저자: CNBC Television · 외국인
요약 보기
론 배런은 스페이스X와 테슬라의 합병 가능성에 대해 개인적으로 머스크에게 서한을 보냈으며, 결정은 독립 위원회와 머스크의 몫이라고 밝혔다. 그는 두 회사에 투자하고 있으며 지금까지 약 300억 달러의 수익을 냈고, 향후 10년간 수천억 달러를 벌 수 있다고 전망했다. 미국의 발전 용량 부족과 중국과의 격차를 언급하며, 우주 기반 데이터센터가 2028년경 의미 있는 규모에 이를 것이라고 주장했다. 또한 사이버트럭 생산 라인을 로보택시 로봇 생산으로 전환하겠다는 머스크의 발표에 대해 언급했다. 배런은 테슬라 투자 경험을 돌아보며 장기 보유의 중요성을 강조했다. 다만 그는 이러한 전망이 투자자 입장에서의 낙관적 견해임을 전제로 한다는 점을 함께 밝힌다. 본 요약은 원문 내용에 근거하며 투자 권유가 아니다.
다듬은 글
Let me ask you a question first. When we last spoke, you asked about a possible SpaceX-Tesla merger, and back then I held my tongue because the company hadn't publicly said it was considering one. Since then, Elon Musk has said an independent committee is reviewing the question. Could you be a bit more candid about that? I think I should steer clear of politics, but I'd also like to know how regulatory issues and other variables might change the likelihood of a deal given this development.
You're asking about things no one can predict or control. When this first became public, I spoke with Musk directly and wrote him a letter. I told him my reasons for thinking the merger was positive or negative. I said I wouldn't state my view publicly, and that the decision was his to make. I don't run either company, and I'll support whatever he wants. He clearly wants to do it, and that's plain.
The question is whether the independent committee wants to do it, and at what price. Whatever they decide, we'll support it. We invest in both SpaceX and Tesla, and a large share of our assets sits in those two companies.
I think we've already made about $30 billion with Musk so far. Over the next ten years I expect us to make tens of billions, no, hundreds of billions, I mean several hundred billion dollars. Whether the two companies merge or stay separate, the money gets made either way, is that how you see it? To me it doesn't matter. He'll make the best choice for both companies and for operating efficiency.
Looking long term, do you care about the premium itself? Tesla's independent committee will weigh whether a premium is needed or already priced in. No, I'd rather not get into that.
What I care about most is making chips and supplying power in this country. Do you know that the US has about 550 gigawatts of generating capacity? Do you know what China has? Three times that. China builds about 300 gigawatts a year, and we build about 20. On chips, China is well behind us, but on power we're behind them. We need more power, and Musk is working on that. He's increasing supply, and we want to use the sun, doing it in space. Lots of people talk about data centers on Earth, but what do you make of what's happening in space?
People say it's ten years away, but it isn't ten years. Google has already launched satellites and shown it can work. Musk says launches start in 2027 and 2028, with data centers in orbit. Problems we face on Earth go away once they move to space. Politics is always a problem, but the Republicans aren't in power right now. Do you genuinely believe orbital data centers will be running at meaningful scale by 2028, or is that just a first test?
They'll grow a lot within a year or two, and by 2028 they'll be at a meaningful scale.
I see. The reason I ask is that people like Jeff Bezos also say orbital data centers will come, but I think his timeline is much longer. You mentioned ten years. Of course they all have their own interests, so they're talking up their own things, the same way I'd sell you my book.
One more question. I don't know if you saw the report from yesterday, but Musk said he'll end production of part of the Cybertruck and move that line to robots, meaning robotaxis. How quickly do you think that will roll out across the US?
It's rolling out quickly now. I can't tell you exactly what happens when. Most investors right now focus on how many cars were added this week, how many this month, how many are coming off the line today. Right now those numbers look like everything, but the way to make the most money is to recognize that nobody knows exactly what's happening at any given moment, while still watching whether things are moving in the right direction. Growth will steepen sharply before long, and if you're an investor at that point, you'll benefit.
When I first invested in Tesla, the stock was between $200 and $300 a share. A few years later it had tripled or quadrupled. People said, "Ron, it's obviously going up, why not sell at 300 and buy back at 200?" My answer was: "If you do that, you'll probably miss it. I can never know. I don't know what will go up or down." So I didn't sell a single share, and the stock rose twentyfold. After that I sold a quarter of the holdings belonging to clients, not my own money. Then the stock doubled again, and now it's up forty times. I expect it to rise another five times over the next ten years. Over the long run, everything else is just a short wobble, and that's really the case. If you invest in a good company, this has been the most remarkable investment of my career.
I'm 83 and have been doing this for fifty-six years. I've never seen a company this remarkable in my life, and this is the most extraordinary period the world has ever experienced. You're also getting older now. Yes, I'm getting older too. We still believe this country will eventually do the right thing. I don't know whether it will last forever. At the end of life, people look back on what they left behind and find it hard to believe how much they've changed from where they started.
Did you sleep well Tuesday night? Not everything always goes smoothly. I slept well. Good, I'm glad to hear it. So you believe both sides will correct themselves? There's only one thing I can control: understanding the business I invest in.
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