저자: MikeSwartz · 외국인
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테슬라 급등과 공포탐욕지수 64(탐욕) 속에서 시장의 단기 방향을 기술적 분석(볼륨프로파일, 캔들, 갭 전략)으로 설명. 지정학 긴장(중동, 이스라엘)과 Jamie Dimon의 경고를 언급하며 단기 리스크 요인으로 제시. 나스닥·S&P500은 레벨 기준으로 조정 시나리오와 상승 목표를 함께 제시하나 방향에 대한 명확한 1~3개월 전망은 제한적.
다듬은 글
the stock market could be in trouble if Jamie Diamond is correct and speaking of trouble any of the Tesla bearers out there today absolutely getting decimated with Tesla being up over 21% on the session we look at the fear and green index we are sitting at 64 we're actually able to move up one tick closer to extreme greed however when we look at the latest investor sentiment survey notice the Bears got a little bit more aggressive 29.9% and the Bulls dropped substantially down to 37 .7 versus the previous week at 45.5 so what does all this mean moving forward well we come over look at how the sees faed across the board the Dow was down 140 points NASDAQ was up 138 points S&P 500 up 12.44 Russell 2000 down .51 now when we look at advancing issues versus declining we had 55.4% of issues advancing on the day when we look at the sectors across the board consumer cyclicals by far leading the way today but as you probably guess Tesla Tesla Tesla that's what it was all about today when we look at the heat map real quick for the NASDAQ look at Tesla right up 21.92 and by far it is the biggest mover out of the NASDAQ and not only the NASDAQ but also we look at the S&P 500 the biggest mover for the S&P 500 as well and if it wasn't for Tesla the market probably would have looked quite differently we look at the dollar index today forming a bearish engulfing is looking candle now the question is is this going to be a little head fake and we start going back up similar to what we saw back over here or are we really going to start to get the pullback back down Mac the indicator is a little bit elevated at this level and then we come over look at gold gold today basically form minut it inside day but nonetheless gold was up 19 points on the session then we come over look at Crudo basically a candle of indecision we have a wick on the top wick on the bottom and then basically a candle body right in the middle of the range little bit slightly lower than the middle however this is nothing more than a candle of indecision now keep in mind if and when Israel decides to escalate things in the Middle East the first sign we want to pay attention to is crude o if we see crude o rocketing up then we also want to look at gold and even the volatility index and speaking of the vix today the vix was down 19 cents on the session you can see earlier on the vix was up and then just dwindled lower as the day progressed on now we come on we look at the diamonds real quick notice the last two candles were down days however we have Wicks on the both of the bottom of those candles and we're coming right into that high volume area that we've been speaking about over the past couple videos or so and let's not forget we're still in the midst of earning season and speaking of earnings this morning before the Bell we take a look at UPS UPS was a rocket ship on the way up but unlike Tesla we saw UPS starting to go a little bit lower we can see it right here the big gap up came down about 50% of the Gap then essentially just went sideways the remainder of the day now as we come over look at the ball caps real quick we had the Russell 2000 you can see yesterday we had a wick on the bottom a hammer is candle today we also have a wick on the bottom of that candle and the low is higher than the prior day but the high was able to make a slightly higher high now yesterday we came right down to the 78.6 so maybe we're going to have this ABC pattern on the way up which would take us a little bit above the swing High over here I think right around 230 or so would be the price projection for that however when we look out here on the 1 hour chart notice the ma the indicator is starting to firm up here just a bit we do have a bullish cross on the 30-minute chart we talking about this this morning we also have the Mac indicators crossed up and moving up at a 45 degree angle on the way up now the question is will they be able to maintain that trajectory for tomorrow we look tomorrow at the economic calendar what do we have on Deck well starting off at 8:30 we have Corridor B good orders coming out then at 10:00 a.m.
we have revised consumer sentiment followed by revised inflation expectations now we can see the cues are right back in this consolidation box up here however let's take a look at some of the big flyers in the cues for instance we take a look at Nvidia was up 85 cents on the session still hanging around near all-time high territory then we come over and we look at Apple Apple today has backtack Hammer candles on it and Apple today was only down 19 cents and I say only because early on apple gap lower it was able to find its footing and actually closed near the upper portion of the range then we come over we take a look at let's say Meta Meta today was up $49 we take a look at Microsoft Microsoft today was up 13 C so not a lot going on there but Microsoft had this little push up now the question is can we firm up around this area if today's low does not hold watch out Microsoft's probably coming down towards the lower end of this range maybe even all the way back towards 41.69 so as we jump back over and look at the cues knowing that we're in the middle of the range out here on the daily chart what is going on well in the middle in the middle what do they say don't diddle in the middle then we come over we look at the 4our chart what do we got going on there well 4our chart you see this morning we had the Gap up and we actually talked about this today during the live stream which Gap was going to get filled first well you know what neither Gap got filled so now we have a conundrum where we had a gap down we have a gap up now what is going to be in store for tomorrow because tomorrow morning if we do Gap up tomorrow morning by default I will be looking to fade the Gap why is that because when we have two backto back gaps then I expect the second Gap to get filled and that goes without question on any day now does that guarantee that's the way the Market's going to shape up no absolutely not however if we do Gap up I would love to see the market come all the way up here filling the Gap up here at about 4960 three however tomorrow morning if we do start gapping lower that's not necessarily in a situation where I want to fade the Gap instead I want to look and say all right are we above or below value are low which comes in at 4919 if we're below it then I want to play down towards Gap support 4 8948 and then maybe all the way down here for this Gap to potentially come back and be filled now I want to make everybody aware Apex 78 massive 80% sale off all their valuation accounts pass in as little as one day and $85 activation fee across all account sizes if you're a Trader that likes to trade the 150 250 and 300K accounts after using promo code Mike you can get those accounts for only $50 there could be trouble Brewing ahead if you believe what Jamie demon is saying he's basically saying wwe3 has already begun now hopefully Jamie demon is incorrect about this all the tensions simmer down but if this is going to be the case could the stock market be on the verge of suffering a major shock we come out here and we look at the weekly volume profiles and notice right now we're right back near that point of control and as we're looking at this what are we expecting from here well on this profile I don't have a huge Edge we can see that last looking at last week's valary low we've been below it now now we're back above it so we would expect the market to rotate higher Fridays tend to be more bullish than bearish which would also lend towards the bullish case then we come over here and we have a very well-defined Diaz and dog shaped profile however I want to put a caveat on this as well I want to pay attention to this level right down here this zone that zone will come in anywhere from 20, 293 up here to about 20,34 now that's a little bit different than the volume profile levels but let's talk this through real quick you can see that value area high is about 20, 380.000 right now where we at we are currently above that what else do we have above us we have an untested point of control at 20432 so if we stay above today's valary high I do want to Target this area up here that untested point of control but I also if we come back down below value area high want to Target the point of control 20, 354.50 in value area low at 20,000 34.25 now if we do get below that again I do want to use this minus Development Area as a potential Target but only if we are trading below value area high from the prior day now as we come over look at the Spy real quick what is going on on this front last two days counting today we have tails on the bottom so will we be able to get a late will we be able to get a late week push all the way back up towards alltime highs keep in mind we still have an ABC pattern up here about 59209 on the 1H hour chart you can see the Mac the indicator just starting to get a fresh cross on the way back up then as we dive down look at the 30-minute chart notice today we gapped up but the Spy was able to come down fill in the Gap and then we basically closed near the upper end of the range but for all intensive purposes today's can today's range was an inside day the high was lower than the prior day the low was higher than the prior day which means tomorrow is likely going to be a breakout or breakdown from this pattern Mac the indicator is crossed to the upside at about a 45 degree angle but but but but but we must pay very close attention if we're still trading around this area tomorrow ma the indicator gets near the zero line watch out lower and again the key is going to be are we trading below value area low or not as what do we got going on well we still have this double top pattern that will complete anywhere from 5772 to about 5780 and as we look at this we are back above the prior weeks low at this moment however the question is will we be able to stay above it and we have a pattern that is starting to potentially form and that could be an ABC pattern on the way up the ADB leg is the impulse move the b2c leg is the corrective leg that gives us a price completion at about 58905 however if we cannot get above the high right here then that pattern would be negated and if we come below the low of this wick on the 4our candle that would also negate the trading pattern now as we come over look at the daily profiles for the S&P 500 notice we have this minus Development Area which we've been talking about during the live streams speaking of live streams if you want to make sure you don't miss the live stream next live stream one this could be acted as a Target location and can also be acted as a rejection point the first time we come into it expect a slap back down or consolidation we come back into a second or third time I expect that level to break now when we look at the volume profile levels notice we're trading right near value area high at 585 3.50 the point of control is going to be 58 50.0 with value area low being 58 41.50 so if we break above value Area High by default I want to Target this area here then if I start seeing signs of weakness in the market I may want to play back down towards this point of control now hopefully that point of control is left as an untested point of control when we get up towards that area because that would increase the probabilities of that level being tested out now if you want to learn about Apex 3. know and all their new rules make sure to watch this video right here
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