저자: KevinPaffrath · 외국인
요약 보기
비트코인과 증시 강세 신호를 언급하지만, 고용 둔화(신규고용 월 약 10만 명대로 급감, 공석 감소, 장기 실업자 증가)와 GDP 성장 둔화를 근거로 경기침체 가능성을 경고. 과거 주식 상승기에도 고용이 따라오지 않았다는 사례(2000년 닷컴, 2007년)를 들어 주가 상승이 고용을 보장하지 않는다고 주장. 비트코인은 단기 10만달러대 상단 가능성을 제시하되 이익실현 조정을 경고.
다듬은 글
A quick note before we begin. Yesterday in our Alpha report, I mentioned seven days of positive momentum for GameStop. Volatility is low . January call options with a strike price of $30 only cost you about 12%. Potentially profitable if you believe the momentum is just beginning. And look what happened yesterday.
You started with a low of around $24 and ended the day up almost nine...sorry, almost 10%. To be exact, by 9.57%. Which is pretty good. This option made a profit yesterday. And if you want to receive these trading ideas absolutely free—I call it my Alpha report, where I share observations on volatility, momentum, etc.— just go to meetkevin.com/alpha and sign up.
This is meetkevin.com/alpha. It's completely free . We will also extend the free access period, and frankly , I have no plans to monetize it yet. Hello everyone, this is Kevin. Wow, we have some very optimistic news about Bitcoin and possibly the economy. But there is also something pessimistic that is worth talking about.
So, we need to balance these two things. Let's get started. First, Bank of America just announced that its U.S. equity stake has reached its highest level since 2013 following the 2012 presidential election, amid economic optimism. Note that in 2013, fears of a double-dip recession, which were very strong in 2010, 2011, and 2012, began to fade, and home prices were rising—the opposite of what we see in many markets today, where home prices are falling.
There was job growth and we didn't have an inverted yield curve, whereas now we have fewer jobs and we are in a situation with a significantly inverted yield curve. So, the reference to 2013 has some pessimistic elements, but that's not the negative news we're going to talk about. It is worth noting that the market has essentially been in a bear market since 2013, after managing to avoid a second wave of recession in 2013, although it was never a real threat.
I was working in a business environment at the time. I remember this very clearly, especially in real estate. But whatever it was, the market was actually growing steadily until COVID. Truly impressive and very optimistic. This morning, Bank of America published a report , according to which, while earlier, before the election, 10% more investors predicted a weakening of the economy next year, now the situation has changed.
Now the indicator has changed from minus 10% to plus 23% of investors expecting stronger global growth next year. I don't know if it's because Jerome Powell says, "Oh, yeah, you know, growth next year could actually be a pleasant surprise." And part of me is a little surprised: Where are you getting this from?
Are you just saying this in the hope of stimulating such growth? I don't know. But it is worth noting that now twice as many fund managers consider stocks to be overvalued than before the elections. So we are clearly at a high bias level for stocks. And that makes some people wonder: " Okay, will there ever be a peak here?" And what are you going to talk about in the context of a bearish trend?
The bear factor I'm about to talk about is one of the scariest things I've ever seen. But we'll get to that in a moment. First, I want to look at Bitcoin. So, in my opinion, this is a bullish signal for Bitcoin. But in my opinion, based on several different economic or technical analyses that I've done, I think the next stop for Bitcoin is either the 102,000-103,000 range , or maybe even 109,000, depending on where you place the support level for the Fibonacci extensions.
I think that's optimistic in the long run . But that doesn't necessarily mean we'll get to that position right away. After we hit 90,000, we started seeing profit taking until 3 a.m. California time. Well, more like 2:50. That was just when my alarm went off . We have started to grow again, but again, we are already starting to see some profit fixation.
So I'm just warning you: always expect "red " days after significant growth. But Kevin , what is this bearish factor you keep talking about? Well, I was talking to my wife Lauren the other day, and she asked me, "Hey, you know what the odds are that the economy will grow faster than we expected next year, and that we can avoid a recession?" And her question is very apt.
This is a fairly straightforward question: " Okay, maybe if the stock market goes up and Bitcoin goes up as much as it is now, we can encourage companies and businesses to hire more people, which will expand economic growth and allow us to avoid a recession." Because now we are seeing the number of vacancies rapidly falling.
But we also see that the unemployment rate is trending upward. Of course, there have been some fluctuations over the past few months . We had a really good September. We had a bad October. If you take the average, things slow down considerably. Sorry. Compared to where we were , we were creating over 200,000 jobs per month for the first 6 months on average.
Now, all of a sudden, we're creating less than 105,000, somewhere between 103 and 104 thousand jobs on average for each of the last 3 months. This is a huge decline. In addition, the number of vacancies is falling rapidly, which usually happens before a recession. Although vacancies have been falling for quite some time.
So some people think it's just normalization. And none of this is too pessimistic. We've all seen this before, including the rise in the number of unemployed people looking for work for 27 weeks or more, which really only happens during or after recessions . Like, for example, in the mid-70s, when there was a kind of post-recessionary recovery surge.
And many believe that it was actually just part of that recession. Whereas here we had a post- recessionary boom, then a recession, and now we're growing again, which must mean that we...oh, let me cover that up a little bit. It must mean that we are moving into a recession, not out of it. So, Kevin, what was the most pessimistic thing I saw?
Well, I decided to turn to history. I wanted to look, "Hey, Lauren, let's just look at the historical data of what happened when stocks went up and what kind of hiring we saw." So let's talk about it. We'll do it here on the iPad. Here's what I discovered. When the stock market was reaching all-time highs, like when the NASDAQ 100 peaked in October 2007, about a month after the Fed's first 50 basis point rate cut , the NASDAQ 100 index was at 4,314.
Okay, keep that in mind. So now the question is: were we creating jobs in 2007, when the stock market was hitting all-time highs, or perhaps even right after that? And what did I discover? Oh. Yes, okay. I just want to make sure the microphone is working. I found out that it wasn't. In fact, job creation peaked in 2006.
So it's worth remembering that the stock market doesn't necessarily stimulate employment growth . In fact, I would argue that it has nothing to do with employment growth at all, especially since the money can simply evaporate just as it was created when stocks rose. It doesn't necessarily get passed on to someone who could then spend it on creating jobs.
So I thought, "Okay, maybe it was only in 2006-7 ." Then I looked: " What about the dot-com bubble?" And I saw that we peaked in February 2000 at 8,721. Optimism around this , that, the fifth, the tenth. And what did we ultimately find out about jobs? Did we create more jobs when the stock market was at its peak in early 2000?
Well, the answer is no. In fact, the job growth we saw was pretty steady for about 3 years before and during the dot-com bubble . Throughout this entire upswing, we haven't actually created more jobs. Employment growth was at zero. Instead, what happened was that employment growth peaked in May 2000 and fell sharply by December 2000, before we entered a recession.
And this actually coincided with the decline in stocks. The reason this is as bearish a signal as it is written here is because it's terrible. The rise in the stock market has not led to an increase in hiring, which is the opposite of what seems logical. And when the stock market went down, hiring actually declined, and we eventually slid into a recession.
This is not very good. Then I asked myself: okay, what actually creates jobs? And I found that it's not strong GDP that creates jobs, but accelerating GDP. So when the acceleration level, in other words, you press your big toe on the gas pedal harder, or you're in an airplane. I like the airplane analogy.
And the pilot pushes the thrust lever forward harder. Have you ever flown on a plane? And then you kind of level out right after takeoff and you think, "Oh, wow, that was a weird feeling." Well, is that because you have n't left the airspace yet, and often as soon as you leave it, you feel them pressurize the engine again, and you feel like you're taking off again?
Yes, this also accelerates GDP. It's a feeling of, "Wow, we're getting a real boost." We are getting some traction. Who doesn't love more traction? Well, look at this. And that's why when you look at this graph, you see an almost perfect correlation between GDP and jobs. Look at the period from 2004 to 2006.
The blue line is GDP, the red line is job creation , or both of these lines show the percentage change year over year. And the more jobs we created, the higher the share of annual job growth would be . So you see this relationship: GDP grows, jobs grow. Unless you're going into a recession. GDP could have jumped in 2000, it was kind of bubble territory, but jobs didn't respond because people probably understood, " This is a bit like a bubble." We will not be hiring here.
And, surprisingly, people are actually quite good at making these kinds of business decisions in companies. Not necessarily the best at valuing stocks, but that's okay, that's different. Next, here we have GDP again in blue and jobs in red, only this time it's a cross-section of the 1980s. After the recession, the recession is over, GDP is growing, the number of employees is growing.
No recession in 1986, GDP is growing, the number of workers is growing. Very simple. Here is a review of this data over the past 70 years. The correlation is simply strikingly clear. No recession here, in the mid-60s, GDP is growing, jobs are growing. Very simple. Well, what's happening right now? Well, that's it.
GDP is falling, jobs are being lost. So, we are actually slowing down. We are actually reducing the engine's thrust. This is bad. Actually, I think it's terrible. So my original answer to Lauren was actually wrong. I assumed that when the stock market rose, businesses would feel more confident and hire more people.
But it doesn't work that way. People only hire more when sales are increasing, there is growing confidence that we are not heading into a recession, and GDP is expanding. Well, we don't see confidence rising to levels that would suggest we won't enter a recession. And usually confidence still lags behind real data.
GDP is slowing, jobs are falling, and the stock market is at all-time highs, pricing in perfection, frankly. Excellence in the Trump administration . And you haven't even seen any real profit-taking yet, except for what's starting to happen a little bit with Bitcoin. So, thank you all for watching this video.
Good luck to you all. Be sure to subscribe to the channel if this was useful to you . And friends, promote what you what happen. With you is Kevin Paffrath, opinion.
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