저자: 제이비 · 한국인
요약 보기
JB는 TSMC 추가 매수를 밝히고, 엔비디아 급등과 TQQQ·SOXL 상승으로 시장이 과열됐다고 설명. 미처 사지 못한 투자자에게 TSMC를 분할매수로 접근하라고 권하며, TSMC는 엔비디아 의존도가 상대적으로 낮고 중국 리스크도 희석됐다고 주장. 채권은 서비스 PMI 하회 영향으로 반등했다고 언급하나 방향 예측은 없음. 수퍼마이크로는 엔비디아 의존 위험을 지적.
다듬은 글
Yes, hello, this is JB. First of all, as I mentioned via the link on the real-time community board last night, I have entered into additional purchases of TSMC. Looking at the comments from our membership members, at some point, they started reacting quite enthusiastically to the news of the TSMC purchase.
Actually, when I said I was going to invest in TSMC last year when it had dropped significantly, many people were skeptical, and quite a few expressed anxiety due to the China risk. However, that anxious sentiment seems to have largely disappeared now. It seems to be a stock that members are eagerly awaiting, almost second only to the news of the BNKU purchase.
Anyway, if I enter into any further purchases in the future, I will let you know immediately through the community board. Now, while discussing yesterday's market conditions, I would like to explain what the "remaining opportunities" I mentioned in the thumbnail actually are. Yesterday, the stock market was truly a grand festival.
TQQQ N (88.6%) and SOXL (14.6%), which I and our membership members invest in the most, surged dramatically, and Nvidia rose a whopping 16% despite not being a leveraged stock. In fact, this applies not only to the US stock market but also to China, Europe, and Japan. You could say that the whole world was in a festive mood.
It was a point where a slight slip in Nvidia's earnings could have led to a severe correction, so you could say it was the "Diamond" that saved the world. However, I was quite worried about bonds because when Nvidia heats up the stock market like this, it isn't good for them. Although it was quite insignificant compared to the rise in tech stocks, fortunately, the TMF finished higher.
The reason bonds closed higher could be partly due to bargain buying after falling so much, and also because the service PMI came in lower than expected. However, even though it was lower than the benchmark, the figure still remained above the reference point of 50, so I don't think it is yet too early to be relieved based on this alone.
It seems more plausible that the inflow of funds is due to the lowering of prices. Also, to add one more point, bond investors and stock investors pursue different goals. Bond investors generally aim for stable investments rather than rapid returns. Therefore, they may have judged the current stock market to be too overheated, and I suspect this is why some funds flowed into bonds.
Okay. To get down to the topic mentioned in the thumbnail, I think the people struggling the most these days are those who don't own Nvidia stock. In fact, those who don't even own TQQQ or SOXL— if you hold even one of these stocks with a significant weighting, you must be very happy right now. But if you have nothing, it has become a situation where it is difficult to endure.
On top of that, all we hear is talk that the outlook for the semiconductor industry will continue to improve. So, you are likely wondering what to do in this situation, because the prices have definitely risen too much to just jump in all at once. Therefore, the advice I want to give these people is that the most stable and manageable method is to buy in installments every day, whether it is one stock or two.
Another method I recommend is investing in stocks that haven't risen much yet but can benefit indirectly. Actually, it is fair to say that there are no longer any stocks among those that could benefit from AI and Nvidia that haven't risen yet. Until recently, TSMC was arguably the last remaining undervalued stock, but it has surged over the past few days and is now near its previous high.
However, even so, at least... If someone were to ask me to name one stock that is undervalued compared to others, considering its capabilities and potential, I would unconditionally recommend TSMC. Also, lately I’ve been thinking that it is only natural for Punggi’s earnings to be record-breaking following TSMC's.
Of course, the results this time were already exceptional, but I believe further stock price appreciation is entirely possible. Furthermore, the atmosphere in the Chinese stock market isn't bad these days. With the market sentiment so positive and China working hard to implement stimulus measures to revive it, they are n't creating a war atmosphere like the "friend or foe" debate with Taiwan.
That is because they would n't necessarily benefit from doing so. Therefore, I believe the risk associated with China has been significantly diluted. Another good thing about TSMC is that it is not a company that relies heavily on NVIDIA. Of course, they depend heavily on NVIDIA, but even if NVIDIA were to fail, other top companies are all looking for TSMC members.
Apple, Qualcomm, Google, AMD, and others are desperate to secure contracts with TSMC by any means necessary. Even though TSMC's selling price is high, despite the high cost... Since they produce high-quality products, everyone is trying to entrust their investments to them by any means necessary. So, just looking at these aspects, TSMC can definitely be seen as a beneficiary of NVIDIA, with its stability secured.
It is on a completely different level from stocks like Supermicro Computer, which is currently considered the most explosive beneficiary in this situation. While Schumaker may look very promising right now with its stock price moving so aggressively, since it is essentially an NVIDIA-only company, if Diablo makes even a slight blunder, it is bound to skyrocket in an instant.
Of course, Diablo is unlikely to suddenly falter, but I still want to point out that the risk is significant. Also, there is another sector regarding indirect investment that I am considering; I will create a separate video about that later. Okay, that concludes today's video. If I buy or sell anything tonight, I will let you know immediately via the real-time community board. See you in the next video. Thank you.
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