Taiwan Semiconductor Delivered Great News for Artificial Intelligence Stock Investors | TSM Stock

요약 보기

TSMC 실적발표(2025.4 중순) 기준 AI 수요는 2025년에도 견조하며 AI 가속기 매출이 2배 성장 재확인. 딥시크 충격 후에도 기술 비용 하락이 수요를 늘린다는 논리로 AI 장기 성장 강조. 다만 수요 확인은 2025년 한정이라 2026~2027년 주문 감소 가능성은 열려 있음. 2024년 기준 AI 가속기 매출 CAGR 중반 40%대 성장 전망과 높은 영업이익률(40%↑)을 근거로 TSMC를 매수 의견으로 평가.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. One of the categories I've been observing even more closely since the announcement of tariffs is how AI businesses are adapting. Are there major cancellations of AI data centers? Are there major declines in revenue for businesses that are selling AI services? These types of things are going to be even more important because so much of the artificial intelligence market is what's fueling the growth of the stock market and earnings for many companies given the increases in productivity and differentiation it adds to enterprises worldwide.

02. s one of the leading suppliers to the AI industry, and what the company has to say about the AI market has implications for a broad set of businesses beyond Taiwan Semiconductor. So, I'm going to go deeper and evaluate what Taiwan Semiconductors management team said in their quarterly conference call they held in midappril 2025 with Wall Street analyst.

03. DSM's management team said, "We continue to observe robust AI related demand from our customers throughout 2025. We reaffirm our revenue from AI accelerators to double in 2025. The AI accelerators we define as AI GPU, ASIC and HBM, I bandwidth memory controllers for AI training and inference in the data center.

04. That was a relief to hear for all stock market participants because it's not just AI businesses that will benefit from this continued investment. The fact that Taiwan Semiconductor continues to see strong demand from their customers in AI related business even after these tariffs were announced and the disruption that the tariffs caused many economies and many industries.

05. the AI market remains robust for 2025. Now, this could be for a few reasons. One of them not so great and that is the fact that to build an AI data center, it takes a lot of lead time. You've got to work with several suppliers and it takes time to build these uh data centers. And so many of the orders that Taiwan Semiconductor has today for 2025 could have been placed last year.

06. And in those contracts, there could have been a in those contracts, there could have been provisions where the customers can cancel, but if they cancel, they would have to pay a fee. I'm just saying hypothetically because I don't have the details on those contracts. They don't reveal those details with investors, but it wouldn't be surprising if that's how the contract was structured where they order certain amount from Taiwan Semiconductor ahead of time and in the contract they pay a down payment or an upfront fee for a portion of that order.

07. And they also include in there a provision that allows them to cancel or reduce the order. But if they do cancel or reduce the order, they would have to pay a fee. So some of those customers may want to cancel or delay or reduce these orders, but that fee could be what's stopping them from making that cancellation.

08. And so they stick with their orders for 2025, but then they could be decreasing their orders for 2026 and 2027, which Taiwan Semiconductor didn't really talk about so much. in this segment where they discussed AI related demand. So, while this is good news, the fact that it's only talking about 2025 specifically leaves another question mark open.

09. The company went on to say that recent developments are also positive to AI's long-term demand outlook. In our assessment, the impact from recent models, including Deep Seek, will drive greater efficiency and help lower the barrier to future AI development, which will lead to greater adoption and usage, which will require use of leading edge silicon.

10. And if you recall when that news came out about that company in China that developed this uh deepseek large language model at reportedly a fraction of the cost of chat GPT. There was a panic in the market because investors thought if this company can develop this AI technology at a lower cost, does that mean that the demand for these products, these data centers will decrease because you can spend less and achieve these results?

11. And you know, companies like Nvidia, Nvidia stock price fell 17% on the day after that news. And my argument was the opposite. My argument was at the time what Taiwan Semiconductor is saying today. I was saying and I was arguing that typically what happens when you have this kind of advancement in technology where the cost of technology decreases rather than spending on the technology decreasing.

12. What happens is spending on the technology increases because of the lower cost. It makes it more adaptable to more use cases. So where previously enterprises looked at developing technology and they noticed the cost was prohibitively high, they didn't take on that project. Now with the cost lowered, they may take on some of those projects that they deemed too expensive in the past.

13. So more broadly speaking, demand actually increases when the cost of technology decreases. And that's what Taiwan semiconductor is talking about here. The lower price of the developing these models will encourage more development which will encourage demand for more of its technology. They went on to say that these developments have only strengthened their conviction in the long-term growth opportunities from the industry mega trend of 5G, AI, and HPC, which is high performance computing.

14. To address the structural increase in the long-term market demand profile, Taiwan Semiconductor employed a disciplined and revolved capacity planning system, which is especially important when we have such high forecasted demand from AI related business. So that's great to hear for Taiwan Semiconductor stock investors, but also for industry participants in the artificial intelligence category.

15. Taiwan Semi is seeing continued robust demand and their forecasts continue to be very high. In fact, based on their planning framework, they're confident that their revenue growth from AI accelerators will approach mid 40%age compounded annual growth for the next 5 years. starting from 2024 which was already elevated and Taiwan Semiconductor remember they generate operating profit margins above 40% and gross profit margins above 50%.

16. So if their revenue is growing by mid 40% compound annual growth rate that's going to lead to robust growth in profitability for its overall business which is partly the reason why I have Taiwan Semiconductor stock rated as a bu.