저자: RayDalio · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 레이 달리오는 과잉 통화·부채 확대로 인플레이션과 스태그플레이션 위험이 크다며, 현금 대신 분산투자(자산·국가·통화)와 리플레이션형 포트폴리오를 강조한다. 거시 진단: 정부·중앙은행의 대규모 부채·통화 발행, 미국 내부 갈등, 미·중·러 질서 재편이라는 3가지 전례 없는 현상이 나타나고 있다. 인플레이션 전망: 2020년 이후 과도한 통화 증발이 물가를 끌어올렸고, 당시 미국 인플레이션은 8.3%(근원 기준 약 12%)로 제시됐다. 연준의 대차대조표 확대와 재정적자가 맞물린 결과로 본다. 연준 정책: 금리 인상과 유동성 축소의 이중 압박이 시장에 부담을 주고, 신규 부채 비용을 높이며 인플레이션을 더 키울 수 있다고 봤다. 과거 비교: 1970년대 후반~80년대 초 과잉 대응 사례가 반복될 수 있으며, 2022년 스태그플레이션 확률을 약 33%로 제시했다. 자산 시장 전망: 모든 자산군의 향후 10년 기대수익률이 낮다고 봤다. 과거처럼 금리 인하로 자산 가격을 밀어 올리는 방식은 어려울 것이라 했다. 투자 전략: 60/40 같은 단순 배분보다 자산군·국가·통화 분산이 가장 중요하다고 강조했다. 주식·부동산·금·기업 분산을 권고했다. 지정학·사회 리스크: 우크라이나 전쟁이 3차 세계대전으로 번질 위험을 33% 초과로 봤고, 미국 내 내전 가능성도 언급했다. 교육·법치 수준이 높은 국가가 장기적으로 성장한다고 봤다. 전략 요약: 현금 보유는 구매력 감소로 손해이며, 인플레이션 방어를 위해 주식·부동산·금·기업을 나눠 보유하라는 메시지다.
다듬은 글
American hedge fund manager and billionaire investor Raymond Thomas Dalio have been with Bridgewater Associates, the largest hedge fund in the world, since 1985. Hello everyone, and welcome back to our channel! In today's video, we'll talk about Ray Dalio’s final warning! So, stay until the end of the video to learn it all!
In 1975, Ray Dalio established Bridgewater Associates, which he later expanded into one of the biggest hedge funds in the world by 2005. His hedge fund had 107 clients as of 2022, and it was managing about $235.5 billion in total assets. According to Forbes, Ray Dalio is the 67th richest person in the world with a net worth of almost $22 billion.
He follows markets, geopolitics, markets, and economics as a macro investor. According to him, based on his own historical research, there are three phenomena happening in our lifetimes that have never happened before. The massive production of debt and money by governments and central banks. The degree of internal strife the United States is experiencing over how our taxes are used and disparate values.
The shifting global order and how China and Russia are now competing with the United States as never before in the past 80 years of modern history. History teaches us that depressions are primarily caused by debt and liquidity crises, which are resolved in one way or another by easing, a monetary policy that evolves through time.
Money's value might not endure forever or it might depreciate, but in the end, they always ease and you will experience that type of reflation movement and shift. Therefore, reaching zero interest rates does not lower the ceiling on central banks' ability to loosen. If you look at the past, you can see that it has occurred consistently in the same manner and that it lends itself to three different kinds of assets.
According to Dalio, the massive money printing that has increased since 2020 first produced credit and seemed to be a good thing but eventually resulted in too much money chasing a fixed amount of goods and causing inflation. Economics is merely math and increasing the amount of money in circulation results in an equal increase in pricing.
The Federal Reserve's increased balance sheet, money printing, and the government's budget deficit all combined to produce a high inflation rate that is currently running at 8.3%, or 12% if you take core inflation into account. Whether or not there are supply chain bottlenecks, inflation results when the amount of money being printed exceeds the availability of goods and services.
As a result, a currency's purchasing power is reduced. Currently, governments prefer to utilize inflation as a policy rather than taxation because people can more easily accept the effects of inflation on prices and their ability to spend their money. By lowering the value of savings accounts, bond holdings, and paychecks, inflation acts as a tax.
In terms of investing, your portfolio is actually down 28% if the S&P 500 index is down 20% year to date and inflation is up 8%. The Federal Reserve's present monetary strategy, which raises interest rates while also putting a limitation on the amount of money in circulation, is putting a double squeeze on the markets by causing inflation, reducing the amount of capital available for credit, and raising the cost of new debt.
People may spend their money to purchase things that retain value, such as real estate and investments, when they understand that holding cash is a losing proposition due to falling purchasing power. This may result in inflation that continues to rise. People went to extremes in the 1970s and the first few years of the 1980s to prepare for rising inflation, and the Federal Reserve also raised interest rates excessively.
As a result of both actions, inflation was finally stopped by an overreaction to it. Dalio thinks that the present inflation cycle is a repetition of the previous one. The future course of the global power dynamics will be determined by how China resolves its disagreements with the United States, which it now competes with on a number of fronts, including economic commerce and military might.
The conflict in Ukraine has forced nations throughout the world to choose sides. The future globe will be shaped by these alliances. When one believes that cash is not a secure investment and that stocks and bonds are not what they once were, they are making a dangerous investment. Instead of focusing only on equity returns, one must consider the idea of a storehouse of wealth.
It is necessary to approach balancing differently. All of the issues Dalio is raising are not ones that are frequently considered. They don't reflect the typical investing experience over the past several years. One must travel back in time and study earlier times that were similar to the current one in order to comprehend historical lessons and even what is more likely to occur.
And when we did that over the past 500 years, it became clear that we had no idea when the value of money and the stock of wealth would decline. When we consider what a diversified portfolio for an easing that occurs at that time would look like, it resembles a reflation portfolio. And how do you compare that measurement to other factors?
Dalio believes that the Federal Reserve and other central banks will not allow an implosion to occur without printing a significant amount of money, that is the one thing in which we can be confident. We are aware of current interest rates. You are aware of the return you will receive from a ten-year bond if you choose to purchase one.
And if you then calculate the expected returns of other asset classes, you will find that all asset classes—including private equity, venture capital, and so on—have extremely low expected returns. This means that if you were to simply hold them over the next ten years, they would all have a very low return.
So, that is a reality. We also know that monetary policy has an impact on different asset classes. We, therefore, know that some of the things they did in the past, such as lowering interest rates and doing other things, which enabled asset prices to grow, won't be able to happen in the future, but that is the nature of the situation.
The next question is how to approach it from the perspective of investing. Balance must be achieved, making diversification more crucial than ever even if it will have a lower yield. So, do you prefer a portfolio of well-balanced assets or an asset-class return? This is what Dalio said, "Let's say if you take a 60-40 stock/bond mix, if you take stocks, or if you take any of those things.
No, I believe that starting with diversification is the most crucial step. By diversifying, I mean diversifying among asset classes, nations, and currencies. This is because, in my opinion, the one thing we know for sure is that we don't know very much about the future and that it is difficult to predict what will happen.” Therefore, we should practice humility, and since the markets are reasonably effective at making those comparisons, it's not as if one thing is inherently superior to another.
Even while we are aware that some investments offer better diversification than others, we still believe that achieving balance should be as reliable and risk-free as feasible. Therefore, when we look to the future, we can predict that premiums and excess returns will both be lower, but it is still preferable to have a diverse portfolio.
Even though there will be a lower excess return, it will still be more stable since the components' combined low returns will result in a higher excess return. Concentration on a single asset class, nation, or anything else is risky, as history has shown, and it is risky right now. As a result, when we look at it, for instance, reflation is what we perceive.
The nations with the best educational systems will produce inhabitants who are highly productive and earn high wages. The amount of education in a country can be used to measure a lot of its success. In contrast to those nations with issues of high crime and corruption, those nations that have a well-established rule of law and maintain law and order will grow over time as they draw investments and immigration.
Over the following ten years, there is a 52% inverse relationship between a country's growth rate and its level of corruption. Russia is the most wealthy nation in terms of commodities, but it is also one of the most corrupt, which lowers its output. According to Ray Dalio, there is a 33% chance of stagflation in 2022, which is inflation during a downturn.
As people choose sides and even relocate to states that correspond with their political ideas, Dalio predicts that the United States will see a civil war within the next 33% of years. If Russia loses, Dalio believes there is a larger than 33% risk that the conflict in Ukraine would turn into World War 3, and he believes there must be another way to win.
To protect against both inflation and stagflation, Dalio advises diversifying your assets among stocks, real estate, gold, and companies. With that, we've come to an end! See you next time! Goodbye!
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