저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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연준이 금리를 올릴 것처럼 말하지만 실제로는 실행하지 않으며, 미국 경제는 성장이 아니라 정체·스태그플레이션 상태라는 주장. 연준 부의장 피셔의 '목표에 근접, 성장 회복 기대' 발언을 허위적 낙관으로 보며, 올해 3개 분기 GDP 성장률이 평균 1% 미만이고 2분기 하향 수정이 예상된다고 주장. 연준이 금리인상 가능성을 열어두는 것은 신뢰를 유지하기 위한 연막이며, 데이터 의존을 내세워 실제 행동은 피하고 있다고 비판. 실질 GDP 디플레이터가 실제 인플레이션을 과소평가해 성장률이 인위적으로 낮게 나온다고 봄. 고용시장은 고임금 정규직이 줄고 저임금 시간제 서비스직이 늘어 경제 정체의 증거이며, 샌더스·트럼프 현상도 경제 불만의 결과라고 해석. 애틀랜타 연은 3분기 GDP 추정치 3.6%는 과거 패턴상 하향될 것이며, 3분기가 강해도 1~2분기와 합치면 여전히 연준 목표에 크게 못 미친다고 주장. 윌리엄스의 인플레이션 목표 상향 제안은 상황을 더 악화시키는 것이며, 1970년대 카터 시절 정책과 유사하다고 비판. 금리인상은 선거 전까지 말뿐일 가능성이 크고, 선거 후에는 양적완화와 재차 제로금리 또는 마이너스금리로 복귀할 것이라고 전망. 옐런 의장 역시 경제가 괜찮다는 연기를 계속할 것으로 봄. 금리 인상 사이클은 시장이 예상한 규모에 크게 못 미칠 것이라는 견해. (자동 자막 기반이며 일부 오타 보정. 종목별 직접 매매 언급은 없음)
다듬은 글
over the weekend Hing at a rate increase Federal Reserve Vice chairman Stanley fiser said quote we are close to our targets looking ahead I expect GDP growth to pick up fiser sounds optimistic about the economy but our next guest Peter Schiff founder of europacific capital has a much darker projection of what's ahead so I asked Peter what fiser sees about the future that he simply does not here's what he had to say well I don't know that he sees anything he's just talking I think the FED is very reluctant to admit what big failure their policy has been especially ahead of the election when everybody's trying their best to make sure that Hillary Clinton becomes the next president but if fiser is saying that the FED is close to its goals when it comes to economic growth look at the last three quarters economic growth is averaged less than 1% we're going to get a revision to the second quarter on Friday we're probably going to get another downward revision so if the FED is simply hoping that everything just magically turns around in the third quarter I don't know what they're looking at uh to conclude that I think it's just talk and I don't think they're seriously considering a rate hike they just don't want to admit that they're not because they want to keep up the pretense that the economy is strong enough for a rate hike without actually raising height ra raising rates yeah but don't they know it's dangerous to do that I mean a lot of people have argued that they're going to lose credibility uh if they can't back up their rhetoric with action so why would they do that well because they always have the fail safe that they're data dependent and so they don't really have to do anything because they always say we're going to act based on the data they've never actually committed to doing anything so they've never really uh put themselves in a position where they ever actually have to act and I think that's by Design but what's really amazing to me is that the FED has any credibility left at all because I don't know why people haven't figured out this game yet you know let me ask you what do you see as the most glaring threats uh to the fed's progrowth prognostications both domestically and internationally well nothing that they do is actually PR growth everything is anti-growth it's all about sustaining asset Bubbles and propping up overly indebted governments but if we want real economic growth we have to let those asset bubbles burst we have to force governments to cut spending not enable them to keep on borrowing and spending more and we have to allow the economy to restructure but the federal reserve's programs are specifically designed to prevent that from happening and so they've trapped the economy in a low growth in fact in a really stagflationary environment in fact even Allan greenpan is now warning about stagflation and he ought to know because he helped get this party started yeah one of the things that we mentioned credibility I want to go back to that issue because we know uh that that is one of the biggest critiques against the FED that uh the FED is promising rate increases that are ultimately abandoned last minute now instead of focusing on on a timeline of rate hikes what is it that you think the FED should be focusing on as a real sign that the economy is healing well it's not healing it's so far from healing because of what the FED has done the FED indicators would you be looking at what do you think is most important to keep an eye on well obviously you can look at GDP numbers which are very very low and in fact I think they'd be lower if they were more honest cuz I think the deflator which is used to take nominal GDP and make it real I think it they're artificially low because I think inflation is higher than what the government admits but look at what's happening in the labor market look at the decimation of higher paying full-time jobs and the proliferation of lowp paying part-time service sector jobs look at how popular Bernie Sanders was in the Democratic party look at Donald Trump getting the Republican nomination this is the result of voter frustration with a lousy economy and so the FED is trying to take credit for economic growth when all the evidence shows that we have economic stagnation at best well let me ask you about the GDP because as you said you believe it's going to be revised down for the second quarter but if you look at where the third quarter is right now where the projections for it are it's right now at 3.6% according to uh the GDP now tracker from the Atlanta fed what do you make of that I mean wouldn't a strong third quarter undermine uh your narrative a little bit not really first of all even if we do get a strong third quarter you have to average that quarter in with the very weak quarters from one and two and so for the whole 9 months it's still going to be well below the fed's objective and then we still have to see what happens in the fourth quarter but if you remember every time the Atlanta fed uh uh forecast the GDP they always start out high and then they have to move their number down as we get weaker and weaker data and I think the same thing is going to happen again in the third quarter I seriously doubt that we're going to get a number North wor of three more likely we'll get something uh you know in the ones uh maybe we'll get something in the twos but if you take all three quarters again and look at them in their entirely entirety it is a very weak market and that is despite interest rates being practically zero so can you imagine what would be happening If the Fed has had actually followed through on the rate hikes that it promised last year yeah but despite the somewhat downbeat GDP numbers I mean you can't that we're we're hearing more hawkish calls out of the FED in General on top of Fisher's recent statements we last week heard from New York fed Governor Bill Dudley who said essentially more of the same however on the D side uh we've got San Francisco fed President John Williams last week he made the case for a higher inflation Target what do you make of that idea I mean does that fix anything no it just makes everything worse in fact he advocated for higher inflation and larger government budget deficit I mean we had that during the Jimmy Carter years and it didn't work out very well back then and in fact if you look at economic productivity productivity growth in America for the past three quarters hasn't been this week since Jimmy Carter was President so it seems like they want to return to those policies because we've got that kind of economic growth but you know I don't think we've actually had hawkish statements we've had a mixture of dovish and more doish statements even the statements that are supposedly hawkish again don't commit the FED to doing anything all they do is hold out the possibility that there may be another rate hike well so what Anything is Possible the question is what is probable and nobody has said that we'll probably raise rates only that we haven't eliminated the possibility but the possibility is slim but I think the more important thing rather than whether or not the FED raises rates again maybe one or two more times the the real thing is when is the Fed going to start easing again because that's that's what Williams is talking about we're going to have a another round of quantitative easing because Williams is advocating for bigger government deficits that the Federal Reserve will monetize with QE and I think rates are going to go back down to zero regardless of whether or not they're increased before they go back down they may even go negative this rate hike cycle is nowhere near the magnitude that everybody believed it was going to be even if they do another hike but I think more likely they're not I think they're just going to talk about hiking probably until the election and then once it's over they can abandon the pretense that everything is fine and they can come to the rescue of the economy again but of course when the Fred fed rescues the economy it's the equivalent of throwing a drowning man an anchor yeah well some people are saying that that uh that idea about raising the inflation Target could come up at at the the Symposium taking place uh the meeting of fed officials at Jackson Hall what are you expecting to hear out of chairwoman Janet Yellen yeah well she's going to talk on Friday it's the same day we get those GDP revisions look I don't expect her to Veer much from the script I think she will want still wants to pretend that everything is okay uh she still wants to congratulate uh the FED uh for a job well done she still wants to pretend uh that you know the economy is strong so I don't know that she's going to rock that boat uh going into you know the elections in November so I think she's still going to pretend that the FED might raise rates if the data uh warrants it but of course the data won't warrant it no matter what it is that's the wiggle room uh that the Federal Reserve has has left itself
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