저자: BaldInvestor · 외국인
요약 보기
TSMC는 매출·순이익 고성장과 강한 재무건전성, 높은 자본수익률(ROIC 21.6%)을 보유한 핵심 반도체 기업으로 평가. 다만 PER 34.4로 S&P500(27.9)보다 비싸고, DCF 분석상 현재가 221달러는 중간 시나리오 적정가(안전마진 적용 116달러)를 크게 웃돌아 고평가. 지정학 리스크도 존재해 투자 매력은 제한적이라는 결론.
다듬은 글
tsmc published their financial results recently and they are simply incredible revenue is up by 38.8% year-over-year net income is up by 57.1% that is just crazy cash is also up by 45.2% and that is down by 5.7% but as investors we shouldn't concentrate on the short term but instead take a longterm approach so today we are going to go through our seven-step analysis process to understand just how strong and crucial tsmc is for the world economy what could the future of this company look like and we will also value this company to see if it could be an interesting investment opportunity or is the risk just too high Taiwan semiconductor Manufacturing Company produces about 90% of the world's most advanced computer chips there are an essential part of the success of companies like Nvidia Apple Tesla and many more that makes tsmc one of the most important company in the world located on an island that's at the center of significant tension between two major superpowers the US and China it's also important to mention that while tsmc produces semiconductors primarily in Taiwan they also have factories in Japan China and the United States their most advanced semiconductors are manufactured in Taiwan but this diversification provides a bit of a safety net if things were to go terribly wrong between Taiwan the US and China so let's take a closer look at tsmc if you invested $1,000 in this company 10 years ago you bought 44 shares and today they would be worth some close to $963,000 that is a great result and this growth is not slowing down last year the shares of tsmc went up by around 81% so let's see who benefited from this incredible growth individual insiders that is anx 0.4% of the company is owned by individual insiders and we would like to see this number over 2% but tsmc is a bit of a special case from day one it was not really a private business but a project of the Taiwan state so the fact that the majority of the leadership team has some shares is actually a very good sign and are individual insiders buying that is an X we don't see any transactions from insiders and super investors on this company that is a check with 12 super investors including David rool Steven Mandel or Chase Coleman and are super investors buying right now that is an X recently they bought almost 700,000 shares and sold over 2.6 million shares so uh a meaningful difference but let's try to understand why 12 great investors believe in tsmc and its future return on invested Capital that is a check at 21.6% 10-year median returns and we want to see this number higher than 10% so that is a very nice result and what do we know about net profit margin it is also a check averaging 30 38.4% over 5 years and the industry median is 5.2% so that just shows the position of this company in the entire ecos system and now let's take a look at share buyback it is an X at 0% the number of shares of tsmc is not changing at all so basically it is an ex and a check at the same time yeah that makes sense right okay and the debt it is a check it would take them just over a year to pay the long-term debt with a current free cash flow but what is very important is that they also have twice as much cash as they have thatb so their financial situation is absolutely great but Financial Health is only a part of the story as investors we have to own a strong Stable Company but what really makes such a company a great investment is its growth Revenue growth that is a check at 13.2% 10-year compound annual growth rate and we would like to see this number higher than 10% so uh a nice growth free cash flow growth that is a check at 16.6% in the last 10 years so even better and earnings per share growth that is also a check at 16% in the last 10 years so that is very impressive we of course see companies growing much faster but when we take into account that they are growing organically without any substantial debt or without issuing new shares then it starts to look really nice because such growth is not only sustainable but much more secure for the long-term future of the company and as investors we love growth but we can also get some of our money back thanks to dividends the dividend yield is 1.1% so shareholders can expect to get $247 cents annually per every share and the payout ratio that is a check at 34.7% and we want to see the payout ratio somewhere between 20 and 50% so that is very nice we are getting a decent amount of earnings as dividends and the company keeps the majority of it to support growth and what about dividend growth it is a check at 2.8% 5-year growth rate so even though dividends look nice it is clearly not a dividend play there is much more to this company so let's see can we get it at an reasonable price price to earnings ratio is 34.4 so that is a lot average PE for D S&P 500 is 27.9 so basically the entire Market is expensive but for tsmc we have to pay even more now you may argue that this is obvious because it's such a great company however we must also remember that no company no matter how great is worth an infinite price but to properly value tsmc we will use a discounted cash flow analysis and if you would like to know how to Value companies by yourself using for most commonly used models then head over to stock investing.
Academy and choose our company valuation course okay so first we have to estimate the growth of tsmc for the next 10 years and we will make three scenarios low medium and high one so in the low scenario we will estimate a growth of 12% for the first 5 years and then 10% in the medium 15% and then 14% And in the high scenario 19% and then 177% growth so the lowest scenario is below the predicted growth of the industry which is around 14.9% medium is close to the predicted growth and also to the growth we saw from tsmc in the last decade and the high one is showing a story in which this company will actually accelerate its growth and with changes in the world like Ai and Robotics it is possible so with such estimates the intrinsic value in the low scenario is $131 in the medium 167 and in the highest scenario $214 but we have to always apply a margin of safety to those prices I use a 30% one and with such a margin we get in the low scenario $91 in the medium 116 and in the high one 150 and the current price is around $221 so tsmc is definitely expensive and for one of the most important companies in the world that shouldn't come as a surprise but probably because of the geopolitical tensions it is not crazy expensive but before we make any investment decisions let's try to put everything we learned into perspective tsmc has great Financial Health nice growth and a dominant position in the industry and that is all great but we also have to take into account the geopolitical risks and the price which is not exactly a bargain but let's actually use our stock ranking Pro which you can get access to by becoming a patreon and compare tsmc with some of other great businesses so let's filter our ranking so that we will see only semiconductor companies and let's sort them first by net profit margin and we see that tsmc has the highest margin of them all it also has the second lowest debt and when we get to our scores we see that tsmc has the third highest overall score so that just proves the quality of this company but let's see how it Compares when it comes to valuation let's go to Value difference so as you can see it is somewhere in the middle we can find much cheaper companies but also substantially more expensive ensive ones as well well it is very appealing to own shares of one of the most important companies in the world but we should take into account that it is not only quite expensive which is understandable but also that there are extra risks associated with this company because of its location but then again if tsmc gets into trouble basically all the tech companies will be in trouble thanks for watching and see you in the next one
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