저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 피터 쉬프는 연준이 금리를 올릴 능력도 의지도 없고 금리 인상은 말뿐이라며, 채권 거품을 피해 채권을 거의 보유하지 않는다고 주장한다. 연준 정책 전망: 연준이 금리를 인상할 수 없으며 실제로는 완화 기조로 가고 있다고 본다. 0.25%p 인상 후 추가 인하 여지가 없다는 점을 근거로 든다. 랠리 원인: 브렉시트 이후 연준의 금리 인상 가능성이 사라졌고, 이것이 주식 랠리의 원인이라고 설명한다. 경기 전망: 경제가 사실상 침체로 되돌아갔거나 그 문턱에 있다고 보며, 연준의 인상 발언은 시장을 속이기 위한 것이라고 주장한다. 과거 예측 회고: 2014년 말 이후 연준이 금리를 거의 올리지 않을 것이라 했던 자신의 전망이 가장 정확했다고 주장한다. 다만 이는 과거 설명이므로 예측이 아니다. 채권 포지션: 장기 채권 거품이 터지면 자신의 펀드가 가장 잘 버틸 것이라며 단기 채권과 외화 위주로 운용 중이라고 밝힌다. 배당·가치 펀드 성과가 카테고리 상위권이라고 언급한다. 리스크: 채권 거품 붕괴 가능성을 주요 리스크로 제시하나 구체적 기간·목표치는 없다.
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let go ahad and move on to the and breter he is the ceo of eur pacific capital thanks so much for joining us peter you know of course the fed kicks off that meeting today what do you expect the fed to do and how do you expect the dollar do is that i don't so are you makes ahe think will won adjusting my tight i think the easing campaign already started thee they started to push back the expectations of when the next rate k would happen because see a lot of people are worried that the fed doesn't have any ammunition to cut rates because they only raise them by a quarter point and they can only cut by cut once and then you know they're at zero i think what they're going to do to eas monetary policy going forward isj the talking rat soon they they ti rut is inter we understand you're hanging on to your bearish tone like it seems you often are but we've had a nice rally and equities what do you think has been the momentum all sudden central bed talking more stimulus more q and i think it was the brexit that really took the fed out of the game to the extent that anybody still believed that they were contemplating a r hike brexit basically took all that off the table and i think that's what caused the rally was the idea that hey this is all good because it means all ext unc around world me more money and maret r since to a you got a here jeter agree with you that i don't they're tighten this don't age with you and i time i hear them talk it's like they're begging and with the market to all them to tighten i really think they tight but i don't think the windows all genin to bed turn i can i don't think they ti but want the mar to think ti theos of teddy ros you know he used to speak but a stick but when it comes to r hikes the fed has no stick so all they can do is speak loudly and hope nobody notices the abs of a stick so they want to keep talking about all the r hikes and how they're raise interest rates but the last thing they want to do is actually do that because then the whole ecy and then markets the box in so instead they as ifat keep coming up with excuse after another they're not doing it me they making up excuses for so long the economy is basically relapsed back into recession we either on the door of one and i think the fed raised a few would themed on how ecy would rat but could rates and now is all why are you well i was ous wrong because remember if you go back to late 2014 let me let me finish if you go back to late 2014 all once so i was far closer to being right by saying they wouldn't ra rates at all all the other experts who were saying oh six times times eight times you go back and think of all the rate hikes that people thought were to happen i knew that the fed couldn't rate the fact that they did one tri back all maret ra rates maret crushed the reason mark red back because they rates is i said you could mar you you so let finish could year feu doe circ breakers and then once those they cancel our market has ried beautifully yes because they ra this is rous how people came on cnbc and said oh the isna ra rat three or four times in 2015 three or four times in 2016 everybody was off by a mile i was the closest one who have come on on your network in the last few years nobody nobody got closer to me how many ier got nobody else was so far out of because they waited de there were people who thought they were ra rates inch in june september they were wrong all year i was the that was i kept saying they won't they won't won and finally try to save some credibility they did a tron back it cut let one because he the on cnbc is l 300 bas points underneath under benchmark at b is under because i don't own any bond a bond that no bond because i don't want to participate in bond bubble so when the bond bubble bursts my bond fund is going to be number one so the reason it's lagging is because i don't actually own any bonds all i have is very short term you know de in foreign currencies but if you look at my my my value fund my dividend payers fund is i think number one or number two mutual fund in category this year so you're picking the one f that's lagging and you're ignoring all the other funds that are number one and I tell you the only reason it's lagging is because I don't want to expose my clients to the biggest bubble ever in the bond market and when the bond bubble collapses and everybody else loses money the people in my funds are going to be sitting pretty thank you so much peter we really do appreciate you joining us lively conversation always we do number thank you so really do appreciate we appreciate you are coming on and we will look into yours performance we do appreciate it peter sh there of euro pacific capital
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