저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
연준 잭슨홀 연설 이후 금리 인하 기대로 증시가 사상 최고치를 기록 중이며, 금리 인하 확률 89.3%(9/17)가 근거다. 역사적으로 대형주는 시간의 약 2/3를 신고가 10% 이내에서 보내므로 신고가 부근 매수 회피는 실수다. 장기 투자자는 시장 타이밍보다 시장 잔류가 중요하며, 최근 S&P500은 5년간 거의 두 배가 됐다. 구글은 PER가 평균 대비 낮아(21.5) 매력적이라는 주장, 버핏 인용으로 광범위 지수 적립식 투자와 좋은 기업 장기 보유를 강조.
다듬은 글
The market is soaring to new all-time highs. And really, it's due to one reason. If we jump over to forecaster, the AI agent will show us. The Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole gave us a clue as to what they might do for future interest rate cuts, and the market seems quite optimistic.
In fact, during Powell's speech, he indicated that conditions may warrant interest rate cuts as the Fed proceeds carefully. Now on a more quantitative basis, we can actually see when we look at the probabilities for the target rate, there is now an 89.3% chance that we get a rate cut on September 17th.
Now, we have to remember the old Warren Buffett quote, "Interest rates are to asset prices what gravity is to the Apple. When there are low interest rates, there is a very low gravitational pull on asset prices." So, what Jerome Powell is telling us is that gravitational pull on asset prices is going to be weakening here in the coming months.
And as a result, again, the market is soaring to all-time highs, and my portfolio is at all-time highs as a result as well. I'm now currently sitting at about 236 237,000. Now, when we look at the S&P 500, it's nearly doubled now in the last 5 years. And I see all the time investors making comments of how they don't want to put in capital when the market is at new all-time highs, or they don't want to invest in a stock because it's at a 52- week high.
I see this very frequently and it's a clear reminder of how short-term oriented we can be even when we consider ourselves long-term investors. This is something I was talking about on Twitter just the other day. But staying away from stocks just because they're at all-time highs can be one of the biggest mistakes you can make.
Here's why. Large cap stocks typically spend around 2/3 of the time within 10% of their all-time highs. So being at an all-time high is not a rare occurrence whatsoever. On top of this, these new all-time highs doesn't mean the market is simply reverting back to the previous all-time high. In reality, the highs keep getting higher and higher.
Look at all the new all-time highs the S&P 500 continues to hit decade after decade, year after year in most instances. The reality is the market is constantly hitting new all-time highs. In the 2010s, 242 in the 2020s. At the time this data was put together, it was 110, but it's quite a bit more than that now.
Just think how much money you would have lost by avoiding the market because it was at an all-time high. Just look at this study that was released by JP Morgan in August of 2020. If we only invested on days when the market was at all-time highs, we would still be seeing phenomenal returns from our portfolio.
Now, with that being said, valuation still matters, especially if you have a shortterm time horizon. So, what does it mean for us as investors when the S&P 500 is trading at an all-time high? Well, really, it means the same thing as always. We're looking for companies that have a disconnect between the fundamentals and their share price.
The obvious example of this would be United Health Group. This is the company that Warren Buffett's Birkshshire Hathaway just added to their portfolio. Now, there is a caveat to this one because the DOJ is investigating them. So, it's not a perfect example, but here's what I want to point out. Look at the sales growth of this company over the last 5 years.
We can see as the sales growth goes higher, the share price went higher. But right now, we have a huge disconnect between the share price and the sales. The same is true with the dividends that the company is paying out. And the same is definitely true with the price toearnings multiple. Now again, this isn't a perfect example because of the DOJ investigation.
But what about another company? What about a company like Google? We can see again the share price following the net income growth of the company. When net income took a bit of a dip in 2022, the share price followed and as it recovered again the share price followed. But look at the difference in the price toearnings multiple for Google.
For most of the past five years, that price to earnings multiple was in the range of around 28 to maybe to maybe around 24. But right now, it is significantly lower than its average. If we jump over to the fundamental tab here on forecaster, we can see it's sitting at just 21.53, making it by far the cheapest of the magnificent seven stocks.
Now, what we have to remember as investors is it's nearly impossible to time the market. You could buy a stock that's undervalued and continue to underperform the market for years, but over the long term, the share price always follows fundamentals. This is why it's so important if you have a long time horizon to stay in the market.
What we're looking at here charted out is the value of $500,000 invested in 1988, if you missed the 50 best days in the market over that time period, your investment would have grown to about 1.2 million. If you would have missed the best 10 days, your portfolio would have grown to 7.2 million. But if you stayed fully invested this entire time during the market downturns like the dotcom crash, like the global financial crisis, like the COVID crisis, your portfolio would have grown to 15.9 million.
So again, yes, valuation matters even more so if you have a short-term time horizon. But there's certainly still opportunities where the share price has a disconnect from the fundamentals. And forecaster.biz does a great job of visualizing this. I have a link to them down in the description. But to wrap things up, I don't want you to just take my word for it.
I want to play this clip from Warren Buffett on how to invest at all-time highs. So, I would pick a broad index, but I wouldn't toss a chunk in at any one time. I would do it over a period of time because the the very nature of index funds is that you are saying I think America's business is going to do well over a reasonably well over a long period of time but I don't know enough to pick the winners and I don't know enough to pick the winning times.
There's nothing wrong with that. I don't know enough to pick the winning times. Occasionally I think I know enough to pick a winner but not very often. And I certainly can't pick winners by going down through the whole list and saying this is a winner and this isn't and so on. So the important thing to do if you have an overall feeling that business is a reasonable place to have your money over a long period of time is to invest over a long period of time and not make any bet implicitly by putting a big chunk in at a given time.
Yeah. Well, I I won't comment on the three companies that you've named. But in in general terms, unless you find the the prices of a great company really offensive, if you if you feel you've identified it, and by definition, a great company is one that's going to remain great for 30 years. If it's going to be great a great company for three years, you know, it ain't a great company.
I mean it uh uh so you really want to go along with the uh the idea of something that if you were going to take a trip for 20 years, you wouldn't feel bad leaving leaving uh uh the money and with no orders with your broker and no power of attorney or anything and you just go on the trip and you know you come back and it's going to be a terribly strong company.
Uh I think it's better just to own them. I mean, you know, we could uh we could attempt to buy and sell some of the things that that we own that we think are fine businesses, but they're too hard to find. I mean, we we found seized candy in 1972 where we find here and there we get the opportunity to do something, but they're too hard to find.
So to to sit there and hope that you buy them in the in the throws of some panic uh you know that you'd sort of take the attitude of a of uh uh a mortician you know waiting for a flu epidemic or something. I mean it it I'm not sure that that uh I'm not sure that's a will be a great technique. I mean it may be great if you inherit you know Paul Getty inherited the money at the bottom in 32.
I mean, he didn't inherit exactly. He talked his mother out of it. But but it's it's true, actually. Close enough. Yeah. Close enough. Right. But he uh he benefited enormously by by having access to a lot of cash in 19 in the early 30s that he didn't have access to in the in the late 20s. And so you'd get some accidents like that.
Uh but that's that's a lot to count on. And you know, if you start with the Dow at X and you're and you think it's too high, you know, when it goes to 90% of X, do you buy? Well, if it does and it goes to 50% of X, it gets uh uh you know, you you never get the benefit of those extremes anyway, unless you just come into some accidental sum of money at some time.
So, I I think the main thing to do is find wonderful businesses. So, we've had our share of flu epidemics, but uh you don't want to spend your life waiting around for them. So, there you go. words from Warren Buffett himself. Now, if you enjoyed this video, be sure to check out forecaster.biz at the link in the description for a discount.
This is the exact same tool that I was using throughout the video. So, with all that being said, thank you guys so much for watching and please don't forget to like and subscribe to the
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