저자: MikeSwartz · 외국인
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중동(이란-이스라엘) 긴장으로 유가·금 급등 후 증시 하락 압력. 원유 ABC 패턴 완성 임박, VIX 상승으로 Israel 공세 시 추가 하락 가능성을 언급하나 이미 가격에 반영됐을 수도 있다고 봄. 항셍지수 과거 상승 강조, 중국 주식 및 알리바바 강세 언급. 달러인덱스 102.14 돌파 시 추세 전환 주목. 나스닥·S&P500 단기 저항/목표 레벨 제시, 미국 고용지표와 FED 발언 앞두고 변동성 경계.
다듬은 글
is the stock market crash right around the corner as we see Chinese stocks rocketing to the moon and Michael Burr has bet half his portfolio on Chinese stocks and this one stock in particular we look at how the indices fared across the board today the Dow was down 184 points the NASDAQ was down 6.65 points S&P 500 down 9.6 the Russell 2000 down 1.49 now when we look at advancing issues versus declining overwhelmingly it was bearish on the day 72.1% of stocks were declining on the day when we come over and look at the sectors leading the board energy by far outpacing every other sector and the big loser of the day was essentially basic materials now we scroll down we look at the onewe performance we can also see energy is outpacing anything else and I'm going to share with you guys something real quick now when we look right here this is something we want to pay attention to oil shocks how OPC plus could soften the blow if the Middle East conflicts hit Supply now we know that the tensions between Iran and Israel are causing you know turmoil over in the Middle East causing oil prices to shoot up higher we look at a chart of crude oil this is a ABC pattern that we've been talking about for you know several days at this point we're almost at the completion point at 7428 notice today it was up 5.59% now this is going to be very important because when we dive down and we look at this on an intraday chart I want you guys to pay very close attention we have this big widespread candle right up in here and that candle comes in around 10:10 this morning now if you look at that same time period out here on the S&P 500 notice that's exactly when the S&P had its first downdraft out there this morning and it wasn't just the S&P 500 you can see that same pattern taking hold in the NASDAQ as well so one thing we want to be very Vigilant on as we are waiting to see what Israel response is going to be is anytime we see a downdraft in the market and we're wondering has Israel went ahead on the offensive one thing we want to look at just simply look at a chart of crudel Crudo is rocketing along with gold because we saw gold today also getting lifted up as well when you look at gold right around that same time period That's when gold put the low in the day and continued to Trend up higher we look at gold on the daily chart what do we do we basically have a hammer candle but for all intensive purposes we are doing nothing more than consolidating right around these price points the whole talk around 1010 this morning that was all about this right here when Biden says he's discussing Israel strikes on Iran's refineries a big shock hasn't been priced in yet now maybe it has maybe it hasn't right we don't know and today during the live stream we were discussing this quite a bit and that is the fact that when you look at the volatility index we see the vix today was up 7.62% and we were discussing this within the live stream and maybe one of the reasons we haven't seen this waterfall effect to the downside was simply put maybe a lot of Traders or investors are already head for the RIS to come we've already known there's been conflict over in the Middle East so if indeed Israel goes on the offensive is it going to be a quick blip and then boom a return back into normal now when we look at the fear and greed index today we see we're sitting at 67 in the most recent investor sentiment survey came in at 45.5 on the bull side but notice we did see the Bears creep up a little bit along with the uncertainty as well now we come over look at what Michael bur is invested in right here this article says Michael Bur bet half his portfolio on Chinese stocks and it's starting to pay off and if you come over and look at the HSI real quick the hangsang index this thing has been one heck of a rocket ship on the way up if we go ahead and we measure from the low all the way up to the high of this candle in 13 candles the HSI was up almost 34% for an index that is massive now we have basically a hanging man candle it's the weakest of all reversal patterns but still it's something we need to pay attention to if the low of that candle gets taken out watch out we are likely going to go substantially lower then we look at the one stock that Michael bur is putting a lot of faith in as well and that is going to be Alibaba and Alibaba has had quite the move up as well with China talking about stimulus and trying to stimulate their economy we can see Alibaba has been on one heck of a tear on the way up as well however yesterday we saw Alibaba close with a basically a dogee a long-legged dogee up here near the highs and we're going to see is this all sheot are they about to start pulling back down or is trying to get actually be able to pull through and actually save their economy we come over look at the dollar index today dollar Index almost coming up towards our structur breakdown point of 102.1 144 we've been talking about this area for quite some time really all the way back over in this area I thought we were going to hit it there we didn't hit it now we've come very close and we've had four consecutive days on the way up now when we look at some of the High Flyers Nvidia was able to close green today up $3.97 however stocks like Tesla still suffering quite a bit Tesla still pulling back and we're going to see will Tesla make it all the way down here potentially fill in the Gap at 22734 and we look at Apple kind of a candle of indecision you see small body wick on the top wick on the bottom on the F minute chart you can see at the very end end of the day they started buying it up now one of the reasons that maybe people are starting to buy it up maybe they've already priced in the whole Israel Iran now want to make everybody wear Apex 7 at 80% sale off all their evaluation accounts pass in as little as one day $35 reset fees and even better $85 activation fee across all the count sides is once you pass or maybe it's going be the fact of what is in store for tomorrow tomorrow 8:30 a.m.
we have the average hourly earnings we have the non-farm employment change we have the unemployment rate then at 9:00 a.m. we have fomc member William speaking so is the jobs numbers going to come out good or is it going to s or is it going to show a weakening of the labor market letting the FED go ahead and aggressively go ahead with a rate cutting campaign now when we look at the qes today we can see the qes were down 36 Cents now we did close higher than when we're open but notice Mac the indicator is trying to roll over we're spending a lot of time right around this high volume area on the composite profile 4H hour chart Mac the indicator trying to make us down towards the zero line almost there not quite at that level yet then on the 1 hour chart we're just basing out on the Mac the indicator down at these lower levels and you can really see the consolidation that has been built out out here on the 30 minute chart here's a level that we drew out this morning now we did not make it down towards that level we were able to get above yesterday's high boom they smacked it right back down if I look at today's volume profile shape it's more of a b ASM boy or lowercase b now one of the areas I want to focus on especially with the maro's economic news coming out is going to be this zone right up in here this is going to be a minus Development Area we talk about it all the time during the live stream if you want to make sure you don't miss the next live stream ut the bottom of that zone is going to be about 48 3.60 the upper part is going to be 48391 now if we can get above value area high that's going to open the door for a potential push up towards that area now does it guarantee we're going to get there absolutely not it's just something we do want to focus on this will be a Target location of mine if we can breach value area high now let's say Israel goes on the attack tonight and we start breaking value area low and then we come back up if we get back above valary low then I would want to Target the point of control value are high this level right up in here then anything above that price point then the Bears are really in Jeopardy of losing all the work that they've done to the downside and really recapturing that first down day that we had a few days back now when notice this is the area we've been talking about during the live stream if this level gives way we have two addition actually three additional targets one's going to be this high volume distribution node on the profile at about 19,799 the next one would be this minus Development Area at about 19,0 738 then we come all the way down here towards the point of control 19,064 now this is an untested point of control so it gives it a little bit more ump a little bit more of a attraction for price to make it back down towards that price point as we come over and we look at the daily profiles real quick notice for the last couple days we've done nothing more than consolidate down these lower levels this is all calls being built is it csed to go higher or is it caed to go lower we're going to find that out very soon and we look at the volume profile levels notice today valary low is at 19,90 25 we have the point of control at 19967 and we have value area high up here at about 20425 if we can breach above that price point we do have a minus Development Area that was formed out here today I'm going to go ahead and Mark that off on their chart and that's going to be right up in this zone now the lower portion of that zone is going to be 20725 all the way up here to about 2088 so make sure you have those levels marked off on your chart now when we come over we look at the Spy real quick notice we get a candle of indecision wick on the top wick on the bottom and we've basic come into this area and we're really having a hard time pushing up and out or pushing down and out we do have a gap that still needs to be filled down here about 56 1.53 along with a high volume node on that profile as well however the market doesn't care at this point it's just sitting there hovering at these upper levels we see the ma the indicator does have a bearish cross that is a fresh cross now we come over we look at the 4our chart Mac indicator making its way down towards the zero line now keep in mind if we hover up here at these upper levels Mac indicator gets towards the zero line watch out higher 1 hour chart you can see we're basically flatlined out here below the zero line then on the 30 minute chart you can see this area that we drew out this morning this minus Development Area we were able to come back and re auction that area now I'm going to go ahead and remove that zone at this time notice we are closing right near value area high so tomorrow morning we're trading above it well guess what we still have a mice Development Area all the way up here at about 571238 3.40 first time we come up into it expect a consolidation or maybe a little kneejerk back down second or third time then I expect it to push through that zone now as we come over look at the Futures markets real quick you see we've had to push down we spent a lot of time consolidating down here at these areas we still do have an untested point of control down here at 5697 7 and 3/4 we're not there yet unfortunately then we look out here on the on the daily profiles notice we are closing very high to very close to Value area high at 57 54.0 we have the point of control down here at 5741 and we have value area low coming in at 57 36.0 now if we can break above valary high this is going to be one of the targets I will want to focus on tonight so we'll see if it if that comes a for wish in during tonight's live stream but that zone right above us is going to be some in the ballpark of 5762 up here to about 5765 or so anything above that then I'm going to be watching for this Min Development Area right up in here to potentially come back and get tested we do have the news Catalyst we need to just make sure that you know Israel stays at Bay or at least it's not as bad as what some people may fear then I think we have a shot of running up here towards about 5787 and a half now if you guys would like to learn how to set up quat tower for FastTrack trading make sure to watch this video right here
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