저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
테슬라 등 주요 자산에 대한 캐시 우드(ARK) 목표가 전망을 비판적으로 검토하는 영상. 캐시 우드는 테슬라 목표가를 5년 내 $1,500(기본 시나리오)으로 제시했고, 2025년 말 $500도 언급. 진행자는 이 전망이 과도하다고 평가. 진행자 근거: 2025년 기준 차량 판매 500만 대, 평균 판매가 약 $40k~47k, 자율주행 매출 $327억 등 가정이 지나치게 낙관적이라고 지적. 특히 여객 운송 매출 비중 20%, 자동차 매출총이익률 40%는 비현실적이라고 주장. 진행자는 자신의 수정 모델로 캐시 우드 목표가를 절반 이하로 줄이고 2025년 $500 수준 유지 가능성을 제시. 자율주행(FSD) 관련: 최신 업데이트로 로터리 주행 개선, 실제 주행 거리 증가 언급. 다만 Ford BlueCruise 등은 완전자율주행이 아니라고 비판. 테슬라 멕시코 공장: 블룸버그 보도 인용, 북동부 멕시코 기가팩토리(최대 100억 달러) 발표 임박 가능성 언급. 니어쇼어링 수혜 전망. 전기차 경쟁: GM은 마진이 양호하나 Ford는 전기차에서 손실, BYD 마진 약 4% 수준 대비 테슬라 순이익률 높다고 언급. 할인 경쟁이 심화되면 경쟁사 대응이 어렵다고 평가. 모델Y 인도는 2월~3월에서 3월~5월로 지연 가능성. 사이버트럭 후면 라이트바 제거 등 디자인 변경 언급. 리스크: 자율주행 매출이 월 구독형으로 전환되면 마진 구조 변화, 가격 인하 지속 가능성 우려. 진행자 결론: 캐시 우드 전망은 과장되었으며 테슬라 장기 성장 자체는 유효하나 목표가는 보수적으로 봐야 함.
다듬은 글
We need to talk about Katie Wood's crazy price target for Tesla and what's really in it . I respect Katie, but some of these ratings are crazy. Let's talk about Katie's target price . Remember that the coupon code for your wealth creation programs is valid until 11:59 PM tonight. If you would like a customized package , please email us at [email protected].
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If you would like to purchase a package, please email us at [email protected]. Okay, now we need to cover the latest Tesla news, including Katie Wood's target price for Tesla. We also need to consider some information about price reductions. We need to talk about the Model Y. What just happened to the Model Y?
We also have to give an update on the Cybertruck, because there's a little update on the Cybertruck, and I have to say, I'm not exactly thrilled with what I just saw in the Cybertruck update, and I don't like to be the bearer of bad news. I don't necessarily think I'm the bearer of bad news, but I'm the bearer of realistic news, okay?
So we'll talk about that a little bit. So let's begin. I also want to say that I downloaded the latest update for fully autonomous driving. Tesla reported in the middle of last year that we have already driven 35 million miles of fully autonomous driving. I think those numbers have probably already doubled by then , especially with the widespread release of FSD in December.
And oh my, even more improvements with the latest update yesterday. He drives better through roundabouts. He still wants to crash at one particular convention, which I have to take on every time . So he is still dissatisfied with one area. There is one particular convention that I need to take care of from downtown.
It's not like I went downtown for any particular reason. You know, there's a city hall there. Of course, you have to get permits. But in any case, there is one particular convention that is a bit awkward. But other than that, I usually have interference riding this junk. I used to have to take control at roundabouts, but I don't have to anymore.
And it handles oncoming traffic better in areas during turns, which is good. And he is also less picky about the people walking around. So, I think that's very, very optimistic for what we're seeing with FSD. Uh, Sawyer tweeted that Ford is now bragging about how people here have driven 42 million miles on FSD or their Blue Cruise variant.
Keep in mind, this is just a highway. This is, in essence, adaptive cruise control. That's right, it's not fully autonomous driving. This is stupid. This is nonsense. Uh, if you go to my Twitter profile, I encourage you to follow me, because you can see me here playing paintball without a shirt. Uh, here I am at the spa, shirtless.
Uh, if you want to see my hot dog, you can see it here too. So make sure you follow me on Twitter at real meat Kevin and you'll find out you get all the quality stuff there. In terms of current news, we also have some news regarding the plant in Mexico. Uh, I was waiting for an update and potential announcement on this .
Bloomberg provided a little information on this here. Uh , Tesla is expected to announce an investment in Mexico soon as the country works to expand its infrastructure and renewable energy supply to take advantage of a boom in companies relocating there, Mexico's foreign minister says. The Mexican government is working with Tesla, led by Elon Musk, to find a suitable location.
Uh, they've targeted northeastern Mexico, and there's speculation that Tesla could potentially announce a gigafactory worth up to $10 billion in northeastern Mexico very soon, which would be relatively close to the gigafactory in Texas, except that the average worker's wage would be about 1/4, uh, the same amount.
Uh, by the way, that's great. Thank you. Sebastian just sent me that Robinhood updated their, uh, interest rate to 4.15%. This is incredible. 4.15% on Robinhood. #not sponsored. The only sponsors we've got here are courses and coupon codes that expire tonight. Uh, what does the course symbolize? Okay, Mexico has committed to reducing carbon emissions.
Perfectly. A place for nirshoring. Mexico, especially in the northern states, is a favorite destination for companies looking to move their operations from China closer to the United States through a process known as nearshoring. However, the shortage of electricity, particularly from renewable resources, is one of the constraints that the country is trying to mitigate.
This could actually be good for the deployment of solar power, especially industrial-type solar power. There are companies that sell steel frames, motors that tilt solar panels. Of course, this is good for companies that produce inverter motors. When you start doing industrial deployment of solar panels...
So that gives us a little update. Keep in mind that there are already many car manufacturers in northeastern Mexico. In fact, Mexico is a very large exporter of cars in general. There's a Mercedes that assembles vans, cars, sprinter vans . There is a GM there. Many automotive companies assemble trucks in Mexico.
Even European ones. They send the parts and assemble them in Mexico. So let's take a look at the Cybertruck update, and then I'd like to share with you Katie Wood's thoughts on the target price, and also give you an update on the Tesla Model Y. Apparently, Tesla Model Y deliveries, uh, just got delayed, potentially, until May.
Previously, deliveries were from February to March, and now we are sitting at the level from March to May. So you have a little delay with the Model Y. Personally, I think if you're going to buy a Tesla, you should buy the Model Y. I think the S and X are plagiarism, but if you want to be a fool and buy that, you're giving Tesla more profit, that's fine.
Eh, keep in mind that I call myself a fool as a Tesla Model S and X owner. Oh, and I've never owned a Model Y. So take that for what it's worth. Do as I say, not as I do. Don't buy a plane. I just bought a plane. So, well, well, whatever, okay. I'm going to move on. Well, that's interesting, but what's even more interesting is where was it?
Well, it was. Wait a second. We want to hear Katie's target price for Tesla. Well, yes, here it is. This was during the Spaces call. Apparently, our guy ...Not our guy, uh, but Grant Cardon, uh, was conducting this Spaces call. Let's listen to this. Uh, I was wondering what Katie was saying. So let's listen to it here.
Decision. So, I asked people before you came into the room. I said, " Listen, if you were given, if you won the lottery a million dollars, and part of the condition of winning was 5 hours, you have to pick one stock." And you have to hold this stock for 10 years. Otherwise, we won't give you a million dollars.
What stocks would you invest in? Well, especially because of how badly they've been crushed lately, um, um, and we're known for that. I don't think it would be a surprise if any of your, um, listeners have heard of ARK, they've heard of Tesla. And, um, I think Tesla... So to give you an idea of that, I think Tesla hit $180 today.
We've published on our website, um, our Tesla model, and, um, you can manipulate it if you want to see how we got to these numbers, but this $180, we think, will be reached in 5 years. Now, um, this is our research, and of course we could be wrong. For reasons of relevance, I have to say this. Please rate it.
We are very confident that this $180, if you hold it and don't trade it, will grow to $1,500 in our base case scenario. Actually, it's a little more than that now . So, almost 10 for $1,500. Almost 10 times more. When? Soon. Listen. Reduction after 5 years. Why? 5 years old, baby. 5 years. Now, a little aggressive, but then again, maybe I'm aggressive too, because I have a price target of $500 in 2025, end of 2025, and that's just 3 years away.
But, listen, if you can reach $500 in 3 years, and then triple that in two years , Mom Katie, I like the score. But could it be potentially unrealistic? This would really require significant FSD revenues, and I think it's difficult to get to that level, especially because I think a significant portion of FSD revenues would turn into...
monthly payments, not upfront revenues . I think there's a good chance that this margin at Tesla will continue to decline so they can sell these vehicles and that really incentivizes people to move into FSD and make a profit there. Now Katie is also giving insight into this. I mentioned earlier that Tesla could potentially make a small, two-door, tiny car with a 20 kWh battery pack and an 80-mile range, sort of like a commuter car , and sell it for potentially $20,000 at zero cost, or maybe a small profit, or zero gross profit, I would say, uh, and make money only on FSD.
And they would still have somewhere around 30+ percent margin. That would be incredible. The margin at Tesla is phenomenal. But listen to what Katie says, uh, about the numbers. But yes, its target price is $1,500 in 5 years. Let's keep listening . I am because electric cars have entered the golden mean of their S- shaped curve, and Tesla , so to speak, is leading the way.
And, and, and just got the pun. Sorry. Charge. So just to get to the $500 target price, I mean part of the story about electric cars, it's 500 out of 1,500. To get to that other thousand, you have to believe, as we increasingly believe we will, that Tesla will be in the lead to become the autonomous taxi platform, at least in the United States.
There wo n't be many winners here. Em. And so I hear you, I don't hear you actually talking about the electrical aspect. I hear you talking about autonomous. Are you saying that with other Chevy, Mercedes, and Audi coming out with electric cars, Tesla's advantage will be in automation, or am I wrong?
I think it's both . I think it's electric cars. If you want, uh, for a certain price, if you want the same performance as a Tesla in terms of range, the same range and the same performance, uh, another car company is probably going to have to...lose money if, if, if they price their cars at Tesla's prices.
And you, as you probably heard recently, she's right. Remember this. GM actually has generally good margins. Ford is losing money on electric cars. I would like to receive segment revenue from GM. Uh, and then you have, uh, companies like BYD in China that are very competitive, only making $40 in margin, whereas Tesla makes $13 to $17, uh , in net margin, net.
This is madness. Uh , uh, it's just like that, Katie is right. Many companies would probably suffer losses, uh, if they, uh, tried to compete with Tesla. Keep in mind that GM and Ford say their cars are priced accordingly and they don't need to lower prices. Meanwhile, Ford just lowered prices on the Mach-E.
And on top of that, they're offering crazy discounts on both GM and Ford, and they expect those discounts to increase . So don't be confused by the suggested retail price nonsense that car companies come up with. Tesla is starting to use this learning curve and is starting to lower prices again. It will be very difficult for other companies to keep up with them.
So we think they have a very strong position on the electric vehicle side. But the autonomous, uh, autonomous platform, it's going to be more of a software- as-a- service model than an automotive model for an electric vehicle. So the automotive, uh, gross margin is 25 to 30%. Uh, autonomous gross margin can reach 80%.
So it's a much, much more professional position. Yes. Wow. So let's take a look at her document on this matter. By the way, Monte Carlo simulation is just putting in input data and then trying to figure out, "Okay, if we assume, you know, 40,000 different scenarios, what are the average outcomes?" Er , but Monte Carlo simulation is only as good as your actual input data.
So it doesn't matter. Just don't get distracted by it. We have to look at the input data. " Input is what matters." So, what are the inputs? Okay, in the case of Katie with the bear in 2025, she has 5 million cars sold . I have four. The average selling price is 40.45, I have 47, so it's pretty close.
However , it does include a small additional, uh , $23 billion in additional insurance revenue. It includes $42 billion in passenger revenue by 2025 . Zero autonomous transportation. I-er, I mean Tesla has shown no interest in getting into passenger transportation. So I'm a little confused by this. But, no matter what .
Gross profit of electric vehicles. I don't know how you can get this number in your example, but it won't be 40%. I don't think so. I mean, maybe, but that's crazy. These are really high numbers. Uh, and basically, she gets to the idea that $1,500 is reasonable. Okay, their 2020 figure, well, well, that's probably it...
I mean, there's no point looking at 2020. I mean, we're looking at 500,000 cars. Her bullish scenario effectively doubles the number of cars but lowers the price to 36,000. This involves introducing a car with lower revenue. But then, to get to these crazy price targets, we assume a huge autonomous driving revenue of $327 billion by 2025.
That's almost as much money as the company would make by selling 10 million cars at $36,000. Then these numbers, although they seem good, I consider them madness. Don't get me wrong. I respect Kat, and she's been called crazy many times . And she was right about her initial predictions about Tesla's growth, at least about her initial assumptions that it was a great investment.
But then again , many people made great investments in Tesla before the pandemic or even when the pandemic started. Including me. Um, but I think some of the numbers that go into this forecast are inflated. Assuming that the number of passenger transportations exceeds 20% of the company's total revenue, I do n't think so.
Assuming a gross margin of 40%, I don't think so. So, I'm going to cut all of that in half, and then I'm going to take another $200, and I'm going to stay at $500 until 2025. Because I'm just going to assume she's double guilty and then take out another $200. Um, and I'll still get $500. So, okay. This gives you a Tesla and a small Tesla upgrade.
Katie's point of view. By the way, I love my Tesla. It, uh , gets better every day I ride it, which, uh, is pretty great. This is good news. I forgot to mention the crazy part about the Cybertruck. So, here it is . This is the back of one of the latest versions of the Cybertruck, and they got rid of the cool light bar that runs across the entire back.
I hope the full light panel returns. Here you can see both sides. I don't know. Share your opinion.
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