저자: DylanLoomis · 외국인
요약 보기
Munro의 테슬라 구조팩 분해 영상을 소개하며 셀 수(816/828 중 828 유력) 논쟁과 테슬라 제조 혁신을 칭찬. 기가베를린 생산 증가(주 1500대 목표, 10월 3교대 계획)와 스크랩율 60%→10% 개선을 언급. 테슬라 에너지의 가상관성(VMM) 소프트웨어와 시장 잠재력(수조 달러)을 강조. WORM Capital의 2024년 5백만 대·주가 3750달러 전망을 전하며 낙관적 견해 제시.
다듬은 글
I think we should... what do I do with my hands? I don't know. Uh, it depends. Are you a hand model? Uh, you know, his name is Ricky, styling gloves. Anyways, uh, it's Ricky Barry, Ricky Bob. So, first up today, Monroe is definitely struggling to get into this structural pack, but they dropped a new video, and we definitely learned some interesting things.
Monroe has blasted away the pink stuff on the structural pack with a dry ice blaster, and Sandy said taking this apart has been a miserable deal. Obviously it's taking them a long time. But for those worried about recycling, don't be. Tesla is basically going to turn these battery packs into high-grade ore. They'll be put into a bath of liquid nitrogen, it will freeze down, and then it'll be ground up and pulverized into small parts, and then they can separate and sort those elements piece by piece. So it won't be hard for different recyclers to do this job in the future.
The bottom of the pack is aluminum and the upper part is steel. The team is expecting either 816 or 828 cells in total in this pack; they don't know yet for sure. The first module they can see is 34 cells long by six across, for 204 cells in total, which would make 816 cells if all four modules were the same. But Sandy said there may be some extra cells hidden in this pack, which is why 828 is still on the table.
On that note, if you're new: a few weeks back we got some inside information and we reported this. Each pack has 828 4680 cells. In case you saw Troy's screenshot a few weeks ago, I'm being told there are no 4680 packs with that 690 figure, so all of them currently have 828 cells. That reporting became a bit of a thing in the community, as Troy Teslik clearly seemed to disagree, saying it can't be 828 cells, and he was fairly dogmatic about it. Now, we're not home yet, but hopefully we get the final number sometime within the next week or so. The reason this number is important at all is because once we have it definitively, we can do some calculations and some math to learn more about the energy density, the pack size, and all of those interesting things.
As you can see in the video right here, there are some side cooling mechanisms. The Monroe team thought this pack was going to be bottom-cooled, but now they're not so sure. At this point in the video it was clear the team was baffled by Tesla's leaps of innovation, and they're still trying to figure out what certain parts of this pack actually are.
Again, I'm dazzled by the technology that Tesla has cranked out on this. This looks different again than anything we've ever seen. I mean, there are a lot of similarities: it's got batteries, and it's got connectors, contactors I should say, and bus bars. But at the end of the day, every time you look at something from Tesla, it looks like, well, this doesn't even come from the same company. The only thing that's similar is, like I say, it's got batteries, separators, conductors, and bus bars, but it seems like they just don't have a limit on their capacity to invent.
One thing that's not talked about enough is Tesla's ability to take risks, not in a sense that will reduce safety. So don't misunderstand me, safety is always priority number one. But the way Tesla employees are encouraged to try new things, to cross-collaborate with other departments in its agile manufacturing structure, and to constantly be pushing the envelope and thinking of revolutionary new ways to do things, is different. Most auto companies for years have settled into changing a few parts here or there every year, but have worked from the same overall model of how to build cars: slow, piece-by-piece, incremental change. Tesla is basically a nuclear bomb blowing up this entire strategy. I don't use hyperbole often, but it's tough to really articulate the engineering prowess and lead that Tesla has, and this mindset is foreign and possibly even unachievable in the legacy auto system.
Back to the four distinct modules in this structural pack. Rather than all of the cells being in one big brick, the barriers in between may be a fiberglass-like material, which could be for thermal runaway mitigation. Sandy said this was cleverly done, and thinks the chances of thermal issues with this pack may be less than the competition.
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Green Only says in a recent update, it seems to go into insane detail to improve range predictions. Even tire pressure is taken into account, amongst many, many other extra variables. Just added, it also takes into account energy loss to phone charging, 12-volt accessories, air density, battery heating and cooling, etc. So it's always great to see Tesla improving that range prediction figure. And if you remember that prototype that Chrome Delete did, where it was basically a Doppler overlay so you could see real-time weather, that would be a pretty sweet feature that hopefully Tesla implements in the future.
We get a report from teslamag.de with an update on the Berlin factory upgrades. Since this Monday, two days ago, employees have been working in two shifts again, and the next intermediate goal is to produce 1,500 Model Ys per week. Previously the rate was 1,000 per week. They're also saying production will be doubled from October.
Tesla Mag says one of the limiting factors to production at Giga Berlin has been the Gigapress machines, and that they're producing too much scrap material, to the tune of sixty percent. Now the good news is that after these upgrades, the scrap rate has been reduced to around ten percent. On Twitter, Tesla Mag actually shared a picture that is seemingly a bunch of this scrap from the Gigapress machine at a local scrapyard. I can't confirm if this is real or not, but I think it was at least worth sharing. Of course, I'd assume all of this will be recycled, but either way, that's a lot of scrap material that hopefully has seen a giant reduction with these new improvements.
They're saying at the beginning of August is when Tesla expects the next wave of new production workers, and then at the beginning of October they're expecting to move to three shifts, which can be planned for the first time at the factory. Albeit, to start, it will only be at 80 percent capacity. At this level with three shifts, Giga Berlin should then produce 600 Model Ys per day, initially though not on weekends, or 3,000 units per week. This would fit in well with what Elon said on the Q2 call: that both Berlin and Austin are expected to hit that 5,000-unit-per-week run rate by the end of the year.
I saw two very impressive FSD Beta maneuvers, so have a look. If you stop it here, ahead of time, you can see that this person opens their door, and the visualization also has that door open already, and it's already starting to get out of the way. And one more here, that's actually pretty similar. So notice he did not have his hands on the wheel. This is why you always should. Luckily the Beta reacted quicker than he did, but always keep your hands on the wheel. If you go back, this was the frame where the car actually opened their door, and just a split second later, it already showed that on the visualization, and the car immediately started to react.
I know most people aren't that excited about Tesla Energy just yet, because it's still a pretty small portion of the business. However, this right here is a pretty significant breakthrough, as it really changes the paradigm of how we're going to think about the grid moving forward. Neo in Australia, one of Tesla's partners at the Hornsdale Battery Reserve, said this: "It's the world's first battery to deliver inertia services at scale into the grid. Outstanding collab between Tesla and others. We need to make sure we understand these inertia services."
So, inertia in general is just that: an object in motion tends to stay in motion. Think of when you're riding a bicycle: when you pedal, you're moving, and when you stop pedaling, you keep moving. That's inertia in a nutshell.
Here's a quick primer and an update on Tesla's software for its energy division. It has tailored its software specifically for energy products, and it's currently operating in 50 different countries. This common software platform, which is collecting all of this data and continually learning, works for both the Megapack and the Powerwall, and also supports solar, vehicle charging, and non-Tesla assets required for operating microgrids and utility-scale power plants, right from Tesla. Tesla is the world's only major vertically integrated energy storage provider.
So, real quick: Tesla's proprietary software, Auto Bidder. Just think of real-time energy trading and monetization of these energy assets. You can configure operational strategies that maximize revenue based on business objectives and risk preferences. When you hear about Tesla's proprietary Powerhub, just think advanced monitoring, the system that's collecting all of the data. Tesla's Microgrid Controller is actually linked with that Powerhub monitoring system, and it provides real-time control and intelligent load and solar forecasting. Tesla's Opticaster software is a machine learning and optimization engine for Tesla Energy software. It forecasts and optimizes energy in real time.
That brings us to the paradigm shift of Tesla's Virtual Machine Mode. Before you understand this, you need to understand how the grid works and the current system of inertia. Right now, the electrical grid consists of hundreds of generators rotating in lockstep at 60 cycles per second in the United States. This frequency basically measures the health of the grid. During normal operation, the supply of power equals the demand for electricity. So if there's a loss of one power plant, the supply of power will, of course, drop. However, demand stays the same. When this happens, the generators slow, and then there are governors that get things revved back up. It's actually the inertia that gives the system time to react while keeping the electricity on. Remember, it's these generators that are creating this inertia across the entire system.
However, as more renewables like wind and solar are added to the system, these are variable generators. Unlike the traditional ones, these use inverters instead of traditional generators. So when the traditional generators are turned off and replaced with these new forms, we have less inertia in the system. The good news is, if you replace those generators with something with a faster response, you don't need as much inertia in the system. This is where Tesla's Megapacks come in. These have incredibly rapid response times and software controls, like we just talked about. Wind plants can actually respond 10 times faster than traditional generators, and solar plants can be more than 50 times faster, and this is already happening in real-world systems.
Hopefully, with a clearer understanding of inertia in the grid and how it's being transformed, Tesla's Virtual Machine Mode is designed to address these stability challenges by virtually emulating mechanical inertia. Megapacks are doing this with built-in inverters, and they provide grid strength, respond to added and rejected loads, and maintain quality voltage at the point of interconnection. At the Hornsdale Power Reserve alone, this can provide up to 3,000 megawatt-seconds of inertia. Using the VMM, that's roughly half of the state's entire inertia needs.
I know this is not the most exciting topic, but I'm telling you, the innovation happening in Tesla's energy division, specifically with its software, is going to be a huge deal over the next two decades, especially once production limitations cease and Tesla actually has enough batteries to start scaling its energy division. More and more of the world will realize that this is actually a better and more financially viable solution than the current grid. And check this out: last year already, the renewable energy market was valued at almost one trillion dollars. We're still in the infancy stages, so over the next two decades, this is easily a multi-trillion-dollar market that Tesla is set to capitalize on. It's really not so much if, but more a matter of when. And yes, I'll be the first to tell you it may be closer to the back half of this decade, once there's more battery supply, but the time is coming.
It looks like LG Energy Solution is planning new battery factories in Europe, in response to increased demand in Europe for cylindrical batteries. And we know who uses those. LG said it aims to expand joint ventures for pouch and cylindrical batteries for strategic customers and EV startups in North America, and it's currently reviewing a 1.29 billion dollar investment in a cylindrical cell plant in Arizona, and will issue a statement in the next three months.
Worm Capital, an investment fund that holds Tesla as one of its core positions, put out a new letter to its investors, and of course they talk a lot about Tesla. I just want to highlight a few things, and I'm doing this because they were actually ahead of the curve on Tesla. They've been following them for a few years and really understand the details and intricacies of what Tesla is about. For this letter, they want to emphasize one thing they think Wall Street may miss: Tesla is in a class of one when it comes to manufacturing. In fact, they believe Tesla is ushering in an advanced manufacturing renaissance that will drive production speed, capacity, and margins at an accelerated pace. They also believe Tesla will soon be generating extreme levels of cash flow. I'm also going to steal their tagline here: speed is cash. For a product that has excessive demand, the speed at which a factory can build and deliver goods to customers enables free cash flow to grow dramatically.
For what it's worth, they walk through some basic math. If Tesla produces five million vehicles in the year 2024, which is a bit bullish, at an average sale price of 50k, that's 250 billion in revenue. Throw on a 20 percent net income margin, and that's 50 billion dollars in net income by the end of 2024.
이 실적 추정치를 바탕으로 보면 테슬라의 2024년 말 주가 예상치는 3,750달러입니다. 시가총액으로는 약 4조 달러 수준이죠. 제가 보기에 2024년까지 연간 500만 대 생산은 다소 공격적인 수치입니다. 대략 세 개 주요 공장에서 150만 대, 프리몬트 공장에서 50만 대가 나와야 한다는 계산인데, 프리몬트 공장은 75만 대까지도 가능할 것으로 봅니다. 물론 어디까지나 대략적인 추정치일 뿐이고, 흐름을 가늠해 보시라고 드리는 숫자입니다.
포르쉐가 타이칸 차량의 거의 절반에 해당하는 물량을 리콜하게 됐습니다. 상장을 앞둔 민감한 시점이라 더욱 곤혹스러운 상황이죠. 문제는 와이어 하네스 결함입니다. 이로 인해 안전벨트 프리텐셔너와 에어백이 작동하지 않을 수 있다고 합니다.
영상 마무리로 트레이드 커피를 소개합니다. 아침을 조금 더 흥미롭게 시작하고 싶은 분들은 할인 혜택도 꼭 챙겨 보시기 바랍니다.
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