an impact today as well there's a lot of concern about deutsche bank the banking system in general right now and also with brexit and what we're seeing in the pound as measured against the dollars we've got a strong dollar today peter potentially impacting this trade too and as one of the traders mentioned on the air when you break through certain technical levels 1,300 then the sellers pile on how much of this is sort of a one-day move with respect to those points that I made well I certainly think that there's probably some stops you know this is the first time we've been below 1300 in a few months so I think now there are some people who maybe until a few days ago we're pretty confident the Fed wasn't gonna go now actually think they might but again even if the Fed does raise rates and I doubt that they would do it in November that's a week before the election and I don't think they want to take a chance on an adverse reaction I mean as much as they want to deny that their political they are very much political and they certainly want Hillary Clinton to win so if you think they're gonna raise rates maybe they do it in December but there's a lot of time between now and then a lot of data and it's certainly if the Fed was gonna do it they can change their mind but you know the financials I don't think the financials are concerned enough most of the bank stocks are up today because they actually believe our traders believe that higher interest rates are going to be good for the banks they're not they're gonna be a disaster for the banks that's one of the reasons we're probably not going to get the rate hikes because I think the Fed understands this but people who are betting that higher interest rates are going to help the banks are wrong twice because they're not going to help the banks and the Fed is probably not going to raise rates anyway Peter you mentioned the election would you be a buyer of gold ahead of the election in case there is uncertainty or a surprise win well I've been a buyer a goal for a while and it's not because of uncertainty it's because of the things that I'm certain of that I've been buying gold I mean I'm certain that all this talk about a recovery is wrong the recovery is an illusion it's just another gigantic bubble that's one thing that Donald Trump has got right this is a big bubble and the Fed is scared of letting it pop and so they're doing everything they can to keep blowing air into it that's one of the reasons they're not gonna raise rates but again they can't admit that so they keep talking as if they're gonna raise but they don't do it and the markets still take all this rate talk seriously but I do believe that once the election is over and this is kind of where I disagree with Trump I think once the election is over the Fed can drop the pretense that all is well they can actually start dodging all the weak economic data and not only stop talking about raising rates but actually do what they really want to do is cut them they actually want to go negative they want to take grades below zero and they're right there ready to do QE for you made a comment earlier that you think the Fed wants Hillary to win do you think that's having an impact on the market well I don't think it's having an impact on the market I think it certainly is impacting the Fed but you know I don't think the Fed is gonna raise rates regardless of who they want in the rut in the White House I mean interest rates should be high they should have raised them a long time ago what people still haven't figured out is that low interest rates actually stifle legitimate economic growth to really grow the economy we need more savings so we can have more capital investment and higher productivity and to do that we need higher interest rates but we can't get higher interest rates without tricking the bubble you know everybody wants to go to heaven but nobody wants to die and that is the problem we're never gonna have a real recovery in kill wheat until we kill this phony recovery but for political reasons that's not gonna happen Jimmy real question for Peter Peter when you look at the macroeconomic condition from a holistic standpoint and I've heard you be critical the Fed and I agree with you on that too do you think there's also an element that the Fed believes that the policies are over regulate over tax don't allow business to bring money here just keep everything stifled that they feel they have to counterbalance I guess what I'm trying to say is is there enough blame to go around or should the Fed to have all of it well the problem is that's not a counterbalance it's not like two wrongs make a right just because Congress it has too many regulations and taxes are too high doesn't mean we should throw more gasoline on the fire by adding cheap money into the mix what Congress should be it's rein in the government they should raise interest rates and force the government to cut spending but you'll agree with me that the Fed that the Fed thinks that it's a counterbalance the Fed thinks that the 1.1 percent GDP is why they have to keep rates low you agree to that don't you oh yeah well most likely the Fed actually believes all the Keynesian nonsense these guys learned in college so yes they probably think that what they have to do is help the economy me but they're like you know medieval witch doctors trying to leech you back to health what they're doing is undermining the economy Peter last question before I let you go a worse day for gold in 18 months for you a buyer today adding to your position well javi I'm already long gold but I would encourage anybody who doesn't own it to buys to buy somewhere if you already have some you could buy more I don't know that I bought any I haven't bought any myself today but you never know I might but I own a lot of gold I own a lot of gold stocks I've been buying for years and I think that the big trade is still coming because people still have to come to terms with what's actually going on right now you have people jockeying around for positions you have short-term traders but the big move in gold is going to be a huge move up and anybody who can understand that is going to take advantage of any kind of weakness in the market to add to their positions or to accumulate if they if they don't have a position you know don't wait much longer okay Peter Schiff CEO of euro pacific capital always great to have you on the show Peter we'll talk to you soon
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