저자: MichaelBurry—소속은영상내명시없어Scion추정표기 · 외국인
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결론: 마이클 배리는 2022년 증시 폭락이 아직 초기 단계이며 S&P500이 현재 수준에서 추가로 약 50% 더 하락할 수 있다고 본다. [배경] 2022년 2월 배리는 연준의 대규모 부양지출로 인플레이션이 발생한다고 트윗했으나 당시 연간 물가상승률은 1.7%로 낮았다. 이후 인플레이션이 8% 수준으로 올라 그의 주장이 현실화됐다는 평가가 나온다. [하락 전망 근거] 배리는 S&P500 저점 1866포인트가 2000년 저점보다 13%, LTCM 위기 저점보다 17%, 코로나 저점보다 15% 낮다고 언급했다. 과거 폭락의 저점은 직전 저점보다 약 10~15% 낮아지는 경향이 있어 이를 적용하면 1862포인트 부근이 나오며, 이는 현재 대비 추가 약 50% 하락을 의미한다고 설명했다. [반등에 대한 해석] 최근 약 6.5% 반등이 나왔지만 배리는 단기 반등은 장기 하락 추세 속에서도 흔하다고 주장했다. 2000년 이후 나스닥은 78% 하락 과정에서 10% 이상 반등이 16회 있었고, 다우도 89% 하락 과정에서 10회 있었다고 제시했다. [거래량 및 자금 흐름] 2022년 하락기 거래량이 아직 크지 않아 본격적인 매도는 시작되지 않았고, 시장으로 자금 유입이 이어지고 있다고 보았다. 향후 매도 거래량 증가로 더 큰 하락이 올 수 있다는 입장이다. [역사적 비교] 배리는 닷컴 버블과 대공황 직전 S&P500 흐름과 현재 흐름의 유사성을 차트로 제시하며 '인간 본성은 반복된다'고 말했다. 또한 직전 1년간 역대 최대 규모의 투기 버블을 목격했다고 트윗했다. [경제 펀더멘털] 인플레이션과 금리 인상으로 소비자 부담이 커지고 있으며, 미국 개인저축률이 2013년 및 2000년 수준으로 떨어지고 리볼빙 신용카드 부채는 코로나 이전 최고치를 넘어 소비 침체를 예고한다고 봤다. 아마존 1분기 매출 성장률이 7%로 닷컴 붕괴 이후 최저 수준이라는 점도 소비 약화의 사례로 들었다. [리스크·조건] 금리 상승, 저축 감소, 재량 지출 감소가 기업 수익성 악화와 주가 하락으로 이어질 수 있다. 배리는 현재를 '첫 이닝(first inning)'에 불과하다고 평가했다. [출연자 전망] 영상 진행자 발언 외 별도 출연자는 없고, 배리 본인 트윗과 주장을 중심으로 구성됐다.
다듬은 글
Michael Burry expects US stocks to fall further and many investors to incur heavy losses. The Big Short, a comedy/drama from Paramount Pictures that year, demonstrated how Burry had gained millions by correctly predicting and capitalizing on the subprime mortgage crisis that had afflicted the United States from 2007 to 2010.
Few people listened to Burry in 2005 when he bet against the housing market, but now they are more likely to pay attention since he has a lot to say about how the market will develop over the coming years. In this video, we will look into Michael Burry's 2022 Stock Market Crash prediction. If so, how can you safeguard your possessions?
Here’s Michael Burry's Warning for 2022. Earlier this year, in February, Michael Barry tweeted that there would be substantial inflation as a result of the Federal Reserve's historic stimulus spending. He used the hashtag "doomed to repeat" and criticized the US government and the Federal Reserve for their trillion-dollar stimulus program.
And he was the dissenter at this time. All appeared to be well at the moment. Although the Fed was producing money, inflation remained low. The most recent data available at the time indicated an annual inflation rate of just one point seven percent, which was below the Fed's target. He was simply early, in typical flaming fashion.
Twelve months later, we're already seeing an inflation rate of 8%, which is so high that practically anything on YouTube can become a broken clock in one to two years. Naturally, Burry tweeted a month ago in response to Elon Musk's post in which he referred to Barry as a "broken clock." But what's really intriguing is that Michael Barry hasn't simply been doing victory laps over the previous few weeks.
Instead, he has been extensively tweeting about the reasons he thinks this economic crisis and ensuing market decline are just getting started. To begin to comprehend Michael Barry's thoughts, I do want to at least go over his entire reasoning. He does believe that the worst is yet to come. Thus that is the main message.
So much so that he believes the S and P 500 might drop another 50% from where it currently stands. Barry tweeted on May 3rd about paradigm shifts and speculative peaks, saying that the S and P 500 had bottomed out at a value of 1866, which was 13% below the low of 2000, 17% below the low of the LTCM crisis in 1998, 10% below the low of the 1970s, and 15% below the COVID low.
The S and P 500 had bottomed out 17% below the low of 2000, and 97% below the low of 1908. The bottom of a current market crash, however, is typically lower than the one that came before it by about ten to fifteen percent. Adding that fifteen percent below the S and P 500 low from two thousand and twenty brings us down to eighteen sixty-two points, according to the trend we've seen over the past twenty-five years.
That's absurd since it implies that Michael Barry expects a peak-to-trough decline of 61.4%, which would return us to the historically usual shoulder p of about 16. In essence, Michael Barry predicts that the stock market will decline by a further + 50% from where it is now. Given that the market has recently had a six-and-a-half percent bounce, this daring prognosis has once again drawn criticism.
However, as we have seen over the course of just the last few days, short-term bounces do not necessarily indicate that things are in the clear. Michael Burry also made a comment regarding this conceivable scenario. He recently tweeted, quote, that twelve out of the top twenty Nasdaq one-day rallies occurred during the 78% decline from the peak of the 2000s.
Nine of the top 20 S & P 500 one-day rallies occurred during the eighty-six percent decline from the peak in 1924. Even at the darkest periods, the statistics reveal that it's actually pretty normal to have robust short-term recoveries among the longer-term downward trend. Again, there are a lot of numbers to process, but that's what he's getting at here.
On this slope, twelve of the top twenty Nasdaq bounces took place. Along this slope, nine of the top twenty S and P 500 bounces occurred. He said, "After 2000, on May 5th, the Nasdaq had sixteen bear market rallies above 10%, averaging twenty-two point seven percent, before bottoming out at a decline of seventy-eight percent." The Dow experienced 10 bear market rallies above ten percent, averaging twenty-two point eight percent after 1921, before bottoming out at a decline of eighty-nine percent.
Burry, therefore, exudes confidence despite the fact that it is still in its early phases. Of a far more serious issue. He also took the opportunity to comment on the relatively modest trading volumes we have observed so far during the two thousand twenty-two downturn, which he used to support his claim.
If you look at the trade volumes, even if the market has slowed down considerably in the year 2002 and everyone appears negative from what you hear the market's withdrawals haven't even truly begun yet. The markets are still receiving cash inflows. Therefore, in Burry's opinion, during the next few years, there will probably be a lot more selling volume, which will result in much higher falls in the stock market.
And he stated he didn't want to have to deal with that situation. He tweeted on May 24th, as I mentioned earlier, in the year 2008: I'm not smiling, it aches, and it's like seeing a plane fall. The crucial thing to keep in mind about Michael Barry is that he has already witnessed this happening twice, once during the dot-com bubble and once in 2000.
He has repeatedly observed these recurring tendencies in human behaviour. He has researched the great booms and busts' excess and greed. We can see the S&P 500's run-up over the past 10 years in white. We can see the buildup to the dot com bubble in yellow and the buildup to the great depression in green.
The degree of their similarity is somewhat ominous. Third time a charm, gotta love human nature, Michael Burry adds in response to this. He tweeted that he had just witnessed the biggest speculative bubble ever, by two orders of magnitude, just a year prior. Maybe it's reached its breaking point in his eyes right now.
But of course, the stock market is all that matters here. We must keep in mind that Burry's viewpoint is fundamentally driven by the economy. We already know Barry's views on inflation, and it's true that the Fed is raising interest rates to make it more difficult for businesses to borrow money. However, it's important to keep in mind that rising interest rates also have an impact on consumers, who are the basic pillars of the economy.
You know, in difficult inflationary conditions, that results in significant increases in interest rates. Unfortunately, consumers have less money to spend because paying off debt consumes a larger portion of their savings and income. This typically triggers a downward spiral since lower discretionary spending results in lower sales for the businesses in which we have investments.
The customer should preferably be breaking it in. Burry has recently, however, made hints that the current state of consumers isn't great. US personal savings, according to the quote, decreased to levels seen in 2013. the savings rate to levels seen in 2000, while revolving credit card debt increased at a record-setting rate, returning to its pre-COVID peak, foreshadowing a consumer recession and additional earnings difficulties.
Barry is obviously concerned about the depletion of savings, and not simply because it encourages consumers to use credit cards more frequently in an environment with rising interest rates. But also because decreased spending results from smaller savings, which impacts the bottom line of the companies in which we have investments.
You know, Barry recently cited Amazon's Q1 performance as one anecdotal piece of proof. According to CNBC, Amazon's revenue climbed 7% in the first quarter compared to a 44% expansion in the same time a year prior. Since the dot com bust in 2001, it represents the slowest rate for any quarter. Burry said, "And the second period in a row of single-digit growth, and so Amazon says to GDP." Your customer is getting weaker.
Following up on that, Barry also tweeted a comparison of US personal savings and GDP. The savings cover a decreasing percentage of the GDP in America. At a time when the US GDP is declining. In general, these factors—inflation, rising interest rates, a decline in consumer savings, and a consequent decline in discretionary spending—lead to poorer business profitability and, as of yet, worse stock ratings for companies.
Bari believes that we are still only in the first inning. It's a pretty fascinating subject to investigate. What do you think of Michael Barry's ideas? So, do let us know which topic we should cover next, If you enjoyed the content, give us a like, and please subscribe to know more. See you at the next one, bye!
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