저자: MikeSwartz · 외국인
요약 보기
마이클 배리의 감가상각 관련 경고를 인용하며 메가캡 기술주 고평가와 정부 셧다운 이후 노동·물가 데이터 신뢰성 문제를 지적한다. 공포탐욕지수 31로 공포 구간이며, 다우는 신고가 근접하나 기술주(특히 엔비디아) 약세로 나스닥은 하락 마감했다. 저자는 시장 구조가 약하다고 보고 있으나 S&P500은 7링크 돌파 시 신고가 가능성을 언급한다. 주요 지지·저항은 SPY 684, QQQ 622/626, 나스닥 선물 25,554~25,677 구간의 가격 레벨 중심으로 제시된다.
다듬은 글
Today, Michael Burry gives us another stock market warning and it did not have anything to do with the Dow Jones as the Dow Jones is on the verge of making a new all-time high. Now, today when we come over and look at the Fear & Greed Index, right now we're still sitting at 31. We are still in fear territory even as the Dow Jones is about to make new all-time highs.
We come over and look at the Magnificent Seven stocks real quick and we can quickly see Nvidia down almost 3% and with Nvidia being such a high weighting of the indices, it's going to be hard for the market to rally, but some of the Magnificent Sevens did start to catch a bid later on. We were able to get Microsoft, Google, Amazon all in the green.
We did have Tesla down. We did have Meta down. We did have Nvidia down, but it was it was not nearly as bad as what it could have been. We come over and look at how the indices fared across the board, the Dow was up 559 points. The Nasdaq was down 58 points. S&P 500 was up 14 points with the Russell 2000 being up 0.22.
We come over and look at advancing issues versus declining. We had 57.1% of issues advancing on the day. Then when we come over and look at the sectors across the board, all sectors were up except for two, industrials and technology. And with Nvidia being down the way it was, it's really no surprise technology was actually in the red today.
Now, something we spotted early on during the live stream, we came over and looked at RSP right off the rip. We saw RSP this morning gapping up, came down, filled the gap and then rallied up, but then we come over and look at the spy real quick. We can see the spy had a massive gap lower and it took a lot longer in time before the spy came all the way back up and started to fill the gap.
Then we come over and look at the dollar index, the dollar index is still not really breaking down below this structure breakdown point. We wicked below it, but then we closed right back in that level. This is something we most certainly want to pay attention to. However, I almost think the Dow could be giving us a heads-up that we are about to see all-time highs in the market.
Look today, the Dow Jones making it all the way up towards the wicks. It's right there just about to break. Then we look down here at the MACD indicator, is the MACD indicator pushing up higher as we're coming up towards this level or is it making a lower high? I think we can all be on the same page and clearly see Dow Jones is not making new all-time highs.
We recently seen Michael Burry put out this post and he basically talks about, you know, Meta, Google, Oracle, Microsoft, and Amazon are all wildly overvalued and he basically goes on to say the root cause of his criticism is under understanding depreciation is a fraud of modern error, says Michael Burry, but old chips are still in demand and this is going to be a problem, right?
When this all comes crashing down, well, guess what? It's going to really going to be no surprise, it always ends the same. Then we still have more information about the government shutdown. The bill to end the government shutdown heads to the house, but air travel issues could still persist. And with the government being shut down, we've really been lacking labor data, but this morning fresh signs emerged that the US labor market is weakening as the government shutdown draws to the end.
That's going to be kind of funny out there. The government shuts down, stock markets rally, the the government reopens, and maybe we could be in for a little bit of trouble. We come over and look at this chart real quick and we can see look at the jobs data provided by the ADP. You're starting to see negative prints and to me, this is a clear sign that we are not in a healthy economy.
And keep in mind, I've been screaming about this for quite some time and it's going to make a little bit more sense here in a few moments, but last month we were supposed to get the NFP data on the 3rd. We did not. We were supposed to get the CPI data on the 15th. We were able to get that on the 24th.
That's kind of suspicious, especially when we know that the CPI data was better than expected, so no wonder they were able to give us that data. But what about the labor market? We also did not get it in November, so when can we expect to get the jobs data? Well, here's when to expect shutdown delayed jobs and inflation reports once the government reopens.
And as I went down here and I looked at this, this is going to be a little bit troubling for me. November jobs report delayed by the government shutdown is expected to be released as early as Friday. However, they don't say all reports. And then the second and the second key point, critical October inflation reports including CPI, PPI, and PCE may never be published due to data collection issues during the shutdown.
Now, isn't that kind of ironic as we're starting to see a deterioration of the labor market that uh-oh, we may never know just how bad or how good those numbers are. Let me know in the comment section below, do you guys think the labor data that they're hiding from us is better than what a lot of people think or do you guys think it's a dumpster fire?
And they also go on to say the Octo- the October jobs report faces challenges in data collection and may be distorted by federal employee furloughs, potential delay in its release until December. And let's not forget with the CPI report, they already warned us in the CPI report sampling error in the CPI.
The CPI is a statistical estimate that is subject to sampling error. And that brings me right back and has me really thinking, that CPI report that they released to us on the 24th, which was late, came in better than expected. Is that because they had problems collecting the data or oopsie-doopsie, it just ended up being a sampling error?
Now, let's not forget tomorrow when we look at the economic calendar, we have no major economic news, but it's going to be it's going to be interesting to see on Thursday, do we get the CPI data out and on Friday, are we going to get the PPI data to be released? Now, when we come over and look at the precious metals, gold today, gold was up just a little bit, about 15 points or so, but we look at this on the 4-hour chart and we can see if we pull a fib right over here from this high down towards the low today, gold basically had a little bit of a hesitation at the 50% retracement, started to pull back, did not quite make it to the 38% retracement and now it's trying to work its way on the way back up.
Even after hours, I see the S&P 500 going up. The Nasdaq is also trying to get green this moment after hours. And if we come over real quick and take a look at Nvidia today, Nvidia was absolutely getting destroyed. Nvidia big gap down this morning and started to roll over. However, could this have been predicted with Nvidia in advance?
Well, we come over and look at the GEX data real quick and notice right around that 200 strike price, look at all that gamma exposure that we have. And as we look at this, think about this as potential resistance in the market. We have big GEX levels down below us, this could act as support in the market.
This is also where dealers are going to have to hedge. Now, in this event, if we can get above 200, then I think we have a a clear then I think we have a good path to 205 and then maybe even all the way up to 209, but we can clearly see when the market opened up today, yesterday we peaked out right around 200 and bam, we dropped right back down.
Now, if we come over and look at the spy real quick and look at this on the daily chart, what's this chart looking like? We've had quite the push up off the low after we've been able to test out the 50-period EMA. Now, the question is as we're approaching that 78.6 Fibonacci level, are we going to be able to break because if we do not, if we end up turning back down from here, this could end up setting up a lower high, but if we start breaking the 786, I'm going to be all on board, we are probably going to see the spy making a run to new all-time highs.
Now, if you guys trade with prop firms out there, My Funded Futures just dropped a new add-on for the 50K scale account. You can get daily payouts with the rapid plan. Take advantage of this offer, use the link in the description box down below, use code Mike at checkout. We come over and look at the GEX data real quick, notice right around this 684 strike price, it's having a hard time out here for the spy, but if the spy starts to roll off, one of the areas I'm going to be watching to the downside is going to be 660 or so.
And we can see right now today, we closed at about 683.46. So that 684, at least at this point, is still holding the market down just a bit. On the 4-hour chart, we look at the MACD indicator, we do got a bullish cross on the way up, but this is going to be one heck of a divergence if we do push right up there towards all-time highs.
Now, on the 30-minute volume profiles, what do we have going on? Well, we still have that gap behind from Monday and today, I'll classify this as a P as in Paul. You can see we gapped down, we ran back up and then basically this afternoon, we just had this upper level consolidation. MACD indicator is basically flatlined out and this is a little bit problematic for me.
I think quite often, we are going to start to get a retracement back down. Now, if we simply consolidate up here, we could also see the MACD resolve this issue by working its way down towards the zero line and if we're still up at these upper levels, when the MACD indicator gets down towards the zero line, watch out, that could be setting up another leg higher up in this market.
Now, when we come over and look at the futures markets real quick, we can see the spy we can see the S&P today pushing above the swing high right over here. We really have not had much of a pullback going all the way back from the lows on Friday. When we pull a Fibonacci retracement from the all-time high down towards this low, notice we are fast approaching that 786 level, which we talked about this morning on the live stream.
That comes in at 6888.72 and since we deal in quarter point increments, I'm going to round down and say 6888.50. Now, in the event that this holds or we just spike above it and we come back down, then I want to start looking for the market to come back down and at that point, I'd want to pull a Fibonacci retracement from the low up to wherever the highest point is.
Now, right now we don't have a turn in the market, so I don't want to go ahead and and think about where that may come in at this moment. Now, when we come over and look at the daily profiles on the 30-minute chart, notice we have another untested point of control above us. Now, you can see last night we spiked above value area high, we rotated down and look at the highlighted zone that we had mapped out.
This is an area that we mapped out yesterday in yesterday's video and we're even talking about it in yesterday's live stream, but basically a structure breakout point candle body right up here to the candle wick, we sliced right through it. We had failed to come back and test it. Well, today we found support there along with the P point, so finally we were able to get the test of the P point.
Now, the question is, do we just simply continue to push on up? Now, if we start to get a pullback tonight or tomorrow, one of the areas I want to watch is going to be this whole entire minus development area anywhere from a price point of about 6863 and a half down here to about 6858.25. Now, when we look at the volume profile levels real quick, value area high is going to be 6879 and a quarter.
If we are breaking above that, that's when I want to focus on 6885.00, which is an untested point of control. But, in the event we break above value area high, we come back down, I want to look to target the point of control. Then, I want to look to target kind of this minus development area, then value area low down here at 6842.75.
Now, if we come over and look at the QQQ's real quick, we can see the Q's today basically having an inside day. MACD indicator just slightly has a bearish cross at this moment, and this is going to really lend to the possibility we are likely going to get a breakout or breakdown from this pattern. If we break down from today's low, well, guess what?
We're probably going to go back and fill the low that we left behind from Monday. Then, as we come over and look at the 4-hour chart, we can see the push up. We have this consolidation. MACD indicator basically just barely dipped below the zero line, and now it's trying to work its way on the way back up.
On the 30-minute chart, we can see the MACD indicator a little bit above the zero line, nothing crazy, kind of flatlined out there, and that would be expected as we've had this upper level consolidation at least at this point in time. Now, tomorrow, I will be highly focused on if we break value area low at 619.92, look for a retest near the lows of today about 617.58, and then beyond that, I'd be looking for the market to come all the way down, fill in the gap at about 609.48.
Now, if we come over and look at some of the GEX levels out here for the Nasdaq, wow, we got quite a bit out here on the Q's. We have some right down below us right around 622, and then right above us right around 626, 625, somewhere in that ballpark, and we can see right now, 622 is exactly where price is.
Now, I am kind of curious down here towards this gap being filled about 609. Are there any exposure down there? Well, below that, look, if we come down to 609, we really have a lot of gamma exposure much lower than that, somewhere around 600. So, if we do see the Q's come down and fill the gap, well, guess what?
I believe we're probably going to make our way all the way down towards 600. If we zoom that out, that would put us back down near the lows on Friday. Now, one thing to know about these GEX levels, if we start breaking basically above the upper level about 624, I'd look to the next area about 630 for the next price point above that, then about 634, 639 or so.
That would be the the ballparks I'd be focusing on if indeed we can start getting above that 626 strike price. Now, if we come over and look at the Nasdaq futures real quick, what do we got going on over here? Well, we've already been able to take out the point of control, and now we just have this consolidation up in this area.
Now, I am still focused on this gap from Thursday potentially coming back and get filled, but I do want to warn you guys, all right? Even with this gap being down here, if it does not fill by the close on Thursday, meaning 5:00 p.m. Eastern time on Thursday, if that gap is not filled by then, watch out, it's probably going to be a couple weeks before we come back and fill that gap.
Now, as we come over and look at the daily profiles on the 30-minute chart, we kind of have a D-shaped profile today, and again, that would that also lends to the possibility we're likely going to get a breakout or breakdown from this pattern. Now, with this being said, we have value area high about 25,677 and a quarter.
If we break above that, then I want to target the highest from the overnight session. Anything below that, I really want to focus on the point of control, 25,662.75, and then any of these high volume nodes, such as 25,621, and then value area low at 25,554. Anything below that price point, look for a retest of the lows, and then beyond that, then I really might then my attention's really start to focus on that gap coming all the way down and being filled from Sunday night.
Now, if you guys like to learn about Top Of The Traders Hedging Rule, make sure to watch this next video right here.
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