Bill Ackman’s Fast Food Empire | Restaurant Brands International Stock Analysis

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결론: 레스토랑브랜즈인터내셔널(QSR)은 강한 브랜드와 높은 이익률이 장점이나, 과도한 부채와 배당 부담으로 현재 주가(약 65달러)는 비싸다고 평가. 재무건전성: 투하자본수익률(ROIC) 3.4%로 기준(10%) 미달, 잉여현금흐름 성장률 24%로 양호, 영업이익률 15.1%(업종 중앙값 5.1%)로 가격결정력이 강함. 주주환원·희석: IPO 이후 약 8년간 주식 수 29.6% 추가 발행으로 주주 희석이 심함, 자사주 매입은 없음. 부채: 부채 상환 소요 기간이 2년을 넘어 우려되는 수준이며 규모가 매우 큼. 배당: 배당수익률 3.2%(연 2.16달러), 배당성향 68%로 기준(20~50%)을 초과해 지속가능성 우려, 5년 배당성장률은 23.8%지만 최근 둔화. 내재가치: 보수적·중간·낙관 시나리오 및 30% 안전마진 적용 시 각각 12달러, 15달러, 29달러로 현재가 65달러보다 크게 낮음. 낮은 밸류에이션은 부채 영향이 큼. 투자자: 내부자 지분 1.6%, 최근 12개월 내부자 매도 위주. 슈퍼투자자 3인 보유(빌 애크먼 포함), 2022년 3분기 애크먼·리 아인즐리 약 37.5만주 매수. 종합: 사업 품질은 좋으나 부채·희석·배당 부담과 높은 주가로 인해 매력도는 낮다는 판단. 영상은 첫 단계 분석일 뿐이며 개별 투자 판단 전 직접 실사가 필요하다고 강조.

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01. rest around Brands International is a multinational fast food holding company it was formed by a merger between Burger King and Canadian coffee shop and restaurant chain Tim Hortons the company expanded in 2017 when they purchased an American fast food chain Popeye's Louisiana Kitchen and in December 2021 they bought Firehouse Subs for 1 billion dollars so they are expanding all the time and restaurant Brands International is currently the fifth largest operator of fast food restaurants in the world so it is a massive company made of a number of very strong Brands but is it a good business and furthermore is it a good investment let's find out first let's see who owns this company individual insiders that is an X individual insiders own 1.6 of this company and we would like to see a number over two percent because then we know that they have their skin in the game but most of the leadership and board members have some shares so it is not that bad and our individual insiders buying that is an X for the last 12 months we almost only see sales from Individual Insiders and do there are three super investors that own this company including Bill Ackman and I did a video on his portfolio so if you want to check that out then the link will be in the description and our super investors buying right now that is also a check Bill Ackman and Lee einsley bought over 375 000 shares in the third quarter of 2022.

02. so it is a mixed situation insiders are not interested in buying right now but some very smart investors are and now let's check the Financial Health of restaurant Brands International return on invested capital that is an X it is 3.4 percent and we want to see a number higher than 10 percent so that is not a great beginning and free cash flow growth that is a check it is 24 and a number over 10 percent so this growth is really nice check at 15.1 percent it is a very nice profit margin since the median for the sector is 5.1 percent and that shows us that restaurant Brands International has a lot of pricing power and now let's take a look at shares buyback that is an X since IPO which took place around 8 years ago they issued 29.6 extra shares so that is not good because shareholders are getting diluted quite substantially and that it is also an X it would take almost 10 ould like to be able to pay the debt in under two years so uh that is worrying and that's restaurant Brands international pay any dividends yes they do it is a check and the dividend yield is 3.2 percent so the annual payout is at two dollars and 16 cents per share and the payout ratio that is an X it is 68 and we want to see a payout ratio somewhere between 20 and 50 because if it is over 50 percent then the dividends can be in trouble they can become unsustainable it is also an information for us that they spent so much money on dividends and they could spend them on the growth of the company or paying back debt which is very substantial so are the dividends really such a great idea for this company well doesn't seem like it and what about dividend growth it is a check it is 23.8 percent five-year growth rate so the dividend is growing extremely fast but luckily for the last three four years they really slowed down this growth so if they keep this trajectory the payout ratio should get below 50 percent so that is a wise strategy this company low medium and a high one so in the low we will estimate the growth of five percent for the first five years and then let's say it will slow down to three percent per year in the medium seven percent and then four percent and in the heist scenario we will go really high 13 for the first five years and then seven percent scenario is 17 in the medium twenty two dollars and in the high one forty one dollars but these are not the prices we should be buying this company for we have to always add a margin of safety I use a thirty percent one and with such a margin we get twelve dollars in the Lost scenario fifteen dollars in the medium and twenty nine dollars in the heist scenario and the current price is around 65 dollars and such a low valuation is in a big way influenced by the debt of this company and it is massive so we have a company with a very strong mode made by great Brands and really nice profit margin and it is a part of a portfolio of Bill Ackman so one of the most successful investors out there but this company also has a massive debt and a dividend that is slowing its growth and on top of that the price seems quite high so let me know in the comments what is your view on this company and its future and remember that before making any financial decisions you should always do your own due diligence and that this analysis should be treated only as the first step in understanding this company that's all for today thank you very much for watching and remember to like this video if you found it interesting and subscribe to the channel if you want to see more videos like this one thanks again and bye bye