저자: MikeSwartz · 외국인
요약 보기
CPI 발표 후 나스닥·S&P 신고가 랠리, 금리인하 기대(94.9%)로 상승했으나 달러 강세·금 돌파 주목. 톰 리는 더 이상 강세 대표가 아니며 S&P 7000 도달 후 6500 부근 조정 가능성 언급. 자신은 SPY 델타 감소와 POC 이탈 시 단기 조정을 경고. 나스닥·Dow·Russell 기술적 레벨(갭 지지, value area) 중심 분석. 내일 PPI 발표가 방향을 좌우할 것으로 봄.
다듬은 글
today we saw the NASDAQ makeing new all-time highs and we just learned that Tom Le is no longer one of wall Street's biggest Bulls we look at the fear and greeding decks we are sitting at 52 just slightly over neutral now we come over look at how the NC fared across the board the Dow was down 99 points the NASDAQ was up 347 points S&P 500 up 49 points with the Russell 2000 being up one point we look at advancing issues versus declining we had 56.9% of issues advancing on the day then as we come over and look at the sectors across the board communication Services by far outpacing everything else the lagered out there today was Healthcare now speaking of healthcare if we come over we look at UNH yikes United Healthcare absolutely getting destroyed once again down 5.6% and we had a lot of big moves in the markets for instance take a look at avgo up 6.63% we take a look at Google another massive day up up 5.46% however Apple went up there rang the bell new all-time highs and Apple today not able to close at those highs and actually started to close lower on the session is this a warning sign of what could be coming out here for tomorrow and what I mean by that was today we had the CPI data come out at 8:30 a.m.
quite often when we get the CPI report and the next day we get the PPI report one of those reports will move the market up the other one will move it down well we know today by far the market was moving to the upside you had to watch out get out of the way don't get ran over by the freight train like myself which I had a red day in the markets today now we look at the CP now before we talk about Tom Lee we look at the CPI report and it says CPI report overall core inflation Rises by .3 investors bet on Fed rate cut if we actually come over look at the FED watch tool we have six days until the next fomc meeting they are now betting there's a 94.9% chance the FED will be cutting rates at the next fomc meeting here in about 6 days and that's part of what caused the market to Rally up as much as it did today however we also saw the dollar moving up again so with the FED cutting rates why is the dollar going up and with the dollar going up we also saw gold actually breaking out from this swing point and we talked about this today on the live stream and if you don't want to miss the next time I go live make sure you're subscribed and you have the Bell notifications turned on for all but we talked about this today once we saw gold was above the swing Point watch out we are likely going to go ahead and run towards 2789 we had quite the push out there today also Bitcoin being able to regain the 100,000 price point and we come over look at this article fun strats Tom Lee is no longer one of wall Street's biggest bulls and here's why he is cautious now what he does say is he he expects Bitcoin to hit 250,000 next year let me know in the comments section down below do you agree with that statement or not and we scroll this article down a little bit Tom Lee is still projecting the S&P 500 to hit 7,000 by mid 2025 so that means for the Bulls there still is a little bit more time but look what he's calling for afterwards he sees a major dip and then by the year end we get up to 6,600 now if that's going to be the case how much of a retracement is this going to be this to me looks very very significant from 7,000 down to about 6,500 is maybe a little bit lower that would be a significant pullback only to go back up to 6,600 if you're Ultra bullish to Market long term be careful there could be a little speed bump up ahead and and why this is more important than normally is we know Tom Le is ultra bullish he is always buy byy byy buy never sell always just want to be on the buy side of the market now we come over here and we look at the Spy real quick the spy and again I warned you guys about this in yesterday's video if we come over and we just simply go ahead and put on the footprint charts this is what I warned you guys about yesterday yesterday we had we've had two consecutive days of increas in Delta and I said by all means this is normally where I would exit the trade or at minimum get out near the prior candles POC what do we get today we get another move on the way up however Delta did decline a little bit today so it'll be interesting tomorrow do we go ahead and take out and make another new all-time high and if so is that Delta going to be lower if the Delta is indeed going to be lower as the market pushes up towards all-time highs that could be a warning sign that maybe we start to get a short-term pullback in this market now when we look over here on the daily you can see we had a little pullback boom right back up after essentially filling the Gap we look over here on the 4our chart 4our chart you can see we're right back up towards this high volume area we basically got into this minus Development Area right here we rejected on the way back up but now we have another problem in the market we had this Gap that was essentially Left Behind from today we look on the 30-minute chart mcdas is elevated above the zero line starting to get that Roll Effect and we have that gaping Gap below it so do we come down and potentially hit Gap support and then maybe go all the way down potentially filling that Gap and who knows maybe it's going to be caused by that PPI data coming out tomorrow morning now if you want to way to support the channel and you trade with prop firms like Apex my fun in futures or even take-profit Trader use the links in the description box down below as we come over and look at the Futures markets real quick notice how close we got to Mak it another new all-time high out here in the Futures markets what do we do we essentially came right back up towards this high volume area now we're starting to get a little bit of a rejection down do we start working our way back down towards this next high volume area slightly lower at about 6,063 kind of filling in this minus Development Area that we have down below us because as we look on the 30 minute profiles notice we had quite the move up today we have a PM Paul shaped profile and with that being said Valu high is going to be up here at 610025 the point of control will be 6,097 and a quter in value area low will be 68325 now this afternoon I was looking for the S&P to come down towards this level and I closed out my S&P short slightly right before we got to towards that zone now you look at that you might say Mike this doesn't look like a minus Development Area that's because we've traded back through it we've kind of built it out a bit now with a p shap profile I want to caution you guys if we start breaking below value area low that means we're likely going to explore the lower third in the range and that would really bring us right back here towards the top of this lower minus Development Area about 6,60 down to about 6,055 somewhere in that range would make a lot of sense now tonight when we open up we will have an untested point of control slightly above us so the question is do we dip down early on and then come up or do we simply go up and then potentially go down normally when we get these outsized days in the markets it'll end up with a Diaz and dog shaped profile for tomorrow meaning we probe a little bit higher we probe a little bit lower but we basically get stuck in a Range we don't have another Trend day back to back like we saw out here today now we come over we look at the qqqs yes new alltime highs out here for the qqqs absolutely crushing it destroying everything in the path look at Tesla today another new all-time high and on Tesla it's quite impressive because if we look out here on the weekly chart we Zoom this back this was an all-time high going all the way back to November of 2021 and now we have been able to take that level out but look at the ascent on the way up this is vertical straight up at some point we will get a correction will a correction come in January can we save it off till after the holiday season now jumping back and over jumping back over and looking at the qqqs what do we see well I have no levels above us we just keep grinding up we've smashed all the ABC targets to the upside we come over here we start looking on the 4our chart you can see we came into the middle of that channel rejected back up I thought we might come down towards the lower portion of that channel but the market had other plans in stored you see we have that minus Development Area right down here as well we start to get a pullback over the next couple days watch out for Gap support and potentially the Gap coming back from the day and getting filled at about 5258 we come over look at the 30- minute profiles notice that large gap we had up today we formed a PS and Paul shape profile and ideally what I'd like to see is if we can break above value area high AKA alltime highs in this case start coming back down we can play the point of control valary low and then look for Gap support and po po the Gap being filled now if we do see start to see bearish price action in the market tomorrow look for this low look for this mins Development Area within the profile to come back and get filled 52682 down to about 5258 anything below that I look for the low from the from today's real-time sessions and then potentially all the way down for that Gap to potentially come back and get filled now we come over and look at the Futures markets yes another new all-time high right now we're above the developing value area high and notice right where we came down into this week when we had the pull back we came right into the minus Development Area we rejected out now normally the first time into a minus Development Area will reject out or will consolidate in this case we reject it out we come back in here a second or third time that's when we're going to open up some of those lower targets that we have to the downside but in the meantime what do we have up here that I want to focus on we do have a minus Development Area within the profile right over here and that's going to be somewhere in the ballpark of about 21,000 738 which is really not that far away then as we dive down and start looking at the daily profiles this is the area I kept thinking this afternoon we were going to come back and test the minus Development Area from today's profile now today's range was 414 and A4 points a massive massive range out here so as I'm looking at this what are we expecting well value area high comes in at 21, 87.7 pointy control coming at 2,794 and 3/4 with value area low being down here at 21,000 6847 now one thing you should take note of as well we have several minus development areas and I want to warn you guys even if we come down and test out some of these areas that really does nothing to destroy the overall uptrend that the market is currently in the market does not simply go up every single day every single candle there will be pullbacks along the way and these are going to provide some great opportunities in my personal opinion now if we come over look at the Dow Jones Dow Jones was was actually bucking the trend today we had the Russell up the NASDAQ up but the Dow continued to Trend lower yesterday we came down to a 38% retracement filling the Gap and now we continue to roll is the Dow giv that heads up look at the Mac the indicator we have a bearish cross of the two lines elevated way above the zero line now as we already have this Fibonacci level pulled up the next stop would be right around the 50% level about 44058 the next level beyond that would be 438.68 2000 what do we see well we still have this lower gap down here at about 23448 we have not come back and tested we also have a gap slightly below that as well but you know the Russell 2000 was as was at least able to close up for the day even though we did not close at the highs of the session the back the lines are crossed to the downside so we do want to be well aware of that at this moment so tomorrow it's going to be critical as we look at this after the PPI data comes out are we going to see the Russell busting up or not and I basically want to look at the Line in the Sand if we're above valary low which will come in at 237.55 trades if we are above it I want to focus on the point of control valary high and then maybe even making a run back from the high from a few days back maybe towards the candle bodies at about 24098 now if you guys want to learn how to track your draw down when trading with prop firms using trade of eight make sure to watch this video right here
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