저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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연준의 금리 인하 사이클마다 금 가격이 상승해 왔고, 현재 금은 사상 최고가(약 2,580~2,600달러) 부근이다. 연준이 인플레이션을 유발하는 완화를 계속하는 한 금 상승이 이어지며, 이번 사이클이 특히 클 것으로 본다. 금광주(GDX/GDXJ)는 금에 비해 여전히 저평가되어 있다. 은도 30달러 이상으로 상승했으나 52주 고점 대비 낮아 저평가로 본다. 주식시장(다우·S&P·나스닥·러셀2000)은 금 대비 약세로 보았다.
다듬은 글
the first time the FED started cutting in 2007 goal was 726 Al I didn't look back when they started cutting in 2000 but but but then when the the FED started cutting in 2001 or after the dotom bubble popped gold was under 300 Greenspan first started cutting right you had gold under 300 when they had a cut rates again leading up to the financial crisis gold was 726 when they started the next easing cycle it was 1412 and now they're starting another easing cycle with gold at 2600 right this is not a coincidence fed keeps easing causing inflation printing money and the price of gold goes up now the question is how much higher is this easing cycle going to send the price of gold because I think this one is going to be the big one Peter Schiff an American Economist and financial commentator known for his bearish views on the US economy has highlighted a striking pattern in the relationship between Federal Reserve policy and gold prices over the past few decades Peter Schiff highlights Gold's consistent rise during past Federal Reserve rate Cuts he notes that gold was under $300 in 2001 after the bubble climbed to $726 before the 2007 financial crisis and reached $1,412 during the subsequent easing cycle this historical trend is continuing today gold prices have soared to a new all-time high of $2,586 currently gold is trading at $2,582 up nearly 1% driven Higher by increased expectations of more significant interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve Market speculators even suggest that gold could reach the $3,000 Mark Peter also observes that silver is approaching $31 currently above $30 with a more significant percentage gain than gold despite this silver stocks remain well below their 52- we highs and silver has not yet reached its recent Peak from a few weeks ago the price of silver is down 1.28% but up 1.02% from a month ago the 52e high for silver is $31 and the 52e low is $27 silver is anticipated to exceed $30 by early 2025 having briefly surpassed this level between May 17th and May 31st 2024 marking its first return to this price in 11 years Peter Schiff also notes that gold is up nearly 25% this year a significant increase with the year still ongoing he attributes this rise to the federal reserve's ongoing easing which drives inflation by Prin money and in turn boosts gold prices before watching the video please subscribe to our Channel hit the Bell icon and share it with anyone who might benefit from it gold is now up 25% on the year that's a big year and the year is not even overl now let's contrast that to what's going on in the stock market because a lot of people are talking about you know stock market's really strong and and it has been strong if you measure it in dollars US paper currency so the Dow was up 2.1% on the week now if you just heard that oh that's a good week Dow was up 2.1% gold was up 3.2% so that means in terms of gold priced in Gold the Dow was down even the S&P which rose 3.1% on the week in Gold terms it was actually lower now year to date the Dow is up nine and 3/4 perc that pales in comparison to 25% the Dow is getting crushed this year priced in gold now the S&P is holding up a little bit better it's up 18.6% on the year but it's still still down in terms of gold NASDAQ was up four and three4 perc on the week so the NASDAQ beat gold on the week but it's not beating it on the year even with all the mag s stocks and Nvidia the nasda is up about 19.8% and the Russell 2000 also had a good week of 3.9% so it edged out Golds 3.2% but year-to date the Russell 2000 is only up 8.4% it's getting demolished in in terms of of gold the only thing that's beating gold really as a group are the gold mining stocks but they're not beating it by much now finally today GDX and gdxj finally made new 52-week highs even though gold was hitting record highs earlier in the week uh these indexes still hadn't caught up so it took today right we had to take out the old high for Gold by more than $50 before gold got back to where it was three weeks ago when gold was $50 lower but the GDX was up 99.3% on the week and the gdxj the Juniors that was up 13.6% I mean excuse me 30 13.6% on the week and 31.6% on the year now you might think well that's a good return these stocks are up 31% on the year not with gold up 25% with gold up 25% these stocks should be up at least 50 if not 75% the reason they're not up more is because investors have been nervous the whole way up everybody keeps expecting the price of gold to collapse on my last podcast I talked about the fact that 2500 was probably the new floor that we could go slightly below it and I think the lowest we got ever since we got above 2500 the lowest we got was about 2480 and here we are now $100 higher at 2580 but when gold had a 1% decline from its highs it went from 2530 to like 2480 gold stocks got clobbered the gdxj was down 15% and so this week it recouped all of those losses but the indexes are still extremely cheap and I still think that people should be buying these stocks as fast as they can come Monday morning regardless of where they are obviously you need to be a Speculator there's risk in these stocks but as far as I'm concerned they may as well be giving them away in Cracker Jack boxes that's how cheap they are and gold still going up silver almost back to 31 dollars above $30 today up you know percentage wise had was a bigger move than gold uh silver stocks of course are still well below their 52e highs because even though gold made a new uh all-time high silver didn't even make a new high from a few weeks ago or month ago wherever it it hit that level so silver is still the sleeper and and the silver stocks are very cheap so over the weekend you can go to shift gold as I've been saying uh there's no reason to wait for a pullback because you're not going to get any significant pullbacks I think the the risk is that you're waiting for gold and silver to come down Peter Schiff notes that despite gold mining stocks like gdxj being the top performers of the day with over a 6% gain gold itself was not mentioned during his hourlong watch of fast money which is surprising given its strong performance this notable rally in gold mining stocks rising 4.3% and on track for its most significant single day gain since early March is driven by a surge in gold prices which have jumped 1.6% the increase in gold prices is attributed to recent economic data and Central Bank interest rate decisions Peter Schiff also observes that Rising inflation will push up both consumer prices and long-term interest rates leading to significant economic impacts that mainstream Financial media are currently over looking the economy reacts more slowly and with greater volatility to changes in monetary policy during High inflation in such an environment interest rates must be kept higher for longer to effectively reduce inflation contrasting with the more manageable adjustments required in a lwi inflation State let's get back to the video if you look at the last couple of uh rate cutting Cycles the most recent one started um in 2019 July 31st 2019 when the FED cut rates and then of course they eventually went to zero with covid but that First Rate cut uh gold was at $1,412 that was the price of gold right o over ,000 an ounce lower than it is now but that was still 26% below the record high the record high was 1920 so gold was way off its highs before the FED started cutting if you go back to the cycle before that which was the September 18th 20 7 cut that preceded the 08 financial crisis but that was the first cut at that time gold was at $726 an ounce it was 15% below its record high from 1980 so the FED has never started a a cutting cycle at least in modern memory of these these Cuts with gold at an all-time record high and you know it's not a coincidence the first time the FED started cutting in 2007 goal was 726 Al I didn't look back when they started cutting in 2000 uh you know but but but then when the the FED started cutting in 2001 or a after the Doom bubble popped gold was under 300 right so when Greenspan first started cutting right you had gold under 300 and then when they had a cut rates again leading up to the financial crisis gold was 726 when they started the next easing cycle it was 1412 and now they're starting another easing cycle with gold at 2600 right this is not a coincidence that the FED keeps easing causing inflation printing money and the price of gold goes up now the question is how much higher is this easing cycle gonna send the price of gold because I think this one is going to be the big one I mean gold is going up again the rise in the price of gold is what shows you that the FED is making a mistake that any cut is a mistake especially a 50 basis point cut but they should be hiking interest rates but no one is covering it you know on yesterday yesterday gold made a new high on Thursday I was watching CNBC they didn't even talk about it then I watched the show Fast Money for an entire hour and you know they didn't mention it once the best performing sector the gdxj yesterday was up like 6% over 6% I mean isn't that fast enough money for these guys they didn't even mention it once not one guy mentioned b or a Gold stock they went over sectors in fact early in the day I was watching on CNBC and that the the lady whoever was you know uh talking said let's go over the markets let's examine what's happening let's look at the movers of the day the sectors that are going the stocks that are going and I know the biggest movers are the gold stocks didn't mention a single one of them like as if they're not even stocks and of course didn't even mention the price of gold this should be the biggest topic of conversation again gold up 25% this year it's beating all the stock market so why not cover it but more important than gold going up is why it's going up what it pends right that the FED is making a mistake this is a harbinger of much higher inflation and again what is going to really uh complicate and compound the severity of this recession is that rates are going up because when uh inflation rears its head in a bigger way it's going to not only make consumer prices go up it's going to make long-term interest rates go up gold is poised to keep Rising as expectations for more aggressive rate cuts and a weakening dollar push its performance to new record highs while gold has outperformed silver has also gained but remains below its recent peaks with Futures markets predicting further rate Cuts both Metals will likely benefit maintaining strong investor interest in a turbulent economic environment as gold and silver continue to show Dynamic movements we'd love to hear your thoughts how do you expect these precious medals to perform in the coming months share your predictions and insights in the comments below if you found this analysis helpful be sure to like subscribe and hit the Bell icon to stay updated with all our 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