저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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Peter Schiff은 연준이 6월 또는 7월에 금리를 올릴 가능성은 낮고, 경제 지표 악화로 오히려 연말까지 금리 인하와 QE4에 나설 것이라고 주장했다. 연준 금리 인상 관련 시장 전망: 최근 FOMC 의사록 이후 금리 인상 기대가 커졌으나 고용 등 대부분 경제지표가 예상에 못 미쳐 2분기 반등을 기대하기 어렵다고 봤다. 과거 12월 인상 때도 시장은 오히려 상승했으나 인상 후 연초 최악의 출발을 보였다며, 6월 인상 시 증시 급락을 예상했다. 금 전망: 금은 다시 랠리할 것이라 봤고, 금 가격이 3년간 상승 흐름이라는 반론도 있었으나 Schiff는 금 상승을 계속 강조했다. 달러 전망: 연준의 금리 인상은 너무 적고 너무 늦어 달러가 하락할 것으로 봤다. 반면 진행자 측은 금리 인상 시 달러 강세를 예상했다. 미국채 및 기타 자산: 미국채는 장기적으로 신용 위험과 통화 가치 하락을 우려했으나 단기 방향은 명확히 밝히지 않았다. 외국 주식과 금광주에 롱 포지션을 취하고 있다고 밝혔다. 경기 및 리스크: 이미 경기침체에 진입했다고 보며, 연준의 인위적 유동성이 버블을 키워 향후 붕괴 시 구제금융이 없을 것이라고 경고했다. 주식시장은 지난 1년간 횡보했고 평균 종목은 하락했다고 주장했다. 출연자 전망 요약: Schiff는 금리 인하와 QE4, 금 강세, 달러 약세, 증시 급락 가능성을 중심으로 비관적 거시 전망을 제시했다. 진행자 Tim Seymour는 금리 인상과 증시 변동성 확대를 보다 중립적 또는 상반된 시각으로 제시했다.
다듬은 글
so at this point whether the Fed hikes or not in June has a Fed box itself in Peter Schiff is your Pacific capitals president and CEO you know Peter a lot of people would contend that the Fed is painted itself in the corner implying that it's got to raise neither June or July why do you say the Fed might not raise at all well I still think the odds favor a another punt and you know they said they were data dependent and if you actually look at the data that's come out since the last FOMC meeting you know it was those minutes that got everybody thinking rate hike most of the data has gotten worse certainly the jobs data has been worse but most of the economic data including most of the economic data we've got this week was well below expectations so I don't see a second quarter rebound and that was contingent that the Fed said wealthy economy improves and the job market improves we might raise rates well neither are improving in fact it's more likely they're going in the other direction hey Peter it's Brian Kelly so I'm curious in terms of the Fed being boxed in how does the dollar play into this because as I see it if the Fed raised rates we have a much stronger dollar if they don't I'm not sure that I think the rest of the world would start covering shorts the interview on that well you know I don't think so because the last time the Fed raised rates everybody thought it would be good for the dollar and the dollar went down and you know I think this is a repeat of what happened ly here you know the Fed launches a trial balloon they raise the possibility of a rate hike and they wait and see how the markets react and the markets are basically reacting positively just states like they did in December last year everybody was convinced there was a rate hike but the markets were rising anyway and I think that it was the increase in the markets that gave the Fed the false confidence to actually raise rates but as soon as they did the markets sold off we had the worst start to a year in history and I think the same thing will happen if they raise rates in June I think the markets going to sell-off I think Gold's going to rally again I think the dollar is going to sell off because these these rate hikes are too little too late everybody knows that the Fed is ending its tightening cycle whether it makes one more quarter point hike or not is immaterial because by the end of the year they're going to have to take all this stuff back they're going to be cutting rates they're going to be doing QE four and I think the only but Pierre ultimately I think we're having some technical difficulties with Peters shot of course we'll try and get them back online because we were just in the middle of a great conversation here I mean that saying that there's going to be QE 4 by the end of the year that implies we get a baffle ask them a recession at that point I think there's there's a couple problems I have with Peters analysis I mean first of all no matter what he says goal is always going higher and goal has been going higher for three years and the Fed it's always a phony rally now meanwhile if you've just invested in gold for the last three years and you've thrown Treasuries out the window and you said it's a phony rally you've missed the biggest equity rally we've had arguably in the last generation you've missed a treasury rally that's probably going to continue on and gold is down 800 bucks an ounce so you know to me it doesn't matter what the Fed is is doing in the textbooks and theoretically what's good for the economy what's good for the markets is actually that the Fed has been doing what they're doing and so I'm not someone that believes that things are going to go swimmingly for the Fed at their next move I think more fed equals more volatility and I think they've got a tough place to go like everybody here on this desk and thrilled that we continue to rely on monetary policy to get us out of it but the reality is that those have been bad traits and we continue to get up here over and over again and talk about them I wish we could talk about here's point about what happened at in December when they raised rate and then you know a month later we had the worst start to the year I think is well-taken in that the markets have seemed to not react directly on the day that things happen even when it came with the Chinese yuan devaluation it took me three or four days or even took a week before the stock market here in the US actually reacted to it so I think there's something to be said to that and I would mention just on the dollar and you look at what's going on China China's going to actually talk to the Fed and say hey when you're gonna raise rates they're trying to get a little you know an edge here I think that's a development you've got to watch which would go to exactly what Tim saying I think between now and the Fed meeting would have an awful I don't I think what he what he's saying though is that the Fed has created an asset bubble inside the stock exchange inside I should say the equity markets so whether that's whether that's good or bad your point is as accurate it's been a great trade the market is rally aggressively but when it ends you're talking about drastically lower prices in the equity market probably on valuation 1500 we got this we have Peter Schiff back here it's good to have you back I think that's the first time you've ever been at a loss for words you're in the mid was it a loss I guess you kept talk you probably kept talking you're the shot went down you're in the midst though of telling us that by the end of the year you believe that the Fed will rein back in all of the hikes of him it had done to that point and it will have embarked on sweet what's the back I don't know that they're gonna I don't know they're going to get all that done by the end of the year but they're going to have to reverse course and and start backtracking because I think we already are in a recession and I think by the time they go back and they revise the numbers that we got for the fourth quarter of last year early this year I think the data is going to reflect that we've been in a recession they never know that you're in a recession until you're almost finished with it although I think this one is gonna the last one is they're going to have to they're gonna have to rename it but you know I heard you guys talk about the stock market how great it's been the stock market has gone nowhere for the last year the average stock is down look this has been the worst year in 18 years for management talking about the last NATO pointer you've been saying this same story for the last three years you've been telling me that Gold's Gavilan own you've been telling the Treasury's yet we're going to default the you ever know is going to want to invest in US Treasuries and you can see I'm getting all of the stock market don't know what have you been put where I can go both 2013 and pull this alone up don't put words don't put words in my mouth and first of all yes I was warning about the housing bubble for years before it burst I was warning about the financial crisis for years before it burst so plenty of people on CNBC were making fun of me in 2006 and 2007 Peter you've been coming on for years nothing's happening nothing wrong you're you know and then everything collapsed so what have you been what have you been saying other than that Fed has got a phony economy here and that Gold's going to 5,000 in the next few months know that I'd look yeah what I've been saying is everything the Fed has done since the financial crisis has made the underlying problems that caused that crisis worse and so because of that we are on the verge of a much worse economic crisis we are more addicted to cheap money now than ever before there have been more mistakes more malinvestments this is the biggest bubble the Fed has ever inflated and the ramifications will be much more nor when it pops there won't be any bailouts there won't be any party I do you suggest you to play that because weird is a trading show and you're talking a lot of theory they've been talking the same thing for the last three years so how would you play this right yes and how long was I telling people to short subprime mortgages before the trade an old house to watch hold on you guys are you short the markets because that's what are you doing no I'm not emotional wreck training yet no I am NOT short to market right because I do believe that the Fed will put a floor beneath the market by printing money but the ultimate collapses in the dollar it hasn't happened yet but the Fed is going to sacrifice the dollar in fact even when Donald Trump spoke the truth about the fact that we need to renegotiate reasure debt we have to restructure it because we can't possibly pay it back then he backtracked aside no no no we'll just print money well that's what we do we print money because we can't repay okay my choice all about monetary policy let me finish it's all about perception right Puerto Rico is broke we all know that but it was broke two years ago it was broke three years ago why didn't anybody care the creditors kept lending the money even though they were broke well eventually people wake up and they realize that a debtor is broke America is more bankrupt than Puerto Rico our creditors haven't figured it out yet we might not default but we will print so when the Fed has to go back to zero when they have to relaunch QE when they maybe have to go negative and people realize that none of this work that that Ben Bernanke's book you know the courage to act needs to go into the fiction section because none of it is true actually I would argue with so much that but we don't have enough time on the show the bottom line is the Fed is in a position where actually more people want their debt and actually think it's the best credit in the world at a time when it's very difficult to understand who the best creditors are yes a lot of these you want to tell me that is doing a lot better and the bet is probably able to buy bait they're just not doing it or issuing much better rates now than they were four or five years ago right now the Fed is in the catbird seat no it's not you know this is they felt they were in the catbird seat right before the financial crisis you think there was a single person on the Fed that had any concern about the housing market about the mortgage market a sailor was blind as the bat Janet Yellen was the leader of the deniers she thought everything was great there was nothing wrong we were around the corner from a complete collapse they have no track record of convicting any that we have 15 seconds left Peter your long gold what your short Treasuries short US dollar no I'm not I'm not sure Treasuries but I am short $2 in that I have long foreign assets I'm long foreign stocks I'm old stocks look how much gold stocks are up this year you guys don't leave those Peter great to speak with you thank you leadership your Pacific
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