Why Is Everyone Talking About Taiwan Semiconductor Stock? | TSM Stock Analysis

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TSM은 AI 수요로 반도체 산업 성장이 지속될 것으로 보이며, 미중 갈등 속 81억 달러 규모의 탄탄한 재무구조를 갖췄다. 2분기 매출은 284~292억 달러(전년비 약 38% 성장)로 예상된다. 미국 애리조나 등 해외 생산 확대로 매출총이익률이 2025년 2~3%p, 이후 3~4%p 하락할 전망이나 장기적으로 50%대 중반 유지 가능하다고 본다. 1분기 자본지출은 100억 달러였다.

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01. Of course, there are several reasons why so many investors are talking about Taiwan semiconductor stock. It's at the epicenter of the growing boom in being one of the primary suppliers to Nvidia, which is the company that's creating the technology that's empowering the growth in effectiveness in AI.

02. But also Taiwan semiconductor is caught in the middle between increasing geopolitical tensions between the United States and China which has led to a trade war. And so there are several reasons why this business is critically important to investors. And in this video I'm going to talk about the latest developments inside of Taiwan Semiconductor.

03. the company's growth in profit margins and plans for capital expenditures and their expectations for the upcoming quarter given the rising volatility in macroeconomic condition of the things that I thought to be very important for investors in Taiwan semiconductor stock is to evaluate the balance sheet to see if the company is prepared for difficult times because I think we are heading into difficult times macroeconomically.

04. I think growth will slow down worldwide and especially in the United States and China as the two countries place tariffs on each other and the two countries are dependent on each other. The United States is dependent on China for a lot of its manufacturing and the China is dependent on the United States for sales of its manufacturing.

05. And so with the decoupling that's underway and the increasing tariffs, it's likely to slow down both economies. And the good news is that Taiwan Semiconductor has a robust balance sheet with $81 billion in US dollar terms of capital or cash on the balance sheet. And so it has enough money to go through a difficult time for an extended time.

06. Additionally, as I reviewed the company's first quarter 2025 conference call, I was encouraged to see that they maintained their optimistic outlook. Even though I talked about some of those rising geopolitical tensions and slowing of worldwide economic growth, the category that Taiwan semiconductor operates inside, which is the semiconductor industry, is expected to continue booming because of artificial intelligence.

07. So even if worldwide economic growth slows down by 25%, let's say it was expected to grow, worldwide GDP was expected to be 5% in 2025 and it's 4% instead, which is a 20% decrease. The AI market itself is still expected to grow very very robustly, which is the market that's generating the vast majority of TSM's growth.

08. and the company's investing to capitalize on that. In US dollar terms, their first quarter capital expenditures total $10 billion. They spent $10 billion in expanding and upgrading their manufacturing facilities to prepare for this boom in demand for its products. Now, they expect second quarter revenue between 28.4 billion and 29.2 2 billion, which would be a 38% growth year-over-year at the midpoint.

09. So, very strong growth expected from Taiwan Semiconductor in its upcoming quarter. They did forecast a slowdown in their gross profit margins to 58% and their operating margins to 48%. and management said the reason for this slowdown is because of its geographical expansion and diversification. I mentioned it's caught in the middle between the United States and China in its presence in Taiwan is a risk to its investors and its customers.

10. So, Taiwan Semiconductor is investing in manufacturing facilities outside of Taiwan, most notably in the United States with an over $100 billion investment in the United States in Arizona to start building its cutting edge technology in the US so that it relieves itself from some of that geopolitical risk.

11. But the management team also said that producing these technologies outside of its core geographic location in Taiwan is going to be more costly. And so their margins are going to be lower when they're producing outside of Taiwan. So that's what they discuss here saying that we just guided our second quarter gross margin to decrease by 80 basis points to 58%.

12. Primarily as the margin dilution impact from their Arizona fabrication facility starts to kick in. We expect the impact from overseas fabrication facilities to grow more pronounced throughout the year as they ramp up further in Kumamoto in Japan and Arizona and forecast a 2 to 3% margin dilution impact for the full year in 2025.

13. In other words, their gross profit margins are likely to decline between 2 and 3% in 2025 as a result of moving production outside of its core facilities in Taiwan. They go on to say that their additional $100 billion investment plan in Arizona. They forecast the gross margin dilution from that ramp up will be 2 to 3% to start every year in the early stages and then widen to 3 to 4% in the latter stages.

14. But they will leverage their increasing size in Arizona and work on their operations to improve their cost structure. So what I take this to mean is that from the next 2 to 3 years their gross profit margin will likely decline by 2 to 3% and then in the fourth and fifth year their gross profit margin will decline between 3 and 4%.

15. Still overall the company did reassure investors saying they do expect to be able to achieve gross profit margins above 50% in the mid 50% range for the very long run. uh beyond these initial ramp stages of the expansions into newer countries. And they are likely to get some of the benefits of these investments from their customers in the form of higher prices and maybe in the form of lower shipping expense and being able to more quickly match inventory with end market demand.

16. being closer to the end markets that it's selling into. So, Taiwan Semiconductor did a lot here to explain to investors what's going on, what their next quarter's revenue expectations are, how they're diversifying geographically, and the margin impact to their business as a result of those diversifications geographically.

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