저자: MikeSwartz · 외국인
요약 보기
JP모건·골드만삭스 등 은행주 급락의 원인으로 연준 자본규제 완화 발언과 골드만 CEO 코멘트를 지목. 원유는 반등 가능성, 달러지수는 이중바닥 가능성, 금은 기존 분석 유지. 나스닥·S&P·다우는 CPI 발표 전후 방향성을 차트 레벨 중심으로 논의하며 단기 약세/강세 시나리오를 제시. 자사 트레이딩 프로그램 홍보 포함.
다듬은 글
we're going to talk about what caused stocks like JP Morgan come Crashing Down by as much as 5% it wasn't just JP Morgan we look at Goldman Sachs it was also down 4.39% we take a look at XLF down 1% on the trading session we come over look at the fear and greed index we are still in fear territory sitting at 39 and guess what tonight and tomorrow are going to be very important tonight we have the presidential debate and then tomorrow morning at 8:30 a.m.
we have the core CPI data coming out let me know in the com section down below do you guys think the CPI data is going to come in hot or it's going to come in nice and cool and if it does come in cool does that actually mean that we are in a recession growth has slowed because let's not forget the yield curve is still uninverted the yield curve has been steepening that and alone is normally a warning sign recession is very very close now we look at how the indices faed across the board the Dow was down 92 points NASDAQ up 141 points S&P 5 00 up 24 points Russell 2000 down6 now if we come on we look at advancing issues versus declining very evenly split advancing issues 49.4% of issues advancing on the day then as we come over and look at the sectors across the board yikes energy absolutely getting destroyed followed by financials and I got to be honest with you I am not upset to see an energy on the move down that means lower prices to come for us at the gas pumps we look at crude oil today suffering a 3.67% decline and we talked about this a little bit during today's live stream however when we drop down to the 4our Chart notice what we started to see Mac the indicator Peak to the downside right over here which correlates with this little consolidation area and then now we have went substantially lower but the macd indicator at this moment is not confirming those lower lows so does that mean crude oil is getting ready to bounce in the very near future now if we start looking at where crude oil could possibly bounce to we marked this off during the live stream as well and that would about 66.67 66.9 3 that's the first minus Development Area the next one would be up here about 6722 all the way to 6752 and what I like about this secondary minus Development Area up above is if we look left we also have structure right over here and even further to the left so I think that could act as a magnet in the very near future now when we look at the dollar Index we were also talking about this today as well it's looking more and more obvious like this is is likely going to be a double bottom pattern the first area we're going to need to get through though is not only the swing point right here but then above this little structure breakdown point if we can clear 10253 that will open the gates all the way up to 10332 now when the dollar is rising normally that's going to put pressure out here for the precious metal gold but then we look over here at gold gold having a decent day on the way up trying to make its way up towards that ABC completion at 2586 and no nothing has changed in my analysis with gold I'm still seeing the same old same old however if we look at one of the two things that Jamie demon has to say today Jamie Diamond says secession planning for JP Morgan Chase is his top priority now is that the reason that we saw JP Morgan stock come crashing lower today I'm not so sure about that what about this one JB Diamond had to say Jamie Diamond says the worst outcome is stagflation a scenario he has not taken off the table yet if indeed we go into a period of stagflation watch out all bets are off but wait that probably still not the reason why JP Morgan stck Came Crashing Down lower Goldman Sachs stck Came Crashing Down lower and a majority of the banking stocks suffered a very bad beating out there today however we look at this article right here JP Morgan Goldman Sachs shares move sharply lower on Solomon's deal comments revised Capital requirements now what it goes on to say is Bank stocks fall after the Goldman CEO comments at a conference and the Federal Reserve plans for reduce Capital requirements and I think a lot of this I think this article is going to be the main reason why all the bank stocks were in the red today however if we jump over and look at some of the technology stocks like Nvidia Nvidia was able to eek out a gain up 1.63% then we jump over real quick we take a look at the volatility index the vix was down 1.9% however I want to caution you guys on something real quick yesterday we saw the vix down over 10% on the session which indicated that either today or tomorrow with it's going to be an update for the vix AKA stock market's going lower if that stat is going to hold true is that going to be because we have a very negative reaction out here to the CPI data that comes out tomorrow now if we come over look at Microsoft had a nice bullish day out there today up almost 2% on the session Tesla back on track to go ahead and try to make its way up towards that ABC pattern completion now yesterday we had an inside day but Tesla was unable to make it to the top of the Friday's candle or even towards the bottom but at least it's a move in the right direction and tomorrow's news at 8:30 is really going to hold a lot of keys we look out here at the Diamonds the Dow Jones what do we see forming a hammer candle today now the Mac the indicator on the daily chart does not look good at this moment on the 4-Hour chart which we were talking about during the live stream we can see how the macd indicator started to flatten out then on the 1 hour chart we can see the ma the indicator is crossed to the upside but it's going to be critical we make it up and out of this area we got into the Gap however the Gap was not filled today as we look at the 30-minute chart the Mac the indicator is just crossed to the upside now today we came down below valary low and just towards the end of the day we are able to get back above it however we are never never able to EK out all the way back towards the point of control now I want to make everybody we Apex 78 g as little as one day and $85 activation fee on all accounts this sale ends tomorrow then we look over here at small caps forming a hammer candle and this is something that we talked about during the live stream as well the fact that we had these two days we wash it out with a big hammer is candle today I really like this I think that's very bullish we look out here on the 30- minute chart here's that low that we were able to sweep now we've been able to recapture it so now are we going to see the small caps run all the way up here to about 210.70 up 4.2 points when we look at this we have a little bit of a hammer candle they try to slam it down only to bring it back up one of the areas I do want to focus on is going to be this high volume area at about 46250 if we break above that then I'm looking to see can we get into this minus Development Area now if we pull a Fibonacci retracement swing High down to the swing low that also correlates very well with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level so we need to keep an eye on see how this develops now out here on the 4-Hour chart you see the Mac the indicator trying to get a cross to the upside not there just yet and on the 1our chart we're making a very good separation of the macd lines making a be line straight up however if we Cann KN get out of this area that is going to be problematic because now as the Mac indicator gets towards the zero line if we're still down near these lower levels this is the area that we identified into in this morning's live stream the first 30 minutes of the live stream we do all of our market analysis and this is one of the areas that we identify with the pre-market prep and look where we came up to the First Time Boom we reject right back down then we come back up into it for a second time all day long the Mac the indicator was bullish on the qqqs and what do we see out here on the 4our chart one of the things that we were talking about was the fact that we're probably going to try to make a run towards 19,90 however when we look over here at book map as well and we scroll up here this one of the areas we talked about before we get to that area we're going to need de clear above 18,900 we can see there's 181 contracts sitting at that price point so today on the live stream we're talking about if we're going to Target 938 we need to be very cautious as we hit 18,900 well luckily for us today we did not make it all the way up towards that area but that's still going to be a point that we want to see if that order is out there tomorrow morning out here on the daily profiles what do we do well you can see we closed above valary high so what does that mean that means within the next two trading sessions we are likely going to come back and retest that level which comes in at 18,7 198.000 the point of control coming at 18, 75850 Value area low coming at 18, 64250 so how do I want to handle this very easily I want to Target this area so any sells Side Opportunities tonight on the live stream this is an area I will Target we break value area high I want to Target the point of control and then down here towards value area low but just note all right all right as a friendly reminder this is more of an aggressive play if we're above value area high you want to try to stay on the long side of the market but we do have something working our favor we have a little bit of a minus Development Area right here as well now the first time that we come into it normally we'll go like this and we'll reject and go right back out or we'll come into it and then just sit there and consolidate which also would one act as a magnet and then two we can look for this for a push up and out possibly coming all the way back up here towards that untested pointed control from last week now we come over look at the Spy not we had that hammer candle today we Wicked it on the way down buyer stepped in and they brought it right back up on the 4our chart Mac indicator is based out and then on the 1 hour chart you can see the Mac indicator has been crossed to the upside this is dangerous we need to be able to push up and out tomorrow hopefully the CPI data will be exactly what we need on the 30- minute chart you see the Mac indicator is crossed is above the zero line however we're still down at these lower levels which means we are susceptible for the market to come back down now this also applies for the NASDAQ as well and if we look right down here what do we have glaring right below us we have a gap and that Gap to be filled would be all the way down here somewhere in the ballpark of about 54041 so if we start to see weakness tomorrow this is going to be a Target to the downside to the upside however we do have further test I'm going to extend this minus Development Area out just a little bit more anywhere from about 55236 to about 5 52.7 if we get a bullish reaction I want to look for the market to push up towards that level but notice on the 30 minute chart we've had 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 eight green candles in a row which really leaves us susceptible to in the very near future get in some type of knee-jerk reaction back on the way down now as what do we see well I still believe that we're trying to make our way up towards this point of control we've already been able to retest the edge of this distribution area right here we've made it back over to this high volume Spike over here on the profile so now this is critical because the first time we come into this mice Development Area over here a lot of times we'll pull back a little bit and then we'll see if we build more calls that come up towards 5532 from a weekly perspective we're still above value area low after already being below it which is bullish for the market as long as we can stay above that price point then as we come over and look at the daily profiles real quick what do we see well we closed right near the high of the day right near value area high at 55375 the point of control will be 54 9675 value area low will come in at 54 7775 so again this is going to be very clean very simple how do I want to handle this very easy all right one as long as we stay below valary High I want to look for downside targets one being the point of control but then also right over here towards this minus Development Area all right one we could come down towards this area here and then either consolidate or push up and out of that area something I'm going to be looking for you know for tonight and tomorrow so I am looking for a little bit of weakness early on in Asia and then we'll see can we push up and out of this area now as we look at this if we break value area low where are we likely to go well then we're likely to go back down towards the candle bodies from today and that brings us all the way down here to about 54 56 anything below that keep in mind we have very poor structure on the way up right here on the profile and that would that would make sense that where we come all the way back down try to build out this profile a little bit more AKA come back and fill the gaps on the Spy now if you want to learn about my fun and features Micro Scalp and Rule check out this video right here
Comments 0