저자: WarrenBuffett/CharlieMunger언급 · 외국인
요약 보기
버핏은 시장 단기 방향은 모른다고 밝힘. 향후 10~20년은 현금이나 장기채보다 미국 주식 등 지분 보유가 낫다고 봄, 다만 기대수익은 완만한 실질 수익이며 투자자는 실질적으로 덜 좋은 성과에 익숙해져야 한다고 언급. 석유 등 에너지는 향후 100년간 대체 가능하며 인류의 혁신 능력을 낙관. 중국 경제 잠재력은 매우 크다고 평가.
다듬은 글
I write articles very infrequently or get interviewed very infrequently on on the subject of the general level of the market itself. Probably only four or five times in 40 years have I really declared myself about what I thought about the general level of the stock market. And it turned out I was pretty premature actually in October of 2008 as was pointed out to me by a number of people.
Uh but I felt and what I said in that article really was that it would be way better to own stocks over the long term than to follow a policy of buying either long-term bonds or or holding cash. And I knew I could make that statement. Uh and I would be eventually uh I thought odds were very high I'd be proven right on that.
Uh but I don't like I don't know what the stock market's going to do next week or next month or next year. I don't have any idea. People always think I do. I I know I don't have any idea. I don't think about it. It doesn't make any difference. Charlie and I I don't I can't recall a discussion we've ever had on it, you know, basically.
But I do think over the next 10 years or 20 years, I'd much rather own equities, including US equities. I'd much rather own them than cash or I'd much rather own them than a 10 or 20 year bond. But that's partly because I'm very unenthusiastic about uh the alternatives. I think e I think equities will are likely to give you some positive modest positive real return uh over time.
Uh but beyond that I really don't know anything Charlie. Well that's a cheerful thought that equities are the best of a bad lot of available opportunities. Do you disagree with it? No I think you're right. I think people should get accustomed on average to doing less well in their investment portfolios in real terms.
Charlie and I I think we're in for a long period of where the ordinary result is not going to be very exciting, but we we like owning businesses and we're in a position where we can own entire businesses. Uh but we also like partial ownership of businesses and and we we want to own businesses where we really think they have some competitive advantage over time and and and where we feel good about the management where we think the price is reasonably attractive.
I think you can find things like that now, but they aren't they aren't dramatically attractive at all. They do beat in my view they do beat holding cash or or 5 10 or 20 year 20-year bonds. You frequently speak favorably about the prosperity of future generations that our children and our children's childrens will live better than us.
How much of our current prosperity do you attribute to us being able to get oil out of the ground at a fraction of the cost of its value to us in the economy? And how will we be able to live better in the future when we can no longer get more and more of this free lunch and we become dependent on more dilute sources like solar and wind.
Couldn't this turn out like trying to satisfy a drug addict with a Coca-Cola. the uh oil business obviously the discovery of oil when was about 1850 something Colonel some Colonel Drake at Titusville Pennsylvania or something the that changed the world in a very major way and it's only 150 years ago and since then we've been sticking straws into the earth uh at an incredible pace there's over 500,000 producing wells in the United States would you believe that I 11 barrel or 10 barrels a day average or something of the sort.
I mean we have really exploited what may have taken I don't know what is hundreds of thousands of years or millions of years to create. uh it's contributed in a huge way to the prosperity of the world. But the world in my view will not be dependent upon that particular uh call it windfall for the next 100 years.
And Charlie knows way more about this subject than I do. But but there will be other free lunches available. you know, whether it's solar or uh there's lots of possibilities. Don't don't ever don't ever give up on on humans ability to innovate in ways that that create solutions to problems that seem insolvable.
We've we've faced all kinds of predictions. Uh you know, all of the inventions having been invented. There's some famous statement I forget who made on that. I mean there it the there the we haven't really started. I mean if if you could pick a time in history when you would want to be born leaving out the nuclear, chemical and biological threat which is something to leave out but you know I would pick today.
You know it it the world has a bright future. Now Charlie will give you the other side of that. Well, no. I I think you're failing to recognize something really important in the technology of 150 years ago. They really needed the oil to get ahead. in our advanced civilization which has benefited from this last 150 years of technological 150 years of technological uh expertise.
We don't we can get ahead without the oil if we have to. Now Freeman Dyson is not a physicist who is not an economist but a genius and he's been very good at pointing out that it isn't that horrible to contemplate a world which goes off oil provided that world is as rich and knowledgeable as ours is now.
So the fact that they couldn't have got to where we are now without the oil starting 150 years ago does not mean we can't do without the oil if we have to. We need the oil and the gas and the coal eventually for chemical feed stocks more than we need it for keeping warm and propelling our vehicles. And the adjustment fortunately is will be fairly gradual.
I mean that it is not like 85 million barrels of a day goes to 50 million or something in five or 10 years. So so the it's it's a workable period of adjustment in my view. It's it's if it doesn't bother Freeman Dyson who knows more about it, I don't think it should bother you too much. He's always pulling that on me.
What is the most important thing that you have learned from Charlie? Thank you. Most important thing I've learned from China. China. Yeah. Yeah. Well, what's the most important thing you've learned from China, Charlie? It has some very unusual people in BYD. I've learned no other lesson is as important as that one.
I've learned they like Sprite better than Coke. Sprite out sells Coke in China by 2 to1, but they're both growing dramatically. I think China is an amazing economy. I mean it there is no just under 4 million. There were 290 million in China in 1790. You know just as smart you know just as hardworking resources of the land the minerals everything climate very very similar.
And for 170 years or so, relatively little progress was made uh in the standard of living for those people like you say who had all the native abilities that that America had. But you know in recent decades the potential of the Chinese is being is being unleashed and it's huge. And you know, I I think it's very very interesting to watch.
Charlie and I and a group of the some of the directors are going over there at the end of September, you know, and I was over there a couple years ago. It's a sight to behold. Uh but terms of specific lessons, they haven't taught me how to eat Chinese food. I will say that. I think I always knew that the Chinese people had an enormous potential for huge and rapid progress because I could see that in all the Chinese Americans that I dealt with and indeed people came in here as Chinese coolies in effect slaves and they rose so rapidly that it was a marvel.
So I always knew that China had a potential to be a huge credit to human civilization but I think I underrated how fast it could happen. Uh China is setting a new record uh for advancement of civilization at a very rapid rate. It's it's fun to watch.
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