저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
요약 보기
TSMC 경영진 컨퍼런스콜 내용을 긍정적으로 해석. 장기 매출총이익률 53% 이상 달성 가능 발언(현재 58%)은 해외 생산 다변화 비용의 하한선으로 봄. 2025 자본예산 약 400억 달러 재확인, AI 수요 강세와 스마트폰·IoT 완만한 회복 언급. 관세 영향에도 고객 주문 변화 없고 2025년 달러 기준 매출 20%대 중반 성장 유지. 이를 주가에 긍정적 신호로 평가.
다듬은 글
Taiwan Semiconductor stock investors got some great news from the company's management team. Many how the company would adapt to the changing macroeconomic circumstances, including the impacts of tariffs and recent developments in the AI market. Thankfully, the discussion coming out of management was very good for Taiwan semiconductor stock investors, and I'm going to elaborate on why I think that's the case, going over the company's conference call in this video here.
, the first bit of good news came from the company's discussion on their longerterm gross profit margin outlook. The management team saying, "Even considering our global manufacturing expansion plans, we believe a long-term gross margin of 53% or higher is achievable. Now, in their most recent quarter, they delivered a gross profit margin of 58%.
So, a gross profit margin of 53% might have sounded like bad news for some Taiwan semiconductor stock investors, but I perceived it to be good news because that provides a floor for where their margins will go down to as they diversify their global manufacturing footprint. So, you're probably aware of the company's biggest risk, which is that it's primarily centered in Taiwan, which is under threat from China.
And so, that position is risky for not just investors, but its customers. And so Taiwan Semiconductors biggest customers which include Apple and Nvidia have had discussion with TSM and said look we want some diversification in our supply chain and we want you to diversify outside of Taiwan and we will help facilitate that diversification.
We'll discuss with you our longerterm plans, our demands in terms of what we see in our end markets, and if you need to charge us higher prices, we might be willing to agree to higher prices in exchange for a diversified manufacturing base. So this discussion of a 53% margin longer term is good news because at the current rate they're delivering 58% gross margins which is very high and very lucrative.
And so if all that's going to decline is 5% and you're going to get as a TSM investor a more diversified manufacturing footprint in exchange for a 5% lower gross profit margin. I think that's a great exchange. And by the way, the 53% is the low. The company saying that 53% or higher is achievable. So, I thought that was great news for TSM stock investors.
Additionally, the company reiterated their 2025 capital budget and they said they expect that to be roughly $40 billion at the midpoint as they continue to invest to support customers growth. And I thought that was good news as well. I've been talking about this for several weeks now in that the stock market volatility as a result of the tariffs and what I would like to see from some of the companies is this type of news that they're reiterating their budgets not declining right I don't want to see that because that would be a signal that they see their customers cancelling pausing delaying reducing their orders.
And so if Taiwan Semiconductor got a lot of phone calls asking for decreases in the orders or let's say Nvidia called Taiwan Semiconductor and said, "Look, our customers are cancelling their orders, so we need to cancel our orders with you." and Apple calling Tai Taiwan Semiconductor and saying the same thing, saying, "Look, we see demand for our products declining, so we need to cancel our orders with you." And of course, if Taiwan Semiconductor was getting those types of phone calls over the previous four weeks, then they would have adapted their capital budgets lower and said, "Okay, we're already seeing the negative impacts this year.
Next year will likely be even worse and the following year might be a recovery year. And so let's be a little more cautious with our capital budget. Let's reduce our capital budget. But that's not what we got from Taiwan Semiconductor. They said, "Look, our customers keep calling us and ordering for products and so if our customers keep calling us and ordering products, we're going to keep investing in the growth to support our customers growth." And that's what we're seeing here.
And that's good news for Taiwan Semiconductor Stock Investors. In more good news, the company said looking at the full year 2025, they expect the foundry 2.0 industry growth to be supported by robust AI related demand and a mild recovery in other end market segments. Anything related to artificial intelligence continues booming.
So that's great news for Taiwan semiconductor. But the mild recovery in other markets including smartphones and internet of things was a positive development here. I'm not expecting very much growth in those markets, but I am expecting very robust growth in AI related markets. But the bigger news, tariffs.
The company talked about this saying that let me talk about recent tariffs. We understand that there are uncertainties and risks from the potential impact of tariff policies. But they went on to say, "However, we have not seen any change in our customer behavior so far. Therefore, we continue to expect full year 2025 revenue to increase by close to mid20s% in US dollar terms." That was great to hear, wasn't it?
that even though the tariffs are impacting stock markets worldwide, Taiwan Semiconductor hasn't seen any change in behavior from their customers. So, they continue to be uh enthusiastic about 2025 revenue expected to grow in the mid 20% for the rest of this year. And that's great news because s a result of the tariffs would need to come out and say, "Look, I know we said we were expecting this robust growth in 2025, but the tariffs have changed our calculations and we need to decrease our expectations for 2025." But we didn't get any of that.
They say, "We have not seen any change in their customer behavior." And that was absolutely great news for Taiwan Semiconductor stock investors to hear coming out of the company's, one of the company's most anticipated earnings releases and conference calls in the past several year level. It's a great place to connect with me directly, engage with like-minded investors, and learn more and take your investing to the next level. Spots are limited, so join now before it's too
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