저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 연준이 경기침체로 금리를 다시 제로 수준으로 내릴 가능성이 높다고 보며, 미국 주식시장은 인위적 부양에 의존하고 있다. 실적 및 시장 진단: 실적 전망 하향 조정 종목이 많고(44개 하회 vs 21개 상회), 이는 이익 침체(earnings recession)이자 경기침체 진행을 의미한다고 주장. 주식시장은 실적 하락과 연준 재개입 기대 사이에서 버티는 중이라고 평가. 연준 금리 전망: 금리를 마이너스로 가기 전에 제로로 되돌릴 가능성이 있다고 봄. 6월 금리인상 확률은 약 30%로 제시했으나, 고용지표 악화로 인상 가능성은 점점 낮아진다고 언급. 연준은 대선 전 경기 약세를 인정하기 싫어하지만 결국 제로 금리 복귀 가능성이 있다고 주장. 정치적 배경으로 옐런의 민주당 친화성, 트럼프의 옐런 재임명 불가 발언을 근거로 듦. 미국 부채 문제: 금리가 낮은 현재 상황에서만 이자 상환이 가능하며, 금리가 조금만 올라도 상환이 불가능하다고 주장. 부채는 클린턴 시절 흑자 때도 줄지 않았다고 언급. 트럼프의 부채 재조정·협상 발언에 대해서는 실효성이 없다고 비판. 단기 부채가 만기 도래 시 액면가로 상환해야 하고, 더 높은 금리로 재발행해야 하는 문제를 지적. 언급 종목/자산 방향: 개별 종목 언급은 없음. 미국 주식시장 전반은 실적 악화 속 연준 부양 기대에 의존하는 불안정한 상태로 평가. 미국채 금리는 제로 복귀 가능성을 언급해 하락 방향으로 해석. 리스크 조건: 연준의 추가 완화 혹은 양적완화가 시장을 떠받칠 수 있으나, 경기 약화가 지속되면 제로금리 복귀 필요성이 커짐. 금리 상승 시 부채 상환 부담이 급증한다는 점이 핵심 리스크. 출연자 전망: 연준이 대선 전후로 금리를 제로로 낮출 가능성이 높으며, 금리 인상은 가능성이 낮다고 전망. 시장은 이 재부양 기대에 의존하고 있다고 판단.
다듬은 글
let's get to our next guest Peter shift CEO of euro pacific capital joins us now live on the line from Las Vegas still with us I guess price for this hour Tony Nash from complete intelligence Peter good to have you with us today thank you so much for joining us what are you making of the US market at the moment when you look at the earnings season some fairly rosy forecast coming out I suppose if you look at the numbers 44 forecasts are below expectations 21 above well you know I think we're in our earnings recession in addition to an economic recession but imagine how much worse earnings would be if the Fed didn't have interest rates close to zero so this whole thing is artificial and the stock market right now is caught between earnings going down but the belief that the Fed will come back in the game but with a great cut or more quantitative easing to lift the market back up honey Peter I'm choose about your rate could comments do you think they'll go back to zero interest rate policy they're even talking about well they're talking about even potentially negative rates or they're thinking about it and they can't go negative and less they first go to the bureau but we were at zero before why wouldn't they go back to zero again I mean I think we're in a recession but if we're not already there we're very close to it I think the Fed is likely to cut rates 20 than to raise them again what's your time horizon for that do you think that's going to happen say bye June or over the summer or do you think it will happen later in the year well the wild art is the election and the problem is the Federal Reserve doesn't really want to admit the economy is so weak that they have to cut rates back to zero because President Obama is trying to pretend that we have this great recovery and Hillary Clinton is running on four more years so for the Fed to basically undercut that message by cutting rates that puts the Fed in the box because Janet Yellen is a team player and she knows what team she's on and Donald Trump has already said he wouldn't reappoint her so she wants Hillary to win but the problem is the economy is so weak that she might have to go back to zero to try to artificially stimulate it before November because the weaker the economy is the more people are going to be voting Donald Trump I just bear with me you're on the outside of the coin here tiny so let's just put that on the table you actually think that that's going to lift right oh I don't think they're gonna lift her I think they may have one rate rise this year we we have maybe a thirty percent probability of a rate rise in June right there's there's a long time between now and June I think but it there was an employment index that came out this today that the Fed looks at that actually had the employment outlook negative so Janet Yellen being a labor economist she's really sensitive to the employment situation if that employment outlook is negative I think that chance of a rate rise in June is becoming you know increasingly unlikely okay they let me come back to you um there's something we were talking about in the break a huge spoke to a u.s.
colleagues a week or so ago essentially talking about the u.s. debt situation and you know Donald Trump's comments about us dead you said that he's essentially saying America won't be able to pay back their dead if interest rates go up correct well that's obvious I mean we can't pay our debt I mean he mentioned that I mean he was an honest comment he said what happens to feature if rates go up we can't afford to make the payments we have an enormous debt and interest rates are practically zero and that's the only reason we can afford to service it is because rates are so low but even if they go up a little bit there is no realistic way that the United States can make the payment so Peter what what's your view I mean I saw that interview live on CNBC and it seemed to me the Trump was saying look we just need to extend the payback period and that way we can pay down some of this debt so Japan has paid back about sixteen percent of their privately held public sector debt they last year in 2015 do you think Trump is going to try to keep interest rates low and extend that that period so that the u.s.
can start to pay this off of it well it's impossible to pay off our debt are dead get bigger and bigger and bigger there's never been a year where the national debt is from even during those years of the surpluses in the Clinton years the national debt still grew it never never shrank but Trump was actually talking about a restructuring and negotiation he said on the king of death I know how to reduce that he can negotiate because there is no way to refinance it I mean we have no funds to do that interest rates are already very low and if interest rates were to rise all that short-term debt matures and you know we can't buy it back at a discount it matures at par and then how we going to reissue it at higher rates of interest we don't feel up for that yeah okay all right Peter look a pleasure to have you with us today thank you so much for joining us
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