저자: MichaelBurry · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 마이클 배리는 대형 폭락이 올 것이라며 시장 낙관론을 강하게 경계하고, 비트코인과 밈주식을 특히 위험하게 본다. 거시 경제: 미국 개인 저축이 2013년 수준, 저축률이 2008년 수준으로 떨어지고 신용카드 리볼빙 부채가 급증해 소비 침체와 실적 악화가 임박했다고 주장한다. 인플레이션 지표도 계속 오르고 있다고 언급한다. 시장 과열: 밈주식 거래에 월가까지 가세했고 신규 자금이 거의 남지 않았다며 1999년, 2007년과 유사한 과열 신호라고 본다. 옵션 시장의 감마 스퀴즈가 주가를 밀어올리는 구조도 지적한다. 게임스탑: 과거 게임스탑 강세론자였으나 2020~2021년 보유 지분을 차익 실현하며 정리했다. 비트코인: 가격이 나스닥100 등 위험자산과 나란히 움직인다고 보고, 6만 달러에서 2만 1천 달러 수준으로 하락한 흐름을 근거로 투기적 거품이라고 평가한다. 중앙은행이 위협으로 볼 수 있다는 리스크도 언급한다. 대상 종목 중 비트코인에 대한 1~3개월 방향 예측은 하락으로 본다. 출연자 및 기타 전문가 의견: 폴 크루그먼은 암호화폐 붕괴를 예견 가능했다고 평가하고 폰지 사기에 비유했다. 크리스 캐너스(유사 인물)는 암호화폐 시장을 약탈적 정크야드라 부르며 사기성 수수료 구조를 비판했다. 마크 큐반은 싼 돈에 의존한 기업들이 주식·암호화폐 시장에서 사라질 것이라 전망했다. 일론 머스크, 로버트 기요사키, 로이드 블랭크페인 등도 경기침체 경고를 냈다. 유의: 영상 자체는 전문적인 투자 조언이 아니며 제작자의 연구와 의견이라고 명시한다.
다듬은 글
legendary investor michael berry foresaw the two most recent crashes although berry once gained notoriety for foreseeing the 2008 housing meltdown his perpetually pessimistic outlook hasn't worked in his favor lately we could all be moving towards the crash of the century as he describes it because the market is responding in such an unnatural and dangerous way berry tweeted at least i tried two weeks earlier days later when the stock market saw a significant reversal and became positive he tweeted a headline from 1929 when a similar situation occurred and everyone believed everything was okay just before everything fell apart this is all a lie a bigger crash is coming mitchell bury believes a bigger crash is coming but what stocks are going down and what will happen after investor michael bury identified a misunderstood out-of-favor stock loan before retail investors on reddit inundated public boards with gamestop theories now bernie sees hints of the frothy markets of 1999 and 2007.
i don't know when meme stocks like these will crash but we probably won't have to wait long because wall street has joined the bandwagon and i think the retail audience is completely involved in this topic according to bury who spoke with barons through email there is a limited amount of fresh money left to join the bandwagon bertie who made a major appearance in the book and movie the big short after making a profitable wager against the housing market before the implosion of subprime mortgages thanks meme stocks are the newest wall street fad that might harm normal investors everyone who was profiting from dot com stocks according to him thought the trend would continue in 1999 people who were wealthy in 2007 and leveraged the hilt in numerous properties believed it would also continue bernie continued momentum and social media are now a part of the strategy for wall street and they are in a better position that retail to participate smith out and start gamma squeezes in the options market the latter part of his statement alludes to increased demand for shares caused by market makers scrambling to hedge call options they sold a phenomenon that probably fueled mean stock trading bury rose to prominence as a game stop bull in the second half of the year in august of the same year he told baron that concerns regarding disc glass consoles were exaggerated with the launching of new sony and microsoft consoles in 2020 he anticipated recovery in free cash flow retail investor keith gill praised berry's bold thesis on the now famous warring kitty youtube channel which foresaw the possibility of a gamestop squeeze bertie could not have predicted the epidemic and the ensuing console shortages but his prediction was undoubtedly coming true as shares started to rise in the second half of 2020 although he adds for me if i get within years of a thesis being true i'm thrilled the majority of people concentrate on days weeks or months after chewie co-founder ryan cohen disclosed a 9 stake in the business and demanded significant changes in 2020 the stock price surged back to double digit levels according to regulatory records bury eventually sold the remaining portion of his gamestop investment for a profit during the fourth quarter of last year when questioned about businesses like gamestop and amc entertainment holdings which have sold millions of shares at skyrocketing stock prices burger notes that it wasn't that long ago the gamestop was repurchasing millions of dollars worth of stock his recommendation as long as they go with the law he believes businesses should be able to sell stock for these businesses this is a blessing bury continued as many many listed companies will attest having cash on hand alone does not justify significant multiples from the market michael bury a well-known investor and the founder of the investment company scion asset management issued a warning on friday about an impending consumer slump and additional earnings difficulties he is well recognized for being the first investor to predict and benefit from the 2007 to 2010 u.s subprime mortgage crisis in the big short a michael louie's book on the mortgage crisis that was adapted into a christian bail starring motion picture he is highlighted bury clarified on friday through twitter despite having trillions of dollars poured into their laps the u.s personal savings fell to 2013 levels and the savings rate to 2008 levels while the revolving credit card debt increased at an unprecedented rate back to the pre-carpet peak a consumer recession and new earnings problems are on the horizon two photos are included in his tweet the first reveals a dramatic fall in personal savings in the united states the other demonstrates a sharp increase in outstanding consumer credit as of the time of writing bury's tweet had 476 comments and had received 11k likes and approximately 2.5 k retweets on twitter many users sided with bury thanking him for bringing up the subject and urging others to take nominees advice someone said this is wild even when we dropped cash from helicopters on people their personal savings decreased and their credit card debt increased exactly what i said inflation is not a concern another person wrote debt from consumers is a problem monetary policy that favors demand is flawed the market cannot be corrected through rate manipulation americans were flush with money instead of concentrating on spending shift your attention to long-term savings stop importing a different commenter said the stats contradict the media's desire for the narrative to emphasize how strong consumers are energy costs are close to highs we haven't seen since 2008 along with decreased savings greater debt and inflation indices that are continually climbing month over month numerous people concurred that statistics don't lie and that the u.s economy seemed to be at least as dire as bury had predicted ellen musk the ceo of tesla robert kiyosaki the author of rich dad poor dad and lloyd blankfein the senior chairman former ceo of goldman sachs are just a few of the people who have recently issued warnings that a recession is either already underway or is just around the corner in a recent tweet michael bury targeted bitcoin remarking that the most expensive cryptocurrency has recently moved practically in lockstep with the biggest usit stocks the investor from the big short fame tweeted are we sure bitcoin is not just another risk asset in the nasdaq 100 the price of bitcoin which has fallen from over sixty thousand dollars in november to roughly twenty one thousand dollars has fallen in line with the stock market index according to a chart he attached in the past buried has called bitcoin a speculative bubble and issued a warning that central banks may view it as a threat to their currencies which would hinder its growth additionally the ceo of scion asset management has linked the cryptocurrency boom to the dot-com and housing bubbles and warned that ordinary investors in mean stocks and cryptocurrencies are heading for the mother of all disasters in a recent new york times piece paul krugman presented the collapse in cryptocurrency values as predictable this may be the point where the ponzi scheme has run out new victims if you think as i do that cryptocurrency is mostly a ponzi scheme in his earlier editorial this month the seasoned economist and nobel winner compared the cryptocurrency rise to the housing bubble he compared the struggle of cryptocurrency enthusiasts to accept their coins may be worthless to how most americans struggle to accept that housing prices may be greatly exaggerated and that trillions of dollars of real estate riches may be destroyed the big short appears to have given way to the big scam according to krugman on a recent episode of bloomberg's odd lots podcast channels criticized the cryptocurrency market he claimed that tokens haven't replaced dollars and haven't succeeded in serving as portfolio hedges saying a lot of the concepts underpinning crypto's early popularity have basically proven to be not there or wanting the head of kaneko's associates and seasoned short seller also accused some cryptocurrency companies of defrauding their clients and compared them to ponzi schemes he described the larger crypto market as a predatory junkyard and he stands by that assessment this enormous ecology around it arose overnight in order to essentially extort fees from unwary investors mostly retail ones in a recent interview with fortune mark cuban expressed concern that failing cryptocurrency businesses may be forced to close companies that were supported by cheap easy money but didn't have sound economic potential will vanish in the stock market and the cryptocurrency market he predicted but this video is not professional financial advice but purely based on our own research and opinion here comes to the end of the video catch you up in the next one bye bye
Comments 0