저자: MikeSwartz · 외국인
요약 보기
관세 충격과 Jamie Dimon의 경기침체 경고로 증시 급락, 공포지수 극단적 공포 구간(F&G 8), VIX 40.71로 상승. 금은 신고가 근접, 금리·달러 상승 압력. 단기 반등 가능성은 있으나 VIX 고점에서는 랠리가 매도되는 경향, 패턴 확인 전 함정 주의를 강조하는 기술적 분석 영상.
다듬은 글
Today stocks came crashing back down and Jamie Diamond gives us a stock market warning and tomorrow Jamie Diamond has more information to share with us. Now if we come over look at how the indices fared across the board. The Dow was down 1,04 points. The NASDAQ was down 737 points. S&P 500 down 188 points with the Russell 2000 being down 8.11.
We look at advancing issues versus declining. We had 83% of issues declining on the day. And when we look at the heat map, essentially just a sea of red out there. There was almost nowhere to hide. T-Mobile was actually up48 of a percent. But look, AVGO down almost 7%. Tesla down 7.27%. Amazon down 5.24%.
Apple down 4.24%. So a lot of damage out here in the stock market. Now we come over and look at how the sectors fared across the board. Every single sector was in the red except for consumer defensives just by a smidge wasn't able to hold out and barely get in the green for today. Now we look at the fear and green index.
Right now we are sitting at eight. We are well into extreme fear territory. Earlier on today I think it was like 16 or so. And you can see that was the closing price from yesterday. Then we also received the most recent investor sentiment survey. And this week the survey came in a little bit more bullish, 28.5% on the bull side, but look at the bears.
They're still out there in force, 58.9. This is one of the lowest readings I've seen for the neutral category, only 12.5%. So when we look at what Jamie Diamond has to say, he says recession is likely outcome from Trump's tariff turmoil. And we all know stocks do not normally perform well when we are in a recessionary period of time.
However, tomorrow we do have some earnings coming out and tomorrow we're going to learn just how well Jamie Diamond's coming company actually did. JP Morgan has earnings coming out. Wells Fargo, Black Rockck, Morgan Stanley. And if we take a look at JP Morgan stock chart, notice it looks kind of similar to the S&P 500.
A big nasty inside candle day today. We gapped down. We did not feel the gap from today. However, look at the MACD indicator. It's looking like it may want to start to firm up a bit. And even as we came down making this low, notice the MACD indicator was not making new lows at that period of time. Now, we look over here at the dollar index today.
Dollar index getting destroyed out there. Dollar index down 1.90. Then we come over, look at the yields. Yields once again on the move back up. We see the the 10-year yield now trading at 4.4%. And again, we know that that Trump wants to see yields lower. So when it's time to refinance the government's debt, they can do so at lower rates.
So yesterday, everybody thought everything was fine. As Trump retreats, but still puts US tariff rate at the highest level in this century. Here's what it means for prices of clothes, food, and more. And what they're going to go on to say is, "Watch out. Inflation is going to go back up higher, even though we've seen the CPI report actually come out way better than expected." Now, if we scroll on down here real quick, even though Trump has basically laid off some of the higher reciprocal tariffs, they're still leaving in place the 10% tariffs.
And we look right here, we also learned today that China's total rate is at 145%, not 125%. So, if you think everything is calm, you better think twice. We are not done with this tip for tat tariff yet. It's only been put on hold. They've essentially went ahead and kicked the can down the road. Now, a little bit of good news today.
We can see we had a stellar 30-year bond auction. Then we come over and look at what do we have on deck for tomorrow in terms of economic news. We can see tomorrow 8:30 and we have the core PPI coming out. And then at 10 a.m., this is going to be important, guys. We have preliminary consumer sentiment, preliminary inflation expectations.
Quite often we get these two news items at 10 a.m. on Fridays. If we have a trend established going into lunch, watch out if that trend's established still after lunch. it could get extremely ugly, meaning the market could continue to push in whichever direction that trend is. If it's up, watch out.
We're going to keep plowing going into a close. If it's down, we're likely going to keep going substantially lower. Now, I was already suspect of the move up last night, especially when you looked at where the VIX closed yesterday. The VIX closed at 33.55. And again, the VIX is still very elevated. Today, the VIX closed even higher than where it did yesterday with a reading of 40.71.
Whenever the VIX is elevated, watch out. A majority of rallies tend to be sold. Then as we come look at the precious metal gold, notice gold has already come down hitting our two targets. The one was this structure breakout point here. The second one was this gap being filled. And now gold is is right up there getting ready to make a new all-time high.
So gold's basically saying, "Watch out. Inflation's getting ready to come. And is that going to go ahead and stop the Fed from being able to from being able to cut rates in the near future?" Now, I want to make you guys aware of two of the best proper deals out there right now. My funed futures 25% off all starter plans, no activation fee and take profit trader 30% off all evaluation accounts also no activation fee.
If you want to take advantage of these offers, use the links in the description box down below. Next, we jump over and take a look at the spy real quick. Spy, you see that inside candle? We kind of a a hammerish looking candle, but you see the low was higher than the prior candle's low. the high was lower than the prior candle's high.
So again, what is this? What is this pattern set up that tomorrow is highly probable going to be a breakout or breakdown from this pattern. But one thing we want to I want to caution you guys on the first way we break quite often ends up being nothing more than a trap. So if we start breaking to the downside tomorrow, watch out.
That could be nothing more than a trap for a move up higher. MACD indicator is still crossed to the downside on the daily chart. On the 4hour chart, you can see that the MACD indicator basically just barely crossed to the upside. We filled one of the gaps. We still have a large gaping gap above us. Then on the 30-inut chart, one of the areas we talked about this morning on the live stream was this whole minus development area.
This is the area where I thought the market would come back in towards. I said, "Watch out. The first time we come into that area, expect the market to either consolidate or bounce out of that area." And that's exactly what transpired today. And if you guys don't want to miss the next time I go live, make sure you subscribe and make sure you have the bell notifications turned on for all.
Today we gave away a 50K takeprofit trader account and we have more takeprofit trader accounts to give away. So you want to miss make sure you don't miss the next time we go live. Now if we look at the profile shape today, I'd classify this as a DA and dog. And something that has me a little bit concerned with this is the fact that if we start getting back into this zone, are we going to flush through the low?
Maybe come all the way down towards this high volume area at about 499.43. because we got to ask ourel this question. Who is going to want to buy on Friday going into a weekend with the with the type of price action we've been seeing in the stock market. Next, we jump over and look at the futures markets real quick and notice we had that big big move up yesterday.
Then if we go ahead and we pull our Fibonacci retracement from that low up towards the high. Notice we came down basically wicking through the 50% level and then we came right back up. And if the if indeed the market is going to get constructive here, this would be a logical area where we would look for a bounce in the market.
Now also notice what we did with that rally yesterday. We were able to come all the way back up towards value area low at 5438.50. We were able to take out that price point and then we came back down. Now can we make it all the way up towards that point of control at 5674? Then we come over and start looking at the daily profiles and we can see that minus development area that we mapped out today on the live stream.
We came into it, boom, we rejected right back out. And what I'm really looking at within this profile is going to be look at the the point of control from yesterday 532.00. Are we going to try to flush a little bit lower, come down and take out that level, and then potentially go ahead and go back up?
I'm still going to classify today's shape as a Diaz and dog shaped profile. And with that, keep in mind, we expect a breakout or breakdown from this pattern. So, could we maybe see a little bit more weakness tonight, come down here, flush out the lows, maybe even down towards that point of control, and then turn and start rallying right back up?
I would love nothing more than to see that actually shape up. However, we also have to be mindful that maybe, just maybe, we're going to continue to go up higher. We do have a minus development area up in this zone, which is anywhere from about 5425 up here to about 5443 and a quarter. Now with that being said, we can also we can also map out this A to B equals C to D pattern.
Now I do want to warn you guys about this. The ABC pattern does complete right near that that minus development area. But this pattern is truly not validated unless we can break above the swing high right over here. And that swing point is going to come in at about 5353. So once we break that, that pattern is validated.
And that would be a logical target. If we go ahead and we frontr run that, meaning we get into this early, try to be preemptive on that break. Just note if we start breaking this low right down here, we would have to recalibrate, we'd have to redraw out where that ABC pattern would come into play. And if we actually pull back more than past the 78% retracement, which I'd say below 5194, we start breaking below that, I'm no longer going to be looking I'm no I'm no longer going to be looking for an ABC pattern up.
Instead, I'm going to be looking for this low to get flush and then it move down towards that point of control at 5,032. Now, we come over start look at the NASDAQ. Notice we do have a inside day on this candle and we came right up towards that anchored VWAP from this from the prior low over here. Now, as I'm looking at this, the MACD indicator does look like it's trying to firm up and again, we have an inside day.
So, what does that mean? Tomorrow, expect a breakout or breakdown from this pattern, but we also have to be vigilant about a potential trap. On the 4-hour chart, we do have a bullish cross of the MACD indicator. Then, as we look at the 30-inut chart, notice today we came right within this minus development area and we have that DS and dog shape profile.
Today, we did gap lower, which means we do have a gap above us, which would be a very logical target. If we can start breaking above valuary high or if we break below valuary area low and we start coming back up, we can then target the point of control value high gap resistance and then all the way up here for that gap to be filled.
Now, when we come over here and we look at the 4hour chart for the NASDAQ futures, notice, all right, we came all the way, we've come all the way today down towards that 50% level, similar to what we talked about with the S&P 500. Now, if we are going to turn from here and we're going to continue to rally up, we have the potential for this larger ABC pattern which completes all the way up here at 20,548.21.
Now, what I would say is if we get some positive developments between China and and and the US where we're going to come to some sort of an agreement, then maybe, just maybe, we'll get some type of bullish catalyst to push us up there. Or maybe that news tomorrow is just going to be so good the market has to go up higher.
You can see yesterday we just barely missed hitting that point of control from last week at 19,41.75. So that point of control is still a logical target along with a point of control from a few weeks back at 20,080. Then as we come over and start looking at the daily profiles, this magenta line right here was basically signifying where the lock limit should be in place, which is something we were talking about today on the live stream.
But as we start looking at this, we had a nice little bounce up this this afternoon and look right where we came towards. We almost made it right back up towards this structure breakdown point. We didn't quite make it there. We almost made it towards that. Now the question is, do we have another ABC pattern down or are we trying to form an ABC pattern on the way up?
Because if you look at this, we could start from right here and say A to B equals C to D and that would project somewhere up there. Or maybe, just maybe, this is going to be a larger A to B equals C to D pattern on the way down, which would be something like this. The A to B leg on the way down, the B toc leg, the corrective leg.
and then we project and maybe that gives us a price target down here around 17,420. So let's go ahead and map this out real quick. We measure A to B, B to C and notice where that pattern completes a little bit above that point of control down here at 17,420. So the completion on that pattern would be 17,555 and we'll see, you know, if we if we can make it down there.
Keep in mind in order to know which ABC pattern is going to be validated, watch the swing points. Watch the swing low. If we break that, then it's going to be ABC pattern down. If we start breaking this swing high right up in here, then we're going to be looking for that ABC pattern on the way up. And if we go ahead and we draw that out, grabbing our Fibonacci extension tool, that gives us a price completion at about $18,9.99.
Now, today we are closing right within value between value high and value low. So, we got to be on the lookout tomorrow, especially with the profile being kind of a DS and dog shape profile. We start breaking down first tonight and then we turn back up. When we start getting above value area low, I want to target the point of control.
I want to target this next high volume area of the profile at about 18,468. Then I want to target value area high. And then we can start looking for the retest of the highs near yesterday, which would bring us right near that point of control from last week at 19,41. Now, if you guys would like to learn how to withdraw inside the buffer zone with take-profit trader, then make sure to watch this next video right
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