Bill Ackman’s Dividend King is Buying Back Shares | Lowe’s Stock Analysis

요약 보기

결론: 로우스는 재무 건전성과 자사주 매입, 배당 성장이 뛰어난 배당킹이지만 부채 증가가 우려되며 현재 주가는 적정가치 근처로 본다. 재무 지표: 투하자본수익률(ROIC) 13.1%, 잉여현금흐름 성장률 12.5%, 순이익률 약 7%(업종 중앙값 5.2%)로 경쟁사 대비 소폭 우위라고 평가. 주주환원: 최근 10년간 발행주식의 39.3%를 자사주 매입. 배당수익률 2.1%, 주당 연 4.20달러, 배당성향 28%로 지속 가능한 수준. 배당 59년 연속 증가, 최근 성장률 19.5%. 내부자 및 투자자 동향: 내부자 지분은 0.1%에 불과하며 최근 6개월간 약 65,000주(약 1,400만 달러) 매도. 슈퍼투자자 5명이 보유, 빌 애크먼이 최대 보유자이며 최근 분기 순매수(매수 약 185,000주, 매도 약 158,000주). 밸류에이션: 성장률 시나리오별 내재가치는 보수 188달러, 중립 223달러, 낙관 263달러. 30% 안전마진 적용 시 132/156/184달러. 현재가 약 200달러로 안전마진 없이는 중립·낙관 시나리오가 상승 여지, 안전마진 적용 시 현재가는 고평가 쪽. 리스크: 부채가 2000년 140억 달러에서 2019년 이후 2022년 약 240억 달러로 증가. 현재 잉여현금흐름 수준 유지 시 감당 가능하다는 입장. 출연자 전망: 현재가가 내재가치 근처이며 장기적으로 배당과 자사주 매입 중심의 견고한 투자 대상이라는 견해. 단기 가격 방향에 대한 명시적 예측은 없음.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. those companies is a dividend King that is buying back shares like crazy it is also the biggest U.S position for Bill Ackman but it is also a company that a lot of insiders are selling in recent months so let's see who's right how strong is this company and is it a good investment opportunity Lowe's companies is one of the largest Home Improvement retailers in the world they operate a chain of retail stores in the United States Canada and Mexico with more than 2 200 stores the company employs over 300 000 Associates worldwide well it is quite an impressive operation so who owns this company individual insiders that is an ex just 0.1 percent of the company is owned by individual insiders and we would like to see this number over two percent because then we know that the management will take care of the shareholders because they are the shareholders unfortunately it is not the case with those companies and our individual insiders buying that is an X in the last half a year they sold over 65 000 shares worth around 14 million dollars and the there are five Super investors that own lows and the biggest of them is Bill Ackman and I made a separate video about his portfolio so if you want to check that out the link will be in the description and our super investors buying right now that is a check but not by a large margin in the last quarter super investors bought over 185 000 shares and sold just over 158 000 shares so a lot of different views on this company and how is the Financial Health of laws looking return on invested Capital that is a check at 13.1 percent and we want to see a number higher than 10 so that is a nice return and what about free cash flow growth that is also a check at 12.5 and this number over 10 percent so all good here check the net profit margin is around seven percent and the sector median is 5.2 percent so not a huge advantage over the competitors but still an advantage and now let's take a look at shares buyback it is a very impressive check in the last 10 years they bought back 39.3 percent of the company's shares that is close to 40 so if 10 years ago you had one percent of the company right now without putting any extra money into this investment you would own 1.6 of it it's really impressive and the debt that is an X it would take them just close to three ant to see this number under two years so not a great situation but it does not look like a substantial threat to the company either and thus Lowe's companies pay any dividend it is a check they pay a dividend and the dividend yield is 2.1 percent which means you get four dollars and 20 cents annually per every share and the payout ratio it is also a check at 28 and we want to see the payout ratio somewhere between 20 and 50 percent so it is a very nice situation in which we get a really decent amount of profits through dividends but it is not so big to actually threaten the sustainability or growth of the company and what about dividend growth it is a check with 19.5 year growth rate and the company is growing the dividend for 59 years so they are a dividend King and that is a company that is growing its dividend non-stop for over 50 years that is very impressive we will have to estimate the growth of those companies low medium and a high one so in the low scenario we will estimate a growth of eight percent in the first five years and then six percent in the medium we will start with 10 and then slow the growth to eight percent and in the highest scenario 12 and then 10 since year six est scenario is one hundred eighty eight dollars in the medium two hundred twenty three dollars and in the high one 263 dollars but these are not the prices we should be buying this company for because we have to always add a margin of safety I use a 30 one just to make sure that even if my estimates are wrong I still have a decent chance of making this investment work so with such a margin we get 132 dollars in the Lost scenario in the medium we get 156 dollars and in the heist scenario we end up with 184 dollars and the current price is around two hundred dollars so without the margin of safety the medium and high scenarios are in the green and actually even with a 30 margin of safety the highest scenario is not that far away from the current price Lowe's is a company that has a very nice Financial Health incredible amount of shares buyback and a very nice stable dividend which got them to the most exclusive clap of dividend Kings also the current price is close to the intrinsic value of the company the only really worrying thing is the growing debt which went from 14 billion dollars in 2000 2019 to almost 24 billion in 2022 but if they can sustain the current free cash flow levels they should be fine that's all for today thank you for watching and I would really appreciate if you would press the like button to make YouTube know that you found this video interesting thanks again and bye bye