저자: PeterLynch · 외국인
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워런 버핏·피터 린치 투자 원칙을 소개하는 교육 영상으로, 이해하는 곳에 투자하고 감정을 통제하며 장기적으로 리서치하라는 메시지다. 린치는 1977~1990년 마젤란 펀드 연평균 약 29% 수익을 기록했으며 이는 S&P500 성장률의 약 두 배라고 소개된다. 투자 원칙: 10살 아이에게 2분 안에 설명할 수 없는 사업에는 투자하지 말고, 경쟁사·산업 환경·리스크까지 파악하라는 것이다. 감정 관리: 시장 주식 투자에서 가장 중요한 장기는 '뇌가 아니라 위(stomach)'이며, 20% 하락에 매도할 것 같다면 주식 비중을 줄이라고 권한다. 리서치: 재무제표(현금·부채, 이익률, 매출·이익 증가 여부)를 직접 확인하고, 주식은 복권이 아니라고 강조한다. 간접 수혜: 골드러시 때 곡괭이·텐트를 판 사람이 돈을 벌었듯, 인터넷 수혜를 받는 비인터넷 기업이나 장비 제조사를 찾으라고 제안한다. 예측의 한계: 주식시장 예측은 시간 낭비이며, 1982년 같은 경기침체나 2020년 코로나 폭락처럼 예측 불가능한 사건이 많다. 손실은 불가피하다고 본다. 영상에서 언급된 개별 종목 가격 예측이나 방향 발언은 없다.
다듬은 글
Peter Lynch, one of the greatest investors ever, oversaw the Fidelity Magellan fund, one of the most well-known and successful mutual funds in the 1980s. The net asset value of the Magellan fund increased by around 29% annually on average between 1977 and 1990, which is nearly twice as fast as the growth rate of the S&P 500 index fund.
In today's video, we'll talk about some investing tips from Peter Lynch! So, stay until the end of the video to learn it all! Any investor would struggle to make a 29% profit in a single year, and doing so over a long period of time is extremely rare. Thankfully, Mr Lynch has shared his ideas on investing with others.
One Up on Wall Street, Beating the Street, and Learn to Earn are just a few of the well-liked books he has written that are widely recognized as classics. Invest in what you understand. Understanding what you own and why you own it is the fundamental tenet of this concept. Whether it be in the stock, futures, or cryptocurrency markets, consumers frequently fall for "hot recommendations" that guarantee quick financial success.
Lynch believes that a potential investor should be well-versed in the company, background, rivals, industry environment, and hazards. Many businesses are simple to comprehend, while many others are as complex. He believed that an investor shouldn't fund a business if they can't in two minutes or less describe what it does to a 10-year-old.
Understanding, for instance, that a specific corporation creates cancer-treating medications is insufficient. It's important to understand what medications the company already sells, how well they're selling, what medications are in its pipeline and how near to going on sale they are (noting that many drugs never clear clinical trials well enough to make it to market).
You must be aware of the drugs your rivals are developing and putting on the market. Businesses that produce and sell soda, candy, or shoes are usually simpler. Be sure to thoroughly understand the businesses and sectors in which you invest. According to Lynch, if you're willing to invest in a company, you should be able to explain why in terms that a fifth-grader could grasp rapidly enough to prevent boredom.
"In the stock market, the most important organ is the stomach. It's not the brain." The market's erratic behaviour over the past year following the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic has made plain what Peter Lynch was getting at in this comment. Investors who want to accumulate money over the long run but don't have the stomach for market volatility should look elsewhere.
Lynch claims that each day, a person must question themselves in the mirror, "Will I sell the stock and get out if the market drops by 20%?" If the answer to the question is yes, the investor should consider selling some of their shares immediately. According to Lynch, an investor should make a decision using their brain and have the fortitude to stick with it because decisions made using emotions can be a major performance killer and cause you to panic sell stocks when the market is down and buy overpriced stocks when it is up.
If market decreases cause you to sell out in a panic or market rises cause you to hastily buy overpriced shares, emotions can hurt your results. The smartest investors will take the opposite action. It's best to be greedy when others are scared and afraid when others are greedy, as Warren Buffett once joked.
Do your research. Many people invest in stocks after reading only a brief description of them in an article or, worse, after hearing only a brief description from a friend or acquaintance. For optimum results, carefully examine a company's financial documents, noting its cash and debt balances, the size of its profit margins, whether and how much its revenue and earnings are increasing, and other relevant data.
Stocks are not lottery tickets, as Lynch stated. He emphasizes that excellent businesses will generate positive returns, whereas bad businesses will not. Even if he purchases a stock a few years after its IPO, an investor might still earn returns many times his initial investment. Investors shouldn't hurry into purchasing stock in a firm unless they have faith in it and the potential profits it offers.
Due to the rise of social media in recent years, many investors now consider FOMO (fear of missing out) a significant consideration when making investment decisions. Gather several suggestions for promising businesses, research them, and decide which ones still seem the most promising. Peter Lynch says, "The game is won by the player who moves the most rocks.
That has always been my guiding principle." Never buy in a company before doing your research on its earnings projections, financial situation, competitive position, plans for expansion, and other factors, he added. “Predicting the stock market is a total waste of time.” This quotation is extremely pertinent now, as we saw in April 2020, when the COVID-19 epidemic caused the global financial markets to crash, and every professional forecast and technical analysis came up empty-handed.
This was an unparalleled event that affected every nation on earth. Numerous domestic and international events, many of which are unpredictable, have an impact on the economies of various nations. Nobody anticipated that 1982 would bring forth the worst recession since the Great Depression, with 14% inflation, 12% unemployment, and a 20% prime rate, according to Lynch.
As a result, the investor should emphasize the fundamentals of the firm they have invested in rather than worrying about things they have no influence over. An organization is more likely to perform admirably, even in unforeseen circumstances, if its foundation is strong. Look past the obvious. Here's another one from Peter Lynch: "During the Gold Rush, most would-be miners lost money, but people who sold them picks, shovels, tents, and blue jeans (Levi Strauss) made a nice profit.
Today, you can look for non-internet companies that indirectly benefit from internet traffic (package delivery is an obvious example); or you can invest in manufacturers of switches and related gizmos that keep the traffic moving." It's simple to spot stock ideas that are good, but frequently, many others have already done so, driving up the price of the shares.
But frequently, numerous additional businesses support those operating covertly. For instance, Apple has experienced tremendous success, yet several suppliers provide the components for its hardware, such as Universal Display. If you have high hopes for e-commerce, you might investigate numerous shops and delivery providers like FedEx and UPS.
You might consider looking into equipment manufacturers for the restaurant sector, like Middleby. Recognize that there are ambiguities. According to Lynch, stock investing is an art rather than a science, and those who have been taught to precisely measure everything are at a significant disadvantage.
That's crucial since investing isn't just about arithmetic and statistics. Consider this classic disaster tale as an illustration: Even though numerous Nobel laureates oversaw the Long Term Capital Management hedge fund, it crumbled in 1998 and required a multibillion-dollar bailout. Making educated predictions about a business's performance is a key component of investing in individual stocks; when a number of skilled and intelligent people research a single firm, their predictions and perspectives may, therefore, disagree.
An excellent example is the automaker Tesla, which has both fervent supporters and detractors. “You don’t have to “kiss all the girls.” I’ve missed my share of ten baggers, and it hasn’t kept me from beating the market.” Many investors base their stock selections and portfolio adjustments on the performance of the previous year's stocks.
This makes the portfolio disorganized and frequently works against the objective of wealth building. Investors should choose and invest in high-quality stocks that they believe will produce exceptional returns over the long term rather than chasing the market's top-performing stocks or funds in the short term.
“Although I have missed some supermodel stocks, I have kissed some pretty stocks in my career too. I wish I could have invested in more stocks that increased multifold, but this has not hurt my long-term performance.” Lynch's investment principles and philosophy were straightforward, as they are for all successful investors.
He stayed within his area of expertise and refrained from letting his emotions influence his choices, which allowed him to generate returns that many people are still unable to match, despite the availability of sophisticated tools. Expect losses while investing. When investing, it's necessary to be prepared for losses.
No matter how successful or unsuccessful an investor you are, they will occur whether you invest in managed stock mutual funds, index funds, or individual equities. Even Warren Buffett and Peter Lynch have made mistakes, as Lynch noted: "If you're successful at this business, you'll be correct six out of 10 times.
Nine times out of ten, you're never going to be accurate." If you enjoyed the content, give us a like, and thank you for subscribing to our channel! See you at the next one. Goodbye!
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