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트럼프 취임 첫날(Day 1) 정책 계획을 정리한 영상. 대규모 추방 작전 준비, 임시보호지위(TPS) 종료 가능성, 예산조정(reconciliation)을 통한 세금 정책(팁 무과세, 사회보장세 조정), 이란 최대압박 2.0과 LNG·석유 수출 확대, 관세(중국 60%, 기타 10~20%) 가능성, EPA 규제 완화, 1월 6일 관련자 사면 가능성 등을 다룸. 시장 영향은 제한적이며 세금 변화는 2026년쯤 체감될 것이라 봄. 시장 심리는 탐욕 구간이며 소수 종목 주도 장세라 조정 가능성을 언급하고, 정기 적립식 투자를 권장.
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this is going to be a really detailed video on what to expect on day one and how it could affect you now if you want to know how I'm trading during the day in reaction to some of these announcements make sure to be a part of the stocks and psychology of money group linked down below you get all my trade alerts every time I make a day trade a swing trade a long trade any kind of trade alert that I got to send you I send it to you there so make sure you're a part of that linked below let's get started hey everyone me Kevin here oh boy Donald Trump's day one is already shaping up you can't make this up but just this morning front page of the Wall Street Journal the top article Trump advisers ramp up work on mass deportation push to get started essentially on day one and so in this video what we're going to do is we're going to talk about the massive dictator on day one plans for what Donald Trump is thinking when it comes to deportations tax breaks what can Donald Trump do what about natural gas and oil what about benefits to you and what does this mean to you in the stock market let's break down everything we know about Donald Trump's dictator on day one plans and when I say that it's not meant to be a slam like the Democrats used it instead it's just quoting Donald Trump so we'll keep it neutral here and let's just get into the actual policies so I think that's usually what can unite us is talking about actual policy and they're going all right well Kevin what does this actually mean for us let's get into it first let's hit this deportation article advisers for Trump are already planning the massive deportations that Donald Trump promised during his campaign and keep in mind his closing line when he walk well basically wrapped up his acceptance speech his closing line was promises made Promises Kept so buckle up you're about to see some of these get executed let's see how they end up working but first think about this contrast a Joe Biden had a rule not to pursue illegals who entered the country and then subsequently did not commit other crimes so in other words if you got into the country you sort of had this Florida style wetfoot dry foot policy where if you got in you made it to the US and you just didn't break any other laws they didn't really chase you down or prosecute you Donald Trump plans to end that right away in fact he might go as far as declaring a National Emergency on day one or soon after he begins his presidency to use the military assets which could be the National Guard or other National or military bases throughout the country to basically begin Mass deporting people so think about it like rounding folks basically up in convoys bringing them to military bases and flying them out on c130s lined up like troops going to war discussions of this began months before the election in terms of how they're going to plan to Target 1.3 million immigrants with final deportation orders they're going to find them round them up and send them out uh this does include some with criminal convictions and Donald Trump argues that he's going to find the other 8 million as well that came into the country illegally and Deport all of them potentially up to as many of 20 million although the 20 million number is a number that's been debated uh it's unclear if there actually are 20 million undocumented immigrants in the country some people say it's closer to 11 million and that grew to around 13 or maybe 14 under Biden you know Donald Trump says it was or sort of implies it was zero and turned into 20 million when when Biden took over the numberers somewhere in between there but anyway this is a big deal in fact there are a lot of people who have families in the United States uh and and they are frankly part of undocumented families I mean we still got to get to tax policy and there's a lot to cover but I think it's worth listening to this one listen to this one for a moment that one day they would come home and he wouldn't be here so he lives in the shadows the family asks we don't show his face or share his name because they worry he could be deported I don't make any trouble I just go work and coming home my family is sear from me tonight millions of families brace for what's next expectedly life is probably about to change for families like this because even though they've been living in the shadows already they might have to go even deeper into the Shadows I know of undocumented immigrants who are now trying to get further and further away from the border on purpose they won't even travel to areas like San Diego to purposefully stay away from potential Roundup efforts that you know might start having tracking efforts begin now before for the Trump presidency as depart the Departments like the Department of Homeland Security prepare it's kind of interesting advisers for Trump are already considering declaring National emergencies on day one to repurpose Pentagon funds to basically get more money to be able to do and conduct this deportation right away now Donald Trump has promised that this would be a day one National Emergency I'm skeptical that it's actually going to happen on day one but if it does this could be the largest deportation in history says the Wall Street Journal Donald Trump plans to renegotiate remain in Mexico and intends to revoke the temporary protected status that Millions uh may I mean probably Millions at this point but the Biden Administration says in the upper you know 7 800,000 range but probably millions of Haitians Venezuelans Afghans ukrainians and others who entered the United States received so they could have temporary protected status they get to stay here they get they could get a driver's license they can get a taxpayer identification number they can have work authorization and they're allowed to stay here for a period of 1 2 years and sometimes that gets extended in perpetuity or they marry somebody who's an American they become American themselves and then they're basically here forever so uh representative chip Roy says uh that a lot of these protective statuses or and he's a republican were issued illegally and therefore should be disregarded anyway and uh even though they're going to try to start with voluntary deportations they think there's going to be a big and massive Roundup effort now this is where taxation comes up and where we can talk about some of Donald Trump's plans for using budget reconciliation this is a really fancy and complicated phrase but just think about it this way if you want to pass a bill let's say this is a bill you want to pass this bill through Congress you have to get through a filibuster which requires 60 votes in the Senate well if you do something through budget reconciliation that is it has something to do with the debt limit revenue or spending you could bypass that 60 vote rule and you could get policy done with just a simple majority which is 50 plus 1 in the Senate which the Republicans have this means through budget reconciliation Donald Trump could potentially limit the inflation reduction act get rid of EV tax credits I don't actually think think he will but he says he will issue new potential tax cuts and tax changes such as no taxes on tips uh potential Social Security tax changes we'll touch on those a little bit more in a moment uh but you could potentially also throw in more funding for the Department of Homeland Security and the military to get these Mass deportations underway this is really interesting some members of Congress are already talking about how you can impose new fees as part of the immigration process to actually fund deportations see right now application fees for Asylum for example are totally free but they bog our country down in massive bureaucratic Pro processes to try to deal with the court hearings without any sort of funding the Trump administration's advisor saying let's charge for this maybe Char I mean the way I think about it is yeah maybe charg for legal immigration and then what you do is you cut out all of the illegal organizations and cartels that make money bringing people to the United States just charge a fee and say hey we'll have a streamlined legal way to do it and you don't have to risk your life you know going swimming across rivers or whatever it's crazy anyway uh these are all expected to be part of a larger budget reconciliation process really early in the Trump campaign uh in addition to this we expect that Donald Trump let's just kind of get on social Social Security since we're on the topic of uh of taxes here uh Donald Trump when it comes to Social Security might not do a full removal of no tax on social security income but what they might do is sort of a uh phased or laded approach where what they could do is and this would just be sort of a way to make sure they they can balance some of their funding what they might do is say hey we're going to issue no tax on tips maybe will bring back some of the state and local tax deductions which generally benefit States like California New York and Jersey uh and also limit some of the taxes on Social Security income but only for those who have reached a certain age so for example maybe at retirement age you pay normal taxes on your social security income but maybe that starts fading away once you hit thresholds like 70 75 80 or whatever or maybe there's going to be some form of means testing where you know somebody who is a millionaire who's collecting Social Security they pay taxes on their social security but somebody who has a net worth under a certain amount maybe they don't pay taxes on their social security so stay tuned for details on this so that's immigration deportation ATT taxes then I mean yesterday foreign policy this is going to be crazy yesterday we heard about this assassination plan or plot by a farage shakiri uh he's actually an Afghan and uh he's in Iran apparently right now they've unsealed charges against him the FBI has recorded phone calls while in Iran allegedly on this person this person spent 14 years in prison for robbery and people expect that these sort of plots and uh and basically antagonist how would you phrase this this antagonism against Donald Trump will just aggravate Trump to get even harder and exert maximum pressure 2.0 against Iran now remember previously Donald Trump limited uh oil sales by Iran to other countries by basically sanctioning countries that were buying oil from them he also tore up the Iran nuclear deal now they expect to potentially go maximum pressure 2.0 and say no buying oil from Iran again unless we get some kind of win-win deal from Iran and it has to be a deal on Trump's terms so he says now uh one of the things that sort of goes with this new maximum pressure campaign on Iran is expanding the oil industry in the United States one of the things that he could potentially do is push for more liquefied natural gas exports and new export terminals in the United States basically a way to try to bring more Revenue to the United States for exporting natural gas which we get plenty of through fracking as well as obviously our oil industry Biden paused new natural gas export Terminals and if Donald Trump starts rebuilding them or authorizing them we wouldn't actually see them probably for another 5 years or so but you could expect to see very rapid changes on some of the pollution restrictions around oil and natural gas see Donald Trump expects to revoke waivers that allow States like California to tighten pollution standards and make it very difficult for industry in California for example to transport fossil fuels or to even expand existing natural gas peer plants for example with more efficient equipment when I ran for governor in California what we found was that California even though you had natural gas peer plants from the 70s that were in operations those plants had trouble updating their plants to 2024 Technologies or at the time 2021 Technologies because the rules in California say unless you're 100% green you just can't update so even though you could have 50-year newer and cleaner technology regulation wanted it to be 100% green and you just can't do it that's California for you and Donald Trump wants to kill uh some of those regulatory burdens on the oil and natural gas industry Donald Trump expects to install an energy Zar to help coordinate these cuts and uh really his goal is let's expand the supply of fossil fuels rather than trying to constrain demand which was more popular under the Biden Administration to try to limit the demand this was associated with the EV mandate for example even though obviously energy that goes into batteries does come from fossil fuels yeah the efficiency is a little bit better for electric vehicles topic for a different video uh Donald Trump has made his intentions very clear uh now as far as tariffs everybody's sort of confused as to exactly what Donald Trump is going to do when it comes to tariffs if you look at what Morgan Stanley says about tariffs they well let's just look at it Morgan Stanley estimates that a 60% tariff on China and 10% tariff on the rest of the world all at once could end up boosting core inflation about about nine basis point Sorry 90 basis points .9% and could end up reducing gross domestic product by around 1 and a half percentage points they're hoping that there will be a little bit more of a phased in approach for tariffs or they question is is Donald Trump's approach just basically uh a form of negotiating and in doing so maybe we won't actually get day one tariffs we'll just get a lot of negotiations around threats of tariffs which might end up being best case scenario especially if we can uh work out deals that are win-win for the United States I suppose we'll see but the proposed tariffs right now 60% on China up to 10 to 20% all the rest of the countries in the world not that great especially the amount of tariffs that could be layered on South American countries as well even potentially Mexico to sort of limit the expansion of the Chinese Auto industry painful these sort of tariffs could also help contribute to pushing or keeping countries like Germany in recession as tariffs could affect European countries as well and Germany's struggling right now I'm getting me started about the collapse of the German uh coalition government we we'll get to that in a different video as well make sure to subscribe to the channel by the way if you want these sort of insights but anyway uh Donald Trump uh proposes lighter regulations on uh mergers for the oil and gas industry and sort of uh honestly mergers in general I mean think spirit and JetBlue that got blocked and now spirit's filing bankruptcy certainly seemed like that deal should have gone through uh Donald Trump plans to pull out of the US uh Paris excuse me the uh Us's joining of the Paris climate Accord again remember the US joined it Trump left it Biden joined it again and now Trump plans to leave it again he could potentially end the rest of the inflation reduction Act tax credits loosen these EPA rules and potentially move the EPA out of Washington DC some say this is to minimize the connection of the EPA to environmental lawyers and lobbyists uh the EPA says they're a big fan of trying to provide environmental justice Biden wanted 40% of environmental benefits to go to poorer areas Donald Trump said says all this stuff just makes everything more expensive and you got to get rid of it now Donald Trump uh also uh expects to uh potentially again remove protections for federal land that potentially increase risks to endangered species but could open up more land to natural gas and oil drilling or fracking uh in his last Administration he opened up about 10 million Acres of public lands to fossil fuels he also plans to invoke what's known as the uh Enemy Within attacks now there have been a lot of folks saying you can't Target Americans using the military to Target enemies within there's this thing called the uh posi katus Act of 1878 which does not allow active duty troops to participate in civilian law enforcement uh however there are two loopholes here number one you could use the National Guard which is exempt from this and under title 32 if they're controlled by the state they can indeed uh basically enforce laws with local law enforcement and Round Up enemies within uh or you could use title 10 and use the National Guard on a national level that would require Congressional approval but it only requires a simple majority which Trump has Donald Trump is also expected to uh pardon the uh quote unquote January 6th hostages now this one I think is really interesting because I just saw a piece about somebody who broke a door uh getting sentenced to I think it was 9 years boy it was somewhere in here you know I might just try Googling it I I saved it on my desk but I think some one of the January 6 folks just got sentenced uh to uh 9 years for breaking down a door uh and uh a lot of these oh sorry it's eight years a lot of these folks uh could end up getting pardoned by Donald Trump take a look at this article right here a man who stormed the US capital and smashed glass panels on a door moments before a police officer fatally shot another Rider climbing through the opening this would be Ashley babbit right was sentenced on Thursday to 8 years in prison so in other words right after the election like 2 days after this person got sentenced to 8 years so they're probably like oh my gosh please pardon me especially if they don't actually have to report to jail for a while Zachary Alam was one of the first riers sent this week uh since this week's electoral Victory by President Trump before learning of his sentence uh he called uh for a pardon of patriotism uh I want a full pardon with the benefits that come with it uh for being a patriot this is a 35-year-old Air Force veteran from oh sorry Ashley babbett was the 35-year-old Ashley veteran Alam used a helmet to breach a barricade uh to the speaker's Lobby doors interesting uh in the same area where Ashley babbett tried to climb through the shattered glass jury convicted a LOM last year of 10 counts including a felony charge that he obstructed the Congressional certification of Biden's Victory Alam conceded that he broke the law on January 6 but he says I believe in my heart that I was doing the right thing sometimes you have to break the rules to do what's right footage of alam exhorting the mob to attack members of Congress before they escaped and then punching out windows of the barricade protecting them was streamed to viewers around the world which made him immediately Infamous should try to Google this guy just to see if we could get a picture of him I remember covering uh the um the event completely on uh on j6 you can actually watch my stream on that there he is oh yeah here's this punching the glass y That's the Ashley babbit window wow that was right here because they ended up retreating there's the broken glass uh and um or this could be after Ashley babbit was shot I'm not sure uh because the they cleared this area out after Ashley babett was shot just remember watching it live it was it was intense H anyway okay let's uh let's get to more of the coverage here so uh pardoning on day one could happen this person could get pardoned Donald Trump also promises to fire woke uh generals and uh especially special counsel Jack Smith pledges to drill baby drill uh he has in the past pledged to fire Jerome Powell which Jerome Powell says would be illegal and he would not step down but Donald Trump could fire him on the basis of um neglect in his duty or mal fence by basically arguing jome Powell screwing something up he'll probably fire Gary gendler to as he says end the persecution of crypto uh he will probably also ban uh gender affirming care for minors this will get sued like crazy but he'll do it uh he's talked about getting rid of the Department of Education which he could do with Congress you probably need 60 votes to pull that off though so you'll probably get blocked by democrats on this one and he's wavered on this before because he's argued that some states are going to need the help that they just suck and can't figure it out alone we talked about no taxes on tips uh and uh we've talked about the potential uh for tariffs which a lot of folks like Stanley dren Miller worry will be inflationary but then others say hey you know what there's no guarantee that he's actually going to go through with it so don't worry about it so much all right interesting uh so these are some of Donald Trump's day one plans now what does all of this mean for us well day one plans probably could be pretty dang dramatic uh Donald Trump has planned so much for day one and he's had a day one before which I hear a lot of presidents talk about oh yeah we're going to do a lot on day one and then they just don't I mean Biden did promise to end the Keystone XL pipeline which I think he did on day two if I'm not mistaken so we'll give that one to him but Donald Trump has had a day one before I wouldn't be surprised if he actually does end up pulling off what he's looking to do and you'll get the pardons I think that'll happen I think you probably are going to get the state of emergency On the Border that would make sense but you're really going to need that budget reconciliation process to really get the funding ramp up uh and start actually working Mass deportations so I don't think you'll start seeing those deportations day one uh but you might see some end to some of the temporary protected statuses which is going to suck for a lot of people who are here on those statuses but then again like a lot of people say and Trump says oh they should leave and come back through the appropriate channel so they could appropriately be vetted uh as far as markets I think Donald Trump's day one policies are less likely to affect markets because even if Donald Trump has tax policy change even on day one it would probably take until 2026 for you to realize any tax policy change so I don't really see your money being affected on day one day one would likely be more gender affirment care EPA rules uh tax rules wouldn't really affect until 2026 uh and then of course if you're an undocumented immigrant there would be concerns I would say probably even before day one uh just because agencies are going to start preparing for day one beforehand uh as far as uh you know this idea of inflation I'm not terribly worried about that mostly because most companies have a lack of pricing power right now uh I think a greater concern would be are we going to be in a recession by the time Donald Trump takes office or are we trending towards one a lot of that is going to depend on jobs reports it's possible that after Donald Trump won companies start going on a hiring spree and you actually just totally avoid a recession because Donald Trump won and you get a total reversal in jobs which would be fantastic for the economy that is possible uh and that'll also be really good for my real estate startup house hack which if you want to invest in by the way you can go to house act.com to learn more about that this video is not a solicitation read the PPM uh as far as uh let's see here so we talked tax policy changes uh the stock market on day one I think most of of the enthusiasm for Trump will be priced in before Trump actually takes office that does create some risks of disappointment once he does take office uh although some of that could be driven by what ends up happening with the labor market so it's almost certainly too soon to tell but markets have started pricing in Trump before the election and then have continued pricing him in afterwards now we're going to get to okay cool are these valuations fair and could there be a correction either between now and the uh the actual inauguration or afterwards who knows there's always going to be another time where markets are fearful uh so if you're waiting to invest more I always say you have two choices choice number one is dollar cost average Choice number two is wait for fear and right now we're not at fear we're at greed uh and uh Market momentum is considered at extreme greed uh although the number of new 52- we highs and lows is technically at fear as well as the amount of stocks going up which is also a little bit of a Red Flag Warning actually that potentially only a few stocks are actually driving indic Seas up and when this breath declines it's possible you could end up walking into some kind of like an August crash or correction uh who knows Market volatility is neutral junk bond and Safe Haven demand in the greedy category so a little mixed right now that's how we get to about 61 on Greed which is surprising with all these alltime new highs that we're not at extreme greed but we're not has the balance of breath few stocks rather than all stocks uh okay so that's that now if you want my trade alerts uh when I trade during the day make sure to join the stocks and psychology of money group linked down below and uh get the free Alpha newsletter every morning to start your day at 6:15 a.m. by going to meet kevin.com Alpha also link down below bu
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