저자: TomLee · 외국인
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Tom Lee는 미국 금융 시스템이 재편되며 금융주가 기술주 수준의 밸류에이션을 받을 수 있다고 주장하고, JP Morgan과 Goldman Sachs를 언급함. 진행자는 JPM의 ROTCE 21%, TBVPS 성장률 등 펀더멘털을 근거로 제시하고, PE가 Google 수준(20.95)이나 그 이상으로 리레이팅되면 JPM 주가가 크게 오를 수 있다는 시나리오를 계산함. 다만 시점은 불확실하다고 명시하며 진행자 본인은 JPM, BAC 등 금융주를 보유 중이라고 밝힘.
다듬은 글
Tom Lee has become the hottest name in financial media and he actually has a pretty good track record. And as I was listening to one of his interviews the other day, he discussed a couple of stocks he was interested in right now and made an extremely bold claim about the financial sector as a whole.
Now, the financial sector certainly has a place in my portfolio. In fact, if we look at my allocation, financials currently make up close to about 12% of my total portfolio. And what's interesting is a lot of my biggest winners have actually been financial stocks. For example, JP Morgan, I'm up around 187%.
Bank of America, 91.6%. Jeffre Financial, 120%. Financials have been on a huge run in the last 3 years. And financials actually make up a large portion of a lot of super investors portfolios. For example, financials is the largest sector in Buffett's portfolio at about 39 to 40%. But what Tom Lee just said about the financial sector is shocking.
So, I'm going to go ahead and play the clip. I was saying this last week, Tom, are you getting bored of the market? I I mean, I think there's a lot of clues coming that there are some really big things happening. Like I think one of the most clues coming for what? I think that one of the most interesting things is that the US financial system is about to get really rearchitected in a way that's like oil like imagine oil had all sudden these EMPs and stuff but the one difference is that the financial system could become like as big as the tech sector in terms of market cap
really like JP Morgan's PE could become a growth stock if if what well if they become less line on two things one is like the traditional financial architecture has a lot of um friction uh right because there's so many intermediaries in everything that's done including like how JP Morgan but Tom aren't they the friction
yeah why do they want to remove it that's their rake well but if they could make more rake so remember there's like power laws like as soon as the banks get involved in an industry they already have large share so there's they have the ability to do power law in anything they do and so like if they decide to go into like rearchitecting the bank,
they one of their biggest sort of saves or value capture is is the staffing of the industry could drop a lot. You know, Jmore has 200,000 people. You know, they could make more money with 5,000. So, I think that the financial industry could start to be trading like a tech sector multiple. Oh, I like that.
That's a call. So, that's very exciting. I belong in JP Morgan. Um I Goldman like the like J Morgan and Goldman and Morgan S they're going to be strong whatever they because they they have customer relationships that will follow them to whatever they do. So the metric for banks was tangible book that's like what they always say on TV and that's maybe that's not the metric anymore.
Correct. It it might be it'll and even things like credit cost and net mar net interest margin. It's going to change as a dynamic because like if JB Warren gets big in stable coins, they might make more money from stable coins than deposits, you know, like they may they may be a very different company
if uh I mean it's not out of the question to see a rerating like that because we're living through one in the utilities right now. Exactly. So it happens. So suddenly powers become a really important driver because of AI. Well, AI is converging onto the blockchain to create a crypto token economy. The financial system is the always the other side of that.
Like it's so if there's a big A story for tech, there's got to be a big crypto story for financials. Yeah. And that's that's why suddenly financials could become a huge percentage of the S&P. I like it. I like it. Now that is a bold claim. Tom Lee believes that it's possible that some of these bank stocks could be valued like tech stocks in the future.
And the two that he mentioned were JP Morgan Chase and Goldman Sachs. Now, to even understand where he's coming from, we have to understand how these bank stocks actually work. And for reference, stocks like JP Morgan have done really well over the last few years, we can see in the last 5 years up about 200%.
in the last 3 years up 163% and if we zoom out even more last 10 years 369%. Now what's interesting is if we look at the historical price to earnings ratios with the exception of 2018 late 2017 the current PE ratio for JP Morgan sitting at about 15.4 is the highest that we've seen it in quite some time.
So based on historical multiples, JP Morgan looks a little bit more on the expensive side. But at the same time, as we've seen from recent annual reports, recent earnings reports, JP Morgan is extremely efficient. If we look at their annual report from 2024, there's a couple of things we have to make note of when we're talking about bank stocks.
One of the key fundamental metrics we have to understand is tangible book value per share. Tangible book value per share is basically the liquidation value per share. It's basically going to be your common equity, not including any intangible assets like goodwill or patents. And then you just divide by shares outstanding.
For bank stocks, almost all their assets and liabilities are going to be things like loans, securities, and deposits. And so the higher tangible book value per share means the more the bank is literally worth in a liquidation event. And look at what's been going on with JP Morgan over the last few years.
Tangible book value per share in 2022, 73.12, 2023, 86.08, 08 2024 97.3. So it's been growing at a doubledigit rate very fast and that's one of the reasons JP Morgan is getting valued at a premium. Now to follow this up if we look at their recent earnings presentation on the very first slide the first thing they highlight is 21% ROTCE.
What does this mean? Again this is one of the key metrics for bank stocks. This is telling us the return on tangible common equity. So, not return on equity like we typically see, return on tangible common equity. It's basically telling us for every dollar of real equity, how much profit is JP Morgan generating?
Think about that statement for a moment. For every dollar of real equity, how much profit is JP Morgan generating? Well, we just saw this is the real equity they're talking about. It's growing at a high rate. For every dollar of Tangible book value per share, how much profit is JP Morgan generating?
And it's about 21%. That is extremely impressive. This is what Jaime Diamond constantly emphasizes. And this is also the reason that it's been so easy for JP Morgan to grow their dividends at a very healthy rate over the last few years. But what Tom Lee is stating that he believes is possible is as the financial sector changes as a whole.
What if JP Morgan starts making more from stable coins than deposits? What type of multiples will this stock be valued at? Well, let's just look at an example again using Forecaster, which I have a link to down in the description. You can check them out. But if we click on the fundamentals tab, we can see right now JP Morgan for the trailing 12 months generated about $19.53 in earnings per share.
Let's just create a blank spreadsheet and see what Tomley is talking about. 1953 again, that's earnings per share. And then we can see that the trailing 12 months PE ratio is sitting at 15.42. So we'll come up here and plug in 15.42. Now again this is how much earnings they're generating on a per share basis and this is how the market is valuing them.
This is how many times earnings investors are currently willing to pay for this stock. So this means the price is currently going to be the trailing 12 months PE ratio multiplied by earnings per share. JP Morgan is trading at $31.15 per share. Now again historically as we just saw on forecaster the PE ratio is actually the highest it's been in the last 5 years.
Now, you could argue this is justified due to those extremely efficient metrics that we just looked at on their annual report on their earnings report, but Tom Lee is saying this has the potential to go much higher. He's stating that some bank stocks have the potential to be valued like tech stocks in the future.
Now, it was a relatively broad statement. It wasn't too specific, but for reference, look at how the Mac 7 stocks are currently being valued. We have Google at about a 20.95 PE ratio. Meta 26.94, Apple and Microsoft around 31, 32, and Amazon at 34. Let's just play a game and assume that Tom Lee is right.
Maybe these bank stocks will be valued like tech stocks. Let's assume it gets valued as the lowest MAG 7 stock, Google, at about 20.95. What would that do to JP Morgan's valuation? Well, again, earnings wouldn't change, but if they were valued at a 20.95 PE ratio, you can see it's going to get pretty interesting.
We'll take this number and multiply by earnings per share and all of a sudden JP Morgan would be worth about $49.15 per share. Now again, that's the lowest end of the MAG 7 tech stocks. In reality, most tech stocks do trade at a higher multiple than Google does right now, which is another story in itself.
But if JP Morgan gets up to that maybe 24 25p ratio, you can see the valuation would be about $488.25. And again, that's without them growing earnings any. That's about 62% higher than the current price of JP Morgan. Now, obviously, this isn't something Tom Lee expects to happen overnight. It'll gradually happen as he believes the financial ecosystem will fundamentally change.
But if you have a company that's growing earnings the way that JP Morgan is, and at the same time seeing rapid multiple expansion, which is the part that Tom Lee believes is possible, that's how you easily get market beating returns. Now, on top of this, yes, JP Morgan's trading at about a 15.4 4 PE multiple.
But but look at what Goldman Sachs is trading at. We can see Goldman Sachs is currently trading at about a 16.3 PE multiple. So based off what Tom Lee is saying, that same type of multiple expansion opportunity is there for Goldman Sachs. And if you listen closely, he noted it's due to one thing. It's power law.
Now power law basically means that the relationship between variables isn't linear, it's exponential. To put it more simply, it basically means a few companies or products or customers will generate most of the value. It's kind of like the 8020 principle. And the example that Tom Lee gave was how just a few companies are taking part in the AI boom.
What he believes is that some of these big bank stocks will be the only companies able to take part in the crypto boom. So, what am I doing personally? Tom Lee definitely brings up some really important insights to think about, but at the same time, it will take a while to see whether or not anything he said actually comes true.
However, I do think there is something to be said about holding some of these big bank stocks, especially as we see the financial landscape change. And that's exactly what I've been doing for a while now. As I showed you earlier, I own stocks like JP Morgan and Bank of America, some of the largest banks in the US.
And so, even though some of these financial stocks, some of these bank stocks are trading at PE ratios that are certainly a bit higher than they've historically traded at, you can see why that's the case when you actually dig into some of these annual reports, some of these earnings reports. And you can definitely see why it's the case for the big bank stocks as the global financial landscape has the potential to change in the future.
Tom Lee referenced power law. And in reality, that's already taking place with the big bank stocks. Out of hundreds of stocks, only a handful like JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, or Goldman Sachs are able to deliver that doubledigit tangible book value per share growth rate. And this is why these banks dominate with their long-term returns.
And it's why they're much better positioned to handle a changing global financial landscape. Go ahead and let me know what you think of Tom Lee's thoughts down below. And if you'd like to test out the software I was using in this video, forecaster.biz, you can do so at the link in the description. Be sure to check it out.
So, with all that being said, thank you guys so much for watching and please don't forget to like and subscribe to the
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