저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 피터 쉬프는 미국 경제 회복이 허상이며 연준은 금리를 인상할 수 없고 결국 0% 이하 제로금리와 양적완화로 회귀할 것이라고 주장한다. 6월 고용 보고서 해석: 6월 28.7만명 증가는 5월 참담한 수치의 반등이 아니라 오히려 6월이 이례적이며 5월·4월과 비슷한 약세가 정상이라고 주장. 기업 출생-사망 모형으로 만들어진 일자리 비중이 크고, 증가분은 55세 이상에 몰리고 24세 이하는 대규모 감소, 저임금 파트타임 서비스직 중심이라고 지적. 경기침체 전망: 실업률은 후행지표이므로 기업이 경기 둔화를 뒤늦게 인식해 고용을 줄일 것이며, 이미 침체 중이거나 곧 시작된다고 봄. 이번 침체는 2008~09년 대침체보다 길고 깊을 것이라는 장기 견해. 임금 및 최저임금: 6월 시간당 임금 2센트 상승은 예상에 못 미치고 물가도 오르고 있어 실질임금은 여전히 상승하지 않는다고 주장. 최저임금 인상이 청년층 해고로 이어지고 있다고 봄. 연준 전망: 브렉시트 투표와 고용 지표를 기다렸다는 설명은 핑계이며, 연준은 경제가 약해 추가 인상을 정당화할 수 없다고 봄. 12월 첫 인상이 재앙이었기에 다음 조치는 제로 복귀, 마이너스 금리 가능성, 양적완화 재개라고 전망. 2008년보다 큰 거품이 존재하며 연준이 이를 터뜨리지 못하고 무기한 부풀리려 한다고 주장. 인플레이션과 부채: 연준은 물가 목표 2%를 말로만 강조하며 실제로 억제 수단이 없다고 봄. 미국 정부·연준 부채가 단기 구조라 의미 있는 금리 인상은 국가 파산, 대형은행 붕괴, 국채 디폴트를 부른다고 주장. 물가가 2.5~5%까지 올라도 연준은 제로 수준을 유지할 것이라고 전망. 영상 후반 자료: 연준이 0.25%p 인상해 0.5~0.75%로 올리고 2017년 3회 인상 전망을 내놓은 뉴스 발췌 인용, 경제 성장 완만 전망이 제시됨(쉬프 반론의 대비 자료). 대상 자산 직접 언급: 금리(미국채금리) 방향에 대해 쉬프는 인상 불가, 사실상 하락(제로 복귀) 쪽으로 봄. 주식·비트코인·금 등 개별 자산 가격 목표는 언급 없음. 출연자 개인 주장 중심이며 사회자 발언은 제외.
다듬은 글
welcome back to the show employers added a seasonally adjusted 287,000 jobs in June for the strongest job growth in eight months nearly every sector of the economy added jobs a far contrast from May's catastrophic numbers to get his take on that Peter Schiff is on the show he's the CEO of europacific capital I first asked him if the June jobs report actually indicates May's jobs report was an aberration here's what he had to say well to me probably June is more the aberration because May was more consistent with April both of those months were extremely weak and I'm very suspicious of the June number we'll see how we revise that next month you know we revise down the May number when we got this number but again even if most of the jobs end up holding I still don't think it validates any kind of legitimate recovery because a large percentage of those jobs are simply you know out of thin air during using the birth death model where the government simply assumes that jobs were created by businesses that they believe started up but also if you look at the demographics all these jobs went to people 55 and older younger workers 24 and under net lost a tremendous number of jobs in June and of course the jobs that we did create were very low paying service sector jobs part-time jobs we continue to Hemorrhage full-time jobs higher paying jobs the kind of jobs that that can support a family and instead we replace them with these lowp paying part-time service sector jobs so it is not a good sign for the US economy so you're still concerned about the types of jobs that are being added and and you can certainly argue that the pace of job creation has slowed since the winter I think we've seen a trajectory downward since about February but is it the kind of pace that really signals a possible recession uh Morgan Stanley's Chief Economist Ellen zenner told the Wall Street Journal that to the contrary this actually looks more like a graceful slowing into a lower channel of job growth and that um this is normal at this late stage uh of the business expansion I mean does she have a point there no I don't think so and unemployment is not a leading indicator it's more of a lagging indicator it's when employers are surprised by a downturn in the economy that they adjust their payroll so the fact that so many employers don't purce just how bad the economy is going to be doesn't invalidate the fact that either we're already in a recession or a recession is going to be starting very quickly and once employers uh figure this out then they're going to be trimming their payrolls I think rather substantially and so as the recession progresses that's when you're going to start to see big layoffs in in fact normally layoffs continue even after the recession is over but this recession is going to last for a long time I think it's going to be longer lasting and deeper than the recession that we had in 08 and 09 which we call the Great Recession so again I'm not really sure what we'll call this one the greater recession uh but it's going to be worse well what about wage gains I mean that's been a point of concern over the past year we want to see those wages go up but in recent months we have seen them uh start to move upwards and in fact in June average hourly uh wages Rose 2 cents an hour to $256 and many would argue that indicates employ employers are finally beginning to to compete against each other to attract candidates uh that the the labor Mark Market is tightening I mean what's your take on on why wages have gone up well first of all they're not going up very much that was still below estimates and and prices are also Rising so we do have inflation uh coming back and so wages are rising as well as prices but real wages are still not in fact going up but you do have some mandated minimum wage hikes that have been taking place throughout the country and since so many Americans now have minimum wage jobs those mandatory increases are going to are going to filter through into these numbers but as employers react to the higher minimum wage by laying workers off this is going to begin to bite in fact I'm sure that's one of the reasons that you're seeing massive layoffs for workers 24 and younger because these are the workers that are most impacted by a hike in the minimum wage because they have the least amount of skills and therefore they're the they're the the people that are going to be laid off first as a result of increases in a minimum wage and of course it's going to be increasingly more difficult for younger Americans to get their first job because the government is pricing those jobs out of existence and Peter in the last fed uh minutes we learned that there were two things the Fed was really waiting on to make their determination to raise rates the outcome of the brexit vote and the jobs data we now have both so given the full picture I mean what kind of assessment do you think we will get out of the FED at the end of this month well I don't think the fed's going anywhere again as I've said since the beginning since the first time the FED raised rates in December I believe their next move is to cut rates and they weren't really waiting on anything those were just the excuses the Federal Reserve can't admit that the economy is too weak for an additional rate hike so they have to keep pretending that they're contemplating actually raising rates and so they have to make up some excuses as to why they're not doing it right now and while they're waiting for some other data to come in but it really doesn't matter what the data is because it's never going to justify a hike they're always going to come up with an excuse why they're waiting meantime the next thing they're going to do I think is go back to zero in fact they may not stop at zero they may go negative and I do think they're going to restart quantitative easing because I think we've got a much bigger bubble on our hands than the one that popped in 2008 and I think the Federal Reserve finally notices recognizes this and they know that this bubble is too big to pop and say they are determined to blow air into it indefinitely so you think that at this point the FED is looking for more reasons not to hike rates rather than to hike them oh absolutely I mean they tried to hike rates in December and it was a complete disaster uh and so they don't want to do that again well the question is I mean how does the FED handle inflation at this point we know they've said time and time again that they're looking for that Target rate of 2% so how do they back themselves out of that corner because we know the FED has to be concerned about protecting its credibility right well they have no credibility and they can't handle inflation you know it's the opposite of Teddy Rosevelt when it comes to inflation they speak loudly but they have no stick at all and because they have no stick that's why they have to talk so tough they continue to pretend that if inflation ever were to rear its ugly head that they have the tools to rain it in but no they don't because we have so much debt in the United States particularly the government and the FED itself and the debt is so shortterm in nature uh on the the federal level that any meaningful increase in interest rates would bankrupt the country uh would collapse all the big banks that were bailed out they would all fail uh the US government would have to default on its treasury debt so the FED can't raise rates but it can't admit that so it pretends that if inflation you know picked up that they would do something about it but they will do nothing about it it doesn't matter how high inflation goes 2 and a half 3% 4% 5% doesn't matter the FED will stay at zero or practically at zero they will never try to rein it in because if they ever tried they would cause a worst financial crisis news from the Federal Reserve the central bank has raised the interest rate one quarter of a percentage Point moving it from half to three4 of a percentage point and those projections also show that the group expects the FED to raise rates three times in 2017 officials concluded their two-day meeting this afternoon chair Yellen spoke shortly after their decision over the past year 2 and A4 million net new jobs have been created unemployment has fallen further and inflation has moved closer to our longer run goal of 2% economic growth has picked up since the middle of the Year household spending continues to rise at a moderate Pace supported by income gains and by relatively high levels of consumer sentiment and wealth business investment however remains soft despite some stabilization in the energy sector overall we expect the economy will expand at a moderate Pace over the next few years Rick
Comments 0