저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
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Faber는 통화 증발 환경에서 인플레이션이 향후 더 높아질 수 있다고 보며 실물 금 보유를 장기간 유지 중이라고 설명. 금은 1970년 $35에서 현재 약 $2,500로 올라 구매력을 상대적으로 잘 지켰다고 주장. 금광주는 지난 수년간 S&P500 및 금 가격 대비 극도로 부진했지만 현재 저평가로 보유 중. 자산 디플레이션 시 주식은 30~50% 하락 가능하나 금은 상대적으로 덜 떨어질 것이라 전망. 아시아 일부(홍콩 부동산주, 말레이시아 등)는 저평가로 관심 표명.
다듬은 글
and I think inflation will go much higher than we are now it may dropped in the 6 months to one year but I wouldn't be surprised if we had inflation of around 100% per anom wouldn't surprise me and interest rates around 70% so I want to have some gold and I've had I've been buying gold since 1985 that that's when the gold price had collapsed I started buying every month and I buy every month from time to time I take larger positions research shows that between 1974 in 2008 there were 8 years when US inflation was considered high during those periods gold prices Rose by an average of 14.9% yearly the rate of return for gold Investments fluctuated significantly from 2002 to 2023 but generated positive returns in most years of The observed period between January 1971 and March 2024 gold had an average annual return of 7.98% which was only slightly behind the return of Commodities with an annual average of 8% % the annual average return of gold in 2023 was 13.1% Mark Faber publisher of the Gloom boom and doom report newsletter predicts financial institutions are underexposed to Gold But Rising inflation and money printing will push clients to demand its inclusion in portfolios he foresees inflation reaching up to 100% annually and interest rates as high as 70% making gold essential over the last 20 years annual inflation has averaged 3% in the UK according to the office for national Statistics over the same period the price of gold has increased by an average of 9% per year according to the world gold Council based on historical Trends Mark Faber's views on gold have remained unchanged for 40 years noting that it remains a safe store he highlights how gold priced at $35 an ounce in 1970 is now around $2,500 proving its ability to preserve purchasing power better than cash despite his long-term gold buying strategy since 1985 Faber expresses disappointment in the performance of gold shares gold shares relative to the S and p500 and the price of gold appear extremely undervalued as gold prices have performed well recently gold stocks have followed suit Newmont Mining and Barrett gold are up 54% and 26% respectively over the last 6 months with interest rates forecasted to be cut several times over the next year it could be the beginning for gold equities well my take on gold is the same as it was for the last 40 years that in in the long run in a money printing environment gold is not necessarily the best performing asset but it's a relatively safe asset and it will maintain it purchasing power let's say if I look at the gold price in 1970 it was at uh $35 an ounce before for the Nixon devaluation and now it is at at say around 2,500 so the price level has gone up between 9 1970 and today but the gold price has I think to be fair kept about its value its purchasing power better than cash but uh I mean I'm not saying we will have a boom in gold price but I'm uh I'm of the view that financial institutions they run by portolio managers the port managers are all people they went to Harvard and all these universities and the alens of course and they are conditioned to own stocks and bond and if you look at the composition of assets by fund managers their involvement in the gold Mark is Tiny it's like if you look at the component of oil and energy stocks within the SNP at one stage in uh 1980 it was over 30% of the S&P was energy and energy relate now something like less than 5% so there are some sectors that in the marketplace are under represented and I think financial institutions one day a fund manager will be asked by a client look do you own any gos and he will say no then the fun client will say well are you mad I mean you can see that there's money Printing and inflation accelerating it I think inflation will go much higher than we are now it may in the six months to one year but I wouldn't be surprised if we had inflation of around 100% perom wouldn't surprise me and interest rates around 70% so I want to have some gold and I've had I've been buying gold since 1980 by the that when the gold price had collapsed I started buying every month and I buy every month from time to time I take larger positions I also own some gold shares but I have to say that the performance of gold shares up to now may change but up to now has been an utter disaster as I said my major position is in physical gold which I like the best because I don't like paper we have to be aware when the big bubble will be deflated paper will suffer More Than Physical but I have to admit that gold shares compared to the SNP 500 and gold shares compared to the price of gold ditto for silver are incredibly low so I own the shares because they appear to me to be incredibly low but you asked me before what my view was and I said to you the gold shares have acted horribly it's a complete disaster up to now I may change I hope it will change because I have quite a few of them it's not I don't depend on them going up but basically gold shares have been incredibly disappointing that is the fact stocks have generally performed better than gold over the years but there can be exceptions looking back 20 years for example gold has outperformed the S&P 500 investing in stocks also carries risks while many stocks have delivered substantial returns others have seen their value plummet a long list of stocks have posted triple digigit gains in the last few years at the same time others declined by 50% and some even by more than 90% regarding the end of the recent asset inflation boom Mark Faber explains that a broad decline in asset values could follow he an anticipates that while stock prices might drop by 30 to 50% gold is unlikely to experience a significant surge but should hold its value more effectively than other assets stocks have had a great year however gold is doing even better the metal is up about 30% in the past year compared to roughly 23% for the S&P 500 gold spot price sits above the $2,500 Mark slightly below an all-time high set before Labor Day let's get back to the interview I think we need need to entertain the idea that if we have had this colossal asset inflation in the last 40 years and if it has come to an end the asset inflation then uh everything go can go down but some things will go down more than other so let's say if we make the assumption that stocks could drop 30 or 50% and we own gold and we expect that gold will go up that may not be the case the case may be that gold BS up Rel relatively well that when the stocks drop 50% the gold price only drops 10% so you are relatively becoming very wealthy if your assets only drop 10% and everybody else's assets drop 50% you understand we could be in an environment of asset deflation is possible or of asset deflation in real terms inflation adjust yeah if that is the case I have to say there's not many things that will go up but there are things that will go down much less than others and I don't think that Asia is third cheap yet but some Assets in Asia are cheap like property stocks in Hong Kong they're very low and the economics of offices in Asia are slightly different than in the western world because we don't have the homeless Pro problems and so and uh living conditions in Asia in major cities are not particularly good so people actually like to go to an office they don't want to stay home with the wives or husbands or children the whole day they want to go to an office I also have my own office building I have the house where my family lives next door have no office building is nicer to be alone when you work than having all kinds of trouble the whole day with the household so the economics of office is slightly different here and we have stock markets that have been going down for 10 years Vis the US and they're relatively low the the same applies to European markets they're relatively low and some sectors of the market have were cheap they have started to outperform like in Europe the insurance sector has done well and in Asia just recently say in the last months Malaysia was up almost 10% this year Malaysia in dollar terms is up 20% it's not bad I mean it's respectable India economically is doing well the valuations are very high so what I what I'm interested in is the fundamentals but the value is something bad but the values are very depressed and I may be interested to buy it that if something is good like India but the values are expensive then may not be interested to buy it overall gold has proven to be a smart investment this year with the price of the precious metal Rising steadily since the start of 2024 with the prospect of inflation and economic volatility on the horizon could gold become a more critical asset in your investment strateg
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