저자: CNBC Television · 외국인
요약 보기
CNBC 'Squawk Pod'의 2026년 11월 6일 방송(오디오 전용)은 중간선거 직후 미국 주식시장의 대규모 매도세를 중심으로 다룬다. 나스닥은 하루 약 2조 5천억 달러의 시가총액을 잃었고, 매그니피센트 7 종목들은 합산 1조 달러가 빠졌다. VIX는 3월 이후 가장 높은 수준으로 올랐다. 방송은 금리와 원자재 흐름도 함께 짚는다. 국채 금리는 10년물 4.8%, 2년물 4.4%였고, WTI 원유는 배럴당 약 90달러 수준이었다. 진행자들은 이번 하락이 앤트로픽의 기업공개(IPO) 전망에 대한 의문으로 이어졌다고 논의했다. 반도체 ETF SOXX는 2020년 3월 이후 최악의 하루를 기록했다. 테슬라와 스페이스X도 최소 9% 하락했다. 이에 대해 론 배런은 머스크 관련 정치적 불확실성보다 장기 사업 성장과 인플레이션 대응이 더 중요하다고 강조했다. 머스크의 사업 전략도 다뤄진다. 데이터센터 규제, 우주 데이터센터 전망, 사이버트럭 생산라인의 로봇 전환 등이 논의 대상이었다. 후반부에는 Kalshi CEO 타렉 만수르가 출연해 예측시장이 이번 중간선거를 정확히 맞혔다고 설명했다. 방송에서는 예측시장과 여론조사의 일치 여부, 예측시장이 '투자'가 아닌 '거래'라는 성격, 과거 곡물선물을 둘러싼 논쟁과 도박성 논란, 주말 거래와 위기 대응 문제 등이 함께 논의되었다. 방송 내용에는 진행자와 출연자의 의견이 포함되어 있으며, 이는 투자 권유가 아니다.
다듬은 글
Bring in show music, please. Hi, I'm CNBC producer Katie Kramer. Today on Squawk Pod, a massive market selloff just days after a change election. This is why people like though divided government. They didn't like it that much yesterday. Is the pace and the size of big technology and the influence of its leaders too much too soon?
We'll talk to noted investor Ron Baron, billionaire and bull on Elon Musk's SpaceX and Tesla. You got this brilliant guy, once in a-lifetime person building these businesses that no one else can build. He thinks political retribution against Musk and others is not an option. Phil, can you predict this?
I cannot. Can you predict this? No. So why bother? Let's talk about the business. Then Koshi CEO Tar Mansour, the money traded on these midterms. Who predicted the blue tsunami? prediction markets and the polls were right this time. It's like asking does this does Apple stock react to the quarterly earnings of Apple.
Like the markets are not creating information. They're weighing all the information that's out there. And but what's unique about the markets is that they're weighing information from a much broader set of people. It's Friday, November 6th, 2026. My horoscope said I'm supposed to be optimistic today.
So, good luck. SquawkPod begins right now. Stand Andrew by three two one up and Q. Good morning. Welcome to Squatbox right here on CNBC. We are live at the NASDAQ market site in Times Square on a Friday morning. Barely barely barely. I'm Andrew Osorin along with Joe Carin. Becky uh is off. Let's take you through some of uh the uh highlights or maybe low lightss from yesterday's market selloff.
It came just a day after averages jumped following the midterm elections. Uh fears of a clampdown really more than anything else on the AI trade once Democrats assumed power in Washington leading to the worst day for the major indexes since markets sold off in the wake of President Trump's liberation day tariff announcement.
You may remember some now 19 months ago. The NASDAQ and the small cap Russell 2000 falling into correction territory. And then the magnificent seven stocks, they collectively lost a trillion dollars in market cap. In total, the NASDAQ lost roughly $2.5 trillion in market cap in one day. On Truth Social last night, President Trump saying, quote, "The stock market crashed today because the Democrats Democrats saying not Democrats, but Democrats had a big Tuesday.
So sad to see. You only have yourselves to blame." exclamation point. Uh meanwhile, the VIX hitting its highest level uh since uh March. Of course, that is an indicator of uh the jitters. We ought to that's showing today's shows, but it should show yesterday. It was up about seven or eight. It was up about seven or eight points
and that's the real issue. Uh we should also show you Treasury yields and we should also show you energy. Uh though those are maybe less the issue at the moment. The 10-year at 4.8, the 2-year at 4.4. four and then energy WTI crude at 90 bucks. Uh you can uh get Brent now at 9821 and all of this leading to questions about the anthropic IPO which we'll talk about in just a little bit because that of course has been underpinning so much of the economics of everything.
We'll let people decide what it's worth. I was just throwing out numbers, but uh I'd say they'd be happy with 1.5 trillion now. I think they'd be very happy. Oh, I think 1.5 they'd be happy now. Extremely happy. Yeah. Watching it yesterday as it slowly uh just got worse and worse. The markets. Yeah.
Watching it as it slowly got worse and wor I thinking about the day before and what a head fake that was with a lot of people saying this is when you put you know some governors on presidential power the market loves it. Well that lasted that lasted about five minutes. Uh, and it made me wonder, did you know that I hope it's not the new normal, Andrew, but what really got me as I watched it was the S&P.
Okay. Oh, it's down, you know, 70, 80, 90, 100, 200, 300. That's where I started thinking, this is serious cuz we went from, you know, we were not that far from highs at 7,800 and and we ended up heading down to it was so it ended up down four and a half% that didn't match the NASDAQ. The NASDAQ was looks like it was headed down 2,000 points at one time and that was down 5 and a half%.
By the way, I'm not sure it's so much about what you think is happening in Washington per se as to what you think is going to happen in the states. So, when you hear this new governor in Texas say, "I'm for AI data centers, but I want to create laws before we permit new ones." We have always been a pro business state in Texas, but what changes now with me as governor is it has to be a partnership that benefits Texans.
And right now what has happened is data centers have moved into mostly rural communities and there are no rules and laws to protect Texans and Texans are being taken advantage of. So the difference is we will have laws to protect Texans. That could take time. What do those laws look like? How does that work?
Um you you heard Dena Powell uh make a comment uh after this that you know would they ultimately start to build data centers in other countries as a result of this. Every hyperscaler is now thinking about is you know do we need to build outside the United States because they're enormous investments and hedging those investments is is a wise thing to do.
I mean that other planets well that's and and Elon of course talking about going to space but in terms of just the the speed of which we can actually build these data centers what that means and does that actually create a slowdown on the other end of this AI trade and I don't know I was going to since we don't debate anymore and and we only converse I was going to if you were going to ask me what was going on I was going to say why don't you just be me and you know exactly what I would say don't you you can give my five reasons for why that happened yesterday.
So, I don't even want to I don't even want to bother or try to talk you into anything, but we're in some some dicey times here. The scary thing for me, Andrew, is okay. Elizabeth Warren, chairman of the most powerful financial services. I I don't know what I don't know what that means. I saw Bernie yesterday.
Bernie doesn't mean hearings. It means hearings. It means investigation. It doesn't mean new laws. You know why? And that's what what we come back to. What makes me both it it's gratifying but but frightening to me is that Donald Trump at this point even though he may have been somewhat culpable on what happened he's all that stands between a a Democratic Congress a and so you're going even you I think at some point are going to have to count on him to be the bull work from some crazy things happening.
This is why people like though divided government. They didn't like it that much yesterday. And and then I started thinking about how the market went up when when Trump said he might be willing to I don't want him working with what what type of you that's on you. Okay, Andrew. No, social security fine.
Healthcare may be fine. But they aren't going to going to come to his uh side or Republican side on anything. So, anything that gets done is going to be him going over to their side of things. Could be. And he's, you know, he was a Democrat for how many years? He 10 years or eight years ago, he was talking about raising taxes on on the wealthy and he got talked into that and then he got talked out of it.
So, well, so do you think that taxes are on the table? That's a question. I know. There was an interesting piece in the Wall Street Journal yesterday about estate taxes and whether um wealthy Americans are going to be calling their accountants to try to figure out how to gift money and do all sorts of things over the next two years because of a concern that actually if there was a Democratic pres Democrat president in 2028 that all of a sudden there
making my point for me again. I know I I'm making it for you. No, that's what I asked you to. Oh, actually, I don't know why I started talking because I said I was going to let you. Let's talk about video. Let's talk about one more. So, Bernie Sanders, you heard what he was saying about AI yesterday.
Is he on the far left of the party? He's kind of in the center now, isn't he? He he he's almost a moderate Democrat. When you think of the DSA people, those policies that that some of them were espousing, I don't think Americans really understood what the ramifications could be. They just hated Trump so much that some of that went.
But if that any of that stuff becomes law, I have a semblance of confidence that that those that are truly in this sort of social piece of the the wing are not strong enough to actually bring the whole party to be nationalizing businesses if that's where you're going with this. Not just that, but there there are half measures that that are well on the way to doing that that hope and that now we're back to
but we've been nationalizing our own businesses this administration, so it's okay. And you know what else Trump yesterday said? I'm blaming the the the Democrats for the market. He's the president when it goes down historically and you look at the all the numbers and the receipts. He's going to be the one and and some maybe somewhat responsible that the Democrats are in this position right now.
So, it's uh my horoscope said I'm supposed to be optimistic today. So, good luck. A lot of football on tomorrow. Kind of that's exciting, right? Uh let's look at some of the big uh tech names. Nvidia lost 9%, Broadcom 10%. Both AMD and memory chip giant Micron shed about 17%. Neocloud sealing a lot of the pain.
Coreweave lost almost 10%. Magnificent 7 stocks also dropped but less than some of the hardest hit names tech names. Uh the eyesshares semiconductor ETF saw its worst day uh since COVID uh hit in March of 2020. Elon Musk companies Tesla and SpaceX both got hit down at least 9%. Some investors worried that Musk could face congressional probes and worse.
If you listen to these wackos that have a podium somehow Scott Galloway character um and other strict regulation under Democrats the the 10 list the list Andrew included we've run up so much obviously on all this stuff that that's not surprising. There's been some pre-shocks to all this in the last couple of weeks, has there not?
There's the circular financing that's going to come home to roost. The thing that I'm watching is what happens in the next two weeks funds. What about some people, you know, what about some of the biggest funds? Did that look like they were liquid liquidating yesterday because they had to yet? I don't think we're there on that.
There was, you know, there were some rumors about some of these funds in in that are AI, you know, leveraged AI funds out in the valley. I think some people were focused on those yesterday. I'm more concerned about this anthropic IPO as sort of the lynch pin because baked into the cake of the valuations of some of the of Amazon of Google of all of the of Microsoft all of them have stakes in anthropic and by the way they all have stakes in open AI and so if you don't get the anthropic IPO off at whatever valuation you think therefore the valuation of open AI is not the same all of a sudden um it just it and and then the question is what and they've made commitments they've made huge commitments to both themselves both both to the hyperscalers and to neoclouds and others for all of these for all of this compute either they're not going to be able to get the compute because of regulation or they're not going to be able to pay for the compute because uh the the economics of the business aren't good enough
but the optimistic viewpoint it will work itself out for AI and it's almost an unstoppable oh force absolutely I'm just saying but then there's valuation a period of time where it gets complicated. I know but long term Oh, long term it's un it's just the momentum is%able 100%. That's that's all we got.
But but then you should then you should be buying all these stocks today if that's the case. Can't buy anything. You know, all we can really have is Comcast and Version. Both of which were up yesterday. I saw that. I saw a defensive play. You Why would you notice those? Let's talk about this story because I think this is going to have a huge ramification for the Republican party one way or the other and what happens in 2028.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio brushing off reports that he's considering leaving the Trump administration. In an interview with the New York Times, Rubio said he loves the work he's doing and it has always been his plan to work for President Trump until the end of Trump's second term. Now, Rubio also serves as President Trump's national security adviser.
He ran for president of course back in 2016 when he was little Marco uh and has been viewed as a top potential candidate for 2028. Rubio declined to speculate to the times on his political future. Though it is worth commenting that it is impossible, actually illegal from what I understand to run for president in 2028 as the secretary of state.
Meaning you cannot be in that role and also be running um in any meaningful way. It's almost a physical possibility. So if he is going to run, right, he would have to step down at some point. He will serve out this term as secretary secretary of state, president unless he decides not to after what he said yesterday.
That that's the way this works. If something could change tomorrow, there's also an argument to be made potentially depending on what you think is happening in the country. If he thinks that the country has moved away from Trump, it may be that he says to himself, 2028 is not my year, right? 2032 is my year,
right? I could see that. That's possible, too. I I don't know. Did the what suddenly Dantis moved up move up even more after uh Oh, no. I think I think the big move on Dantis in terms of prediction markets and whatnot, right? Still below Vance and uh Rubio, though, right? I I don't know whether would you do you believe uh Marco here I I I
believe he doesn't believe I believe that he believes in this moment that he may be doing that but 6 months from now you would definitely not bet your life on it would you? No I would not would you? I wouldn't bet my life on just about that bet anything right now. Cheese will be next. Coming up on Squawk Pod.
Ron Baron, the legendary investor and noted Elon Musk backer on his confidence in the world's richest man and why he isn't all that concerned about headlines. These are things I normally don't care about. I don't think about elections. I don't think about price of oil. Only thing about macro is inflation.
I think that everything you want to buy is going to double in price every 14 or 15 years. And investing in stocks, that's the way you can hedge against uh losing your buying power. We'll be right back. This is SquawkPod from CNBC. Stand Joe by in three, two, one. His mic Q. You're watching Squawkbox on CNBC.
I'm Joe Kernan along with Andrew Ross Sorcin among today's top stories. There he is. There I am. Uh, that's a pretty good twoot, isn't it? Huh? Mhm. Right. You proud? You good with that? I'm It's all good. It's great to see you. A big day for Ron Baron. The Baron Conference taking place today at Lincoln Center.
And ahead of that, we've got a special guest right here on set, the man himself, Ron Baron, founder and CEO and portfolio manager of Baron Capital. Ron has been uh a long back longtime backer of Elon Musk, of course, first becoming a shareholder of SpaceX in 2017. And we've got so much to talk about.
You just in 2014 and 2014 Tesla even even earlier. Um and you've got a big day. So, we're going to talk about the big day in just a moment, but help us uh understand how you're thinking about uh what's just happened both politically, but what's happened in the markets specifically as this relates to the Musk Empire.
Um well, there was election and the Republicans lost and a lot of Republicans who uh were elected have spoken negatively about about Musk. You mean Democrats who won? Democrats, right? And uh so the way I think about it to to just to to start with a little commercial uh that these are things I normally don't care about.
I don't think about elections. I don't think about uh price of oil. I don't think about only think about macro is as inflation. I think that everything you want to buy is going to double in price every 14 or 15 years. And investing in stocks that's the way you can hedge against uh losing your buying power which is going to fall in half every 14 or 15 years.
That's all I think about companies that can grow a lot and then trying to find companies that uh and and how have we done so basically uh we had I started the business in 1982 $10 million 100 million 1992 100 and so from the hund00 million we made 700 times our money 700 times our money in 34 years that happens to be 21.2% 2% a year.
Say, well, gee, you invested in that made 100 million turn into 70 billion. Uh, and so you say, well, you got Elon Musk. Well, without Elon Musk, instead of being 100 million to 700 million to 70 billion, it's 100 million to 40 billion. So, basically, that's a difference between making uh 21% a year and 19% a year.
So, the idea is, and the market is up 35 times that period of time, so 10% a year. So the idea is to just be long-term investing. Don't care about all these other things. As far as what's happened though in uh you know politically uh seems to me that what you're in so when the president wasn't the president I was friendly with him and uh and my politics weren't exactly the same as his uh but he has been responsible for reindustrializing for the impetus to re-industrialize our country.
And so it'd be a bad thing if we were in America relying on uh silicon, right? Only coming from uh from from Taiwan. And so here he's what he's probably the only person in this country uh who is able to build things at scale at attractive prices. Only one. So can you think of another name, another person who can build?
So here he's talking about building uh in uh you know terraab. You're talking about Elon now. Elon. Yes. Uh that happens to be a 100 million square foot building. 100 million square foot building. So he's building the 5 10 million square foot building. He's the only one who builds these things at scale.
And and uh when he does that, that's job creation, right? So he's creating hundreds of thousands of jobs and making not just making people more successful and giving them better lives, but hundreds of thousands of jobs, probably millions of jobs. He's the biggest job creator in the country. And you have people who are speaking against him and all he cares about is you know why does he work all these different hour crazy hours and sleep four or five hours a night.
But so how is you as an investor though how are you thinking about what the next two years look like because I think there is an expectation uh that Democrats are going to put a real spotlight on this company on his companies plural. Uh SpaceX of course uh has you know government contracts. Um there could be hearings.
You hear people talk about uh going back and looking at his role with Doge. I mean you you can go through the you can go through the list and what that does. By the way, one of the things that I even think about is Elon is one of the most focused people and by the way very good multitasker too. But hard to be a great multitasker if you have to live in Washington.
uh you know, attending hearings and prepping for those hearings at the same time you're managing these businesses and and what that does just just unto itself, let alone any any other kind of regulation or other thing that could happen. And whether this should even factor into your investment calculus at all,
no, doesn't factor. Okay. And the idea is that uh you go to a hearing, he doesn't have anything wrong. What why would there be a hearing? And because people want to make have the self on television. I don't you know it's Scott Galloway calls Elon Musk a traitor invokes Rosenberg executions. So do you just have is that just you can be the biggest horse's ass on the planet and still get get some
anyone can say anything they want. That's the benefit of this country and you can say whatever you want uh anytime. Uh doesn't mean it's accurate. It starts affecting things though. I think it and I think it's all these stupid people believe it and we got plenty of them in the country right now. Obviously
it doesn't matter. You got this brilliant guy once in a-lifetime person building these businesses that no one else can build. Feeling that uh we're going to have to take silicon and make it in this country. No one else is doing that. He's building figuring out there's not enough power here. Okay, let's sort of take the hearing piece away though.
the the it's a real concern though which I think is a meaningful concern but but it seems to be something that he either either doesn't think is a concern. I I would concerned I'm in denial too because we can't believe it. But my my different question then is you hear the governor of Texas for example talk about wanting to implement regulations around permitting for these data centers and the like.
You hear other uh blue state governors uh throughout the country by the way some red state governors as well and whether this is going to create a slowdown in terms of the ability to build and he is as you just described a builder. So can you predict this? I cannot. Can you predict this? No. So why bother?
Why bother? Why waste your time on that? Let's talk about the business. Okay. So, so here you have right now the talk about data centers and uh and data centers are critical to be able to use AI and if you don't have data centers you can't have AI. So Elon figures out what he does is he thinks about bottlenecks where is there a bottleneck to getting more more data centers and so that's one of them and it's more compute.
So what he did is that he said gee we have a number of companies that can create uh large language models uh and that's what they're doing and great and we're doing that too with grock in fact he's the one who started the whole thing right uh who started uh open AI and uh in the anthropic he comes from the person who worked at a open AI
uh so so you have that and then uh uh the what you need is compute and uh in order to accomplish that in order to comp to have data centers, you need compute. So he thought that compute was the was the barrier was the was a roadblock. So what he did is he said what we're going to do is we're going to build lots of compute more than anyone else and and so he did and as a result of that
shockingly I mean amazingly so fast and fast faster than just about anybody else. If you take other people, it takes them about two and a half years to build a data center for a for for a gig and it costs them 50 to$60 billion and they rent it out uh the the neoclouds they rent it out to hyperscalers and they get for it around 10 or 12 billion a year in rent cost them 60 get 10 or 12 billion a year in rent and they get long-term leases fiveyear leases because you can't borrow money unless you have a fiveyear lease.
What our guy does, he said he doesn't need to borrow money. And what he does is he goes out there and instead of spending $60 billion, we spend 35. Instead of taking two and a half years to build it, we did it. We were doing it in in four months, we're now doing probably in eight months. And when we do it in that time period, instead of renting something for 10 or 12 billion, what are we renting it for?
We're renting it for $50 billion. Right? to spending $ 35 billion and getting even more for it and and getting 50 billion a year for it right now. And so as a result of that, he's now getting from Anthropic who needs to have compute. Anthropic comes to him and we're a competitor with Grock and Anthropic comes and they say, "I'd like to rent your compute because I have all these orders for my business, but I don't have enough comput to to my place will be dark, right?" And so that he rents compute for him for 3.1 billion a month is what he's paying to Elon for using the compute until Elon needs it for Grock.
And as soon as they cancel these leases at some point they will then we're going to replace it with Grock. So So that's interesting. You your expectation is and I've thought about this because I've thought to myself Anthropic probably doesn't want to be paying these these these prices, but the other guys can't close it can't open uh data center
centers either. So there's going to be this complication. But you're you're arguing even if Anthropic ends these leases and ends up trying to use cheaper compute elsewhere to the extent they even can that then Elon's use Elon's using the same uh data centers for Grock and you believe that he's going to be able to make more margin.
He'll make the same. Okay. But he also needs it originally. He needs it for cars. Uh he needs it for uh you know for robots, right? Uh and uh and data center you need and rockets. He needs that. He needs that compute. He needs those that compute. So that's one thing. And the power that's something else.
So everyone else says he thought that was a roadblock. So what does he do? He says the roadblock in is power. You need turbines. What do you need for turbines? You need veins and you need blades. And so no one you're backlogged if you want to get veins and blades for three years. He goes out and he builds them.
But I don't know how long you can say. I just got to ask you one more thing. So Bernie Sanders says says you have to the security concerns of SpaceX are so paramount to this country that it can no longer be a a something not controlled by the government. There could be a Republicans may never win the Senate again based on the the what it looks like in 2028 and 2030.
The who's up in in which states. I don't know what happens to the house if there's a Democrat- elected president in 2028 and there's a move to nationalize or or even seize any of these u Elon Musk companies that that wouldn't factor into your investments. And and how about this? I worry about Elon security.
I people say stuff like this off the cuff that that he's like should be suffer the same fate as the Rosenbergs. Is he surrounded by people with with security? I mean, this is a dangerous world. I think Elon security is as good as the president, United States security. Okay, it better be. And I think that you know, when you ask me about two drivers, why do you think I have two drivers?
Because you're a fan of Elon. You're you're because I'm known and and uh you know, people are known or What about if if we do if all three branches of government are controlled by I don't care. Long. don't think something that could never happen with SpaceX. No, of course. You know, people ultimately will do what's best for them,
right? And what's best for our country is that we have a reindustrialization program going on, that we make silicon in this country, that we you know, you just blow Bernie Sanders off. Who cares about him? He's almost dead. Let me ask you a separate question, which is the last time we saw you, uh, we asked you about the prospect of a merger between SpaceX and Tesla,
right? And at the time uh you sort of demured because it had it hadn't been public yet that the company was thinking about this or at least publicly declaring so the company has now since said Elon said it uh that there are independent committees now thinking about this right I don't know if you want to speak more openly about your feelings about that and also by the way again I I know maybe politics is not supposed to come into this but from a regulatory perspective or something else whether
this new dynamic changes is the prospect of any kind of deal. I don't know. Again, you're talking about things that you can't predict. Yes. You can't or control, right? And or control. And when uh this first came became public and people were talking about it, uh I did uh speak to him. I wrote to him.
I gave him my reasons why I thought it was positive or why I thought it was negative. Uh and I said uh I wouldn't uh you know say publicly what my opinions were. And but whatever he decided he would do, I'm not running a company. He is uh and uh and I would support him whatever he wants. He says he wants to do it.
I mean that that was that is that piece of this is clear. That's what he would like to do. The question is whether the independent committees would like to do it or at what price they'd like to do it at. Whatever their decision is, I'm going to support them. And we're investors in SpaceX and in Tesla uh and a very significant portion of our invest of our assets are in both companies.
I think, you know, we've already made with him uh uh what' I say uh $30 billion. And I I think that over the next 10 years, I think we're going to make hundreds of billions of dollars. Hundreds. And you think you'd make that money whether they're together, apart, doesn't matter. Doesn't matter to me.
He's going to do what's best for the companies and for uh operating most efficiently. And uh and since you're thinking so long term about this, do you even care about a premium? Meaning would you say because this this this independent committee is going to sit there at Tesla and say do we need any premium?
Is the premium already built in? I don't I don't want to talk about it all. Okay. Um I I think the most important thing is we're going to build silicon in this country. We're going to build power. Do you know how much they build in China? By the way, we have 550 gigs in the United States. Do you know how much they have in China?
I don't. Three times that amount. Do you know how much they build in China a year? They build 300 gigs a year and we build 20. And so they're building huge power. They're way behind us in chips, but they're way ahead of us in power. We need more power. Elon's doing that. So Elon is is is adding power and we're going to use the sun.
We're going to do it from from space. And these, you know, more you talk about also for data centers on on the planet. What do you think's happening in space? We're going to be doing that. People are saying, "Well, it's going to be 10 years." It's not going to be 10 years. Uh uh Google has already uh launched a satellite to show that it works currently and Elon says we're going to be launching beginning in 2027 and 2028 we're going to have data centers in space.
Data centers in space. So all the problems you have on the planet, they're going to be gone because you're going to have them in space. So political is always an issue, but the you know the Republicans weren't in control. Do you genuinely believe and part of your thesis is that we will have data centers in space in 2028 in a meaningful way or just the first sort of test of it?
They will be huge in a year or two after that, but they will be significant in 2028. Significant. Okay. No, I only ask because people like Jeff Bezos have suggested that yes, we'll have data centers in space in the future, but I think his timeline is much longer. He had a 10 year, but of course all these guys have existing they talk their book, right?
Just like I talk my book. Okay. So what what and where do you the other thing I was going to say I don't know if you you saw this report just yesterday Elon saying that they're going to uh uh I think end production of of some of the cyber trucks so that he they can uh migrate that over to um robots to to no to the taxis
to the robo taxis um and and how quickly you think those really go online around the country they're going online rapidly right now uh and you know I can't tell you exactly when everything happens And so most people are focused as investors now. You know when you know how many did we add this week? How many did we add this month?
How many are being rolled off the production line now? It's everything's now. And the way you make the most money is by being able to say well who knows what's happening now. But the progress is you things are going in the right direction and sooner or later you get this uh this ramp up very sharply.
And if you're an investor at that point in time, uh, then that's what's going to happen. You're going to be the beneficiary of that. And when we were investors in Tesla originally, Tesla was going between $200 and $300 a share. Did it three or four times in a couple of years? And people said, "Gee, Ron, it's so obvious it's going to happen.
Why don't you sell it at 300 and buy it back at 200?" And I said, "Well, because once I do that, I'm probably going to miss it. I'm never going to know. I don't know. It goes up and down." And so because of that, uh, I didn't sell any and the stock went up 20 times. And then for clients, not for me personally, but for clients, we sold a quarter of our stock and then the stock doubled again.
And now it's up 40 times. And I think we're going to make five times again over the next 10 years. But if you have a long horizon, everything else feels like a blip. And it is a blip. And when you're investing in great company, this is the most remarkable investment I've made in my career. I'm 83. I've been doing this for 56 years.
Yeah. This is the most remarkable company I've ever seen in my life. It's the most remarkable period in the world that that we've ever been in. And you've seen you're you're getting up there. I'm getting up there. We've seen Well, you're not you're close to me. No, but we've seen um we've seen eventually,
but I'll be ready for you. You're an optimist. Eventually things play out and we end up doing the right thing in this country. Uh obviously, but I see I don't know whether that that lasts forever. I think sometimes people get to the end of their life and they look back at and they can't believe, you know, what what what they're leaving behind because it's so different than than when they started.
Did you sleep through Tuesday night? Things don't always I slept through it. Okay. Yeah. So, you're fine with that? You you think eventually things self-correct on both sides? The only thing I can control. Okay. So, it's about the businesses in which we invest to understand them as best we can. But but there could be impediment.
There could be self-inflicted impediments. Look at Europe. I don't think we're going to become Europe. Uh and I think that uh you know, when I was young, McGovern ran against Nixon. I remember and and uh and that was the death nail for the Democrats until Clinton came along and some middle run. So I think most of the country is middle
uh but you know they the the extremes seem to keep winning elections. I don't know. Um Ron, you've got a very big day ahead. Can you give us a preview? Who are you talking to today? Um I'm talking to Elon after lunch. Uh and then that's for an hour. Uh and then in the morning we have Faxet, we have Mona.
Uh we have uh Faxet Mona. We have Oh man. Uh uh who else? I don't know. We just had we just had Stefan on. He's excited about stuff to any all of the speakers uh uh who are uh going to FIGS is another one starting uh and so all the speakers uh are happily investors in SpaceX also right so all these executives have also invested in one of our SpaceX partnerships
uh Rahm we wish you a lot of luck today I know it's always a big day for you uh it is your Super Bowl and we appreciate you being with us this morning by the way there's also 6700 people coming Wow Over at Lincoln Center. Still to come on SquawkPod in this week's midterm elections, the polls and the prediction markets both signaled a shift in power in Congress.
That's an alignment these groups did not have just two years ago. Khi CEO Tar Mansour on what went right and what prediction market users and skeptics often get wrong about Kelshi itself. Trading in prediction markets is not an investment. It's a trade. And the same way that trading on oil futures or on options is not an investment, it's a trade.
The capital markets are about moving capital from people that have it, people that need it. That's not the the point of commodities and derivates are moving risk from places that have it but cannot bury to places that want to speculate. Welcome back to Squawk Pod. America is still digesting the midterm's results with some races still counting votes.
Call it a blue wave sweep or tsunami. The Democrats strong performance shocked many. But maybe the most shocking part, the polls done by professionals and the prediction markets, where betters can wager on what they think will happen, were right in predicting a winning night for the Democratic party.
A lot was on the line for prediction markets this election. Their credibility was front and center. Remember, back in 2024, pollsters weren't bullish on President Trump returning to power, while prediction markets, they got something right there. So, these two groups are aligned in 2026. What the heck does that mean?
This week, Kelshi CEO came to the Squawkbox set to break down the results. I guess I'll read this intro and then I'll I mean, because my personal anecdotes, I can tell you exactly what happened. When I look, Andrew, at my phone now, you know how it tells you where you spend? I think it was like most of the day was on something called Koshi.
Yeah. Uh and not just the the past week even leading up to it, but prediction markets were right on the money this election. Ky markets had a 98% accuracy rate uh as some people might say unfortunately. But as trading u volume exceeded $2.5 billion joining us now, TK Mansour, Kowi co-founder and CEO.
We should mention that uh CNBC has a commercial relationship with Kowi that includes customer acquisition and minority investment. And we're friends. You've been on before. And you walked in, you were scared of me because I said I'm I'm not I'm not going to shoot the message. I'm not going to kill you.
But um last week and leading up to the election, I kept saying either this is the end of the prediction markets uh or they're going to be completely right. And you were I mean I don't know about polls. I don't know how much polls go into the the final, you know, the way people bet or whatever it is, but everything you were very early on this and even your power index, which you were on, I think six months ago, showing which part is going to going to be in power that was favoring Republicans.
How long ago was that? Was that It was six months ago. And then it really You told me to watch that which I did. That totally flipped three months ago and then got worse and worse and worse leading into it. Andrew, the most incredible thing. Yeah. I'm going tell you one more thing as I build up uh TK was I I saw a person call and say the first thing Ari Flesher first thing that we're going to know is one county in Indiana um north of uh Indianapolis.
I think we'll know it's it will close at 6 p.m. and we will know right then what's happening and every single cow you bet the 601 is is when everything shifted and you could tell it was going to be a a blue tsunami. I knew at 601 it was going to be a blue tsunami so it worked. Congratulations. Thank you.
I don't know where to go from here. Uh now now we can go to you know be careful what you wish for. It worked. Democrats are now going to regulate the hell out of markets. May maybe if I can comment I mean the you know the we were so the markets were saying there's over 50% chance of a blue tsunami back in April
April right and and and you know this has been an interesting cycle for for us because you know I've been engaging with people in DC operatives the people that are sort of the experts like the people that have been in politics you know like wow I've been in politics for 10 years 20 years and and the consensus was like the markets are wrong like they they were just looking at the markets and they were saying how could the Democrats have such a high probability of taking in the Senate that there's no way and here's all the reasons and and and there was a bit of a sentiment well these people on the markets these people they don't they don't know they don't kind of they don't know anything how do they know there was a sentiment
right and you know to the point where I I even started doubting the markets like I don't know maybe maybe the I mean I was like maybe if you live with the polls you die with the polls if the polls were wrong you could have been wrong that's what I want to know about the polls I want to know whether you think somehow the polling has gotten materially better
maybe AI on the poll I don't think it's the you know it here here's way I put it. People have been asking me and and there were some debates on Twitter yesterday like do the prediction markets react to the polls, right? And to me for sure there's no question about it. It's like asking does this does Apple stock react to the quarterly earnings of Apple?
Like the markets are not creating information. They're weighing all the information that's out there. And but what's unique about the markets is that they're weighing information from a much broader set of people. It's not like we have okay, these are the four polls that we listen to and the four pundits that we listen to.
You listen to both of those, but you listen to pretty much millions of Americans are on top of it. But I guess the question is, the polls seem to be more accurate this time, too. And so, do you look and say to yourself that the pollsters have somehow figured out all of their mistakes that they made in the past?
Was this a one-off? Is there a technology or an approach that you see the pollsters taking that is creating better information that might be therefore creating some better uh feedback loops for people who are therefore trading, which of course then creates its own feedback loop. I mean that is an incredible point and one that I've made it a lot.
I think what's happening is like you know okay we we have a stock market. What the stock market does is it brings an incredible amount of rigor to figure out what's going to happen to the price of Apple or the price of Tesla. Why we have the quants we have Wall Street we have the analysts we have people now you have such a big incentive to go out and do research on the topic and then you know you can make money off of that research if you're right.
That's the same thing that's happening in politics right you're bringing an incredible amount of rigor like a financial markets level rigor to the process. So before that like okay if you do a poll and you're right some people pat you on the back and you know that that's sad but now if you do research on the topic you can actually make money you can actually make millions of dollars like some of our customers um and and you know if you're right that there's an incentive to go out and do all that so I think what's happening is you're going to have an e ecosystem buildout where the availability of data the quality of that data uh the polls uh you know how people think the analysts about the the political process and the markets uh are all going to be sort of this self-fulfilling flywheel that is going to make us smarter about this process, which is a good thing.
That's exactly what we want. The other thing I kept coming back to was, you know, when you can spend a half a billion dollars in Texas if you have money like that, I saw so many ads that they weren't working at all anywhere. And I said, why would you spend money on ads when you can throw some money at Kowi and and try and make it look a lot better for for a prospective candidate than it than it actually is?
I thought that would reverse itself because no one's going to sit there if they know that it's a fake that it's a fake. They're not going to just I I guess they could. Yeah. Could it How do you prevent that from happening or do you do you I mean I mean in some ways it's interesting. So So maybe I'll say two things like how do you prevent manipulation and like what is actually the broader implication like
yes people can try to manipulate markets right onions you know I don't know if you've been reading onion futures are banned because people manipulate the onion markets back in the day and the congress decided that the problem is onions not people. Yeah. people are going to try to manipulate any type of market and they do try to do it in prediction markets.
You know, in the me mayor race in LA, you know, people someone basically dumped I think close to two million a million and a half to million dollars to move the price from 25% to 40%. And they moved it. But guess how long that lasted? 9 seconds. So 9 seconds later, it went back to 25%. People that that are in the no say this is easy money.
It's easy money. It's like you're offering if you know Apple stock is worth $100 and somebody's offering it to you at $70, what are you going to do? So there's not it's like when it's like when the Treasury tries to tries to to to take the the 10 year and keep it at 490. We're going to move it to 480.
You move it to 480 for 9 seconds and then people know it shouldn't be there. The Treasury it didn't even have enough. But Scott Besson didn't have enough money to keep the 10ear where he wanted it. I I think the point with prediction marks is like yes, people can try to do it, but that $2 million would have been much better used if they commissioned some polls to say the candidate was going to win or or do some attack ads or give it to the campaigns.
So you can't really do it. I it's it's harder. And then also we we flagg it. Everything is transparent. So you immediately see it on the chart and then that is a crime. There's a financial crime if you actually try to do that. But the second thing I just want to make make a point about why these markets are so important.
They're a very good filter of information. Right. So so one example is in the Tal Rico race in Texas. I don't know if you you had heard about this rumor that he was in Ohio hospital where Yeah. I saw some crazy. I knew where I knew the hospital where it was at Middletown I So that thing went crazy on social media for a while.
Guess how much the prediction markets moved based on that 0%. And and that's the point is like when you have this level of rigor, when you have a market, it is going to be a very good way. Seeing a Democrat up in Texas, I said there's there must be of course it was Paxton then that that was the problem.
But but seeing that it's like something seems a miss. I I I was I didn't realize Michigan hasn't had a Democrat in 40 years or something like that. So that wasn't that crazy. But to me that looked crazy that and it all happened. It all came true. Let me ask you this. Now that the Democrats are going to have the House, they're going to have the Senate.
Um given the relationship that I think people perceive Cali as having through Don Jr. and whatnot, uh to this administration, what are you expecting in terms of the regulatory universe to look like over the next two years and maybe even beyond that? Yeah, I mean I think that it really goes back to we didn't got we didn't get set up like a year ago.
You know, we're a company that got started in 2018. Spent the first four years, three, four years getting regulated. You know, we got set up under the B administration. We've been around for a while and we've been always, you know, our our strategy has always been pro-regulation, regulatory first. You remember in 24 that's not what we were discussing.
Nobody was discussing Kashi's regulatory first approach. Actually, Kashi was the pretty uncool company in 24. If you remember, I remember the offshore, the people that you had here were not me. I mean it was it was poly market and and uh I was always L and I have always regulatory first do it the right thing.
We are pro free markets. I love these markets. They're giving everybody a voice and ability to get you know some stake in the in the in the in the outcome. But at the same time I'm pro regulation and that stensis has never changed and I always like to think that we're down the middle and the silent majority is down the middle.
They want sensible regulation. We want innovation in America. We want these new things. We want the right amount of guardrails and appropriate guardrails which I think Cali falls right in the middle. So we've been engaging on both sides of the aisle. various on both sides and we're going to continue to do this.
But do you think something changes the way the CFTC approaches this? Do they get some more commissioners? I mean, how does this what do you think happens here? Do you expect that you're going to be called for hearings? I I honestly don't know. And and and you know, if if I am I, you know, I'll obviously abide by whatever is happen.
But you ask me my personal view, I think there should be more commissioners for sure. I mean, I think that tug of war, that push and pull is the way to get the right answer. that you know one of the things that Rahm Emanuel was here I don't know if you saw the day before the election u or maybe the day of the election um and he said that he thinks that one of the things the Democrats should do first
is uh put together an an ethics bill uh for folks who are in the Senate in the House I believe he was suggesting even in the White House and elsewhere around uh stock trading but also prediction markets would you be in favor of that yeah I mean look I I've been very clear since the beginning of the year hopefully see like We we Kashi have always taken since 2018 a very strong stance against insider trading and and look there's a kind of a philosophical ethical piece for it to it but there's a very practical one which is my strong belief and I think you would agree with me free markets if you take the opposite of what free markets is
it's insider trading if if somebody has exclusive rights and privilege in a competition then the competition is fake it's not a real competition and that's why we've been so aggressive about policing insider trading no matter where it come comes from right like there was George Santos we punished there was a white house teleprompter there's You know, I mean the the point is I'm a very strong and I will say this in no uncertain terms, very strong rules around insider training, banning members of Congress, administration, anyone else to to from participating on things that they have control over.
And I also think that's you know over time like gonna become sort of like a by do you think that becomes a just a rule or that can be solved through technology which is to say that if you know that I am name your senator or congressperson uh and therefore I'm a quote unquote politically exposed person in the same way that certain brokerages will even sort of acknowledge that somebody is a politically exposed person that therefore you flag them the second they're registered on your site and effectively prevent them literally prevent them from even uh you know from pressing the button.
like does it become a technology like that or is it just a monitoring situation sort of as an after the fact and is that monitoring something where you should have the monitoring responsibility and liability or that that should rest with the CFTC in the same way that I think the SEC sort of oversees a lot of the stock trading.
Yeah, you perfectly describe our system. I mean, you know, there's like not much more to add here. I mean, but but like here's the way I sort of describe it. The rules right now on SEC and CFTC are postfact, right? After the trade happens, we have surveillance systems. We have our own. We also are partnered with NASDAQ.
We use the traditional systems that flag suspicious patterns and you enforce against them and that responsibility is joint. So, so exchanges and clearing houses like Khi that are regulated by the federal government are self-regulated organizations. So, you have an enforcement layer at the exchange level and then you have kind of collaboration with different uh federal agencies.
Um now what cash does above and beyond that above the what what's required of us is this proactive banning of members like you described. So we use a bunch of list like politically expose people's list and if somebody is a politician we ban them proactively from participating. One of the things that we think is sensible is for that to be law
right so that everybody else does the same thing does the same thing. Yeah. So right now is that true if you're a senator or let's say you're an NFL uh football player you literally would get blocked on uh on trading at all in that in that particular arena. That's right. if you will, which is stricter, by the way, than the stock market and and all these other places.
We've been more strict on this because it's a lot of what we're seeing unfold. Like, if people don't believe the system is fair, the market is fair, then there is no free markets. It it doesn't exist. And, you know, I'm a strong believer in free markets as hopefully you probably guessed by now. How's fundraising going?
How much you worth? What what's what's going to happen? Is it good? You you uh $40 billion makes sense to you right now? Well, I I mean certainly I mean I think you know if you look at our multiples and you compare it to public it's a it's a very healthy uh multiple. Obviously there's some you know regulatory risk that's sort of baked into it.
But I think that uh what's exciting about Cali I mean the the vision here is that you know one of the things I've been saying recently and I've been excited about is you know all financial markets are prediction markets. They're just you know you know oil futures are are prediction market on the price of oil and I think the opportunity for cash right now is getting into all these kind of traditional markets.
So, you know, crypto grew faster to us than than sports commodities is growing faster in crypto. And we just launched security uh perpetual security futures that are growing faster than anything we've seen so far. They're the fastest growing product from the first 48 hours that we're getting. Can I ask sort of a philosophical question?
Philosophical question about per example and and basically the broader trading is whether this is good for society. Yeah. Bad for society. uh the idea that you can trade I get the idea that trading at all hours in some ways creates a sort of a a better market if you will and you can also offer suggest the signal that comes off of these trades is valuable in terms of market information but I wonder whether you think that this is as as I said it's good is it good for society is it bad for society and is it an investment or is it um a speculation
yeah uh going to give you have to give me like a minute on this one but it's look unequivocally Yes, like there's no no question in my mind. More markets is a good thing. Markets are a propeller of economic prosperity and better decision-m over time. Now, one of the things that people miss is trading in prediction markets is not an investment, it's a trade.
And the same way that trading on oil futures or options is not an investment, it's a trade. The capital markets are about moving capital from people that have it, people that need it. That's not the the point of commodities and derivatives markets. the rivers markets are moving risk from places that have it but cannot bury it to places that want to speculate.
They want to take it on. So the way to answer this question is is is is very simple. You know um there was a court opinion uh that go went something like that. This type of market activity is cont policy. Not only is it contrary of public policy, it's a crime. Crime against humanity, crime against the state, crimes against the welfare.
This species of gambling is the pre-minent sin. That court opinion is from the Illinois Supreme Court from 1888 about grain futures. That's what society perceived grain features to be a a gambling that is national sin. And now let's think about it. Let's let's assume we had banned grain futures back in the day.
What would have happened? Like why are grain futures so important? The price discovery. They help farmers predict what the price is going to be in six months so they can figure out how much to plant today and then they allow them to off. I get the utility of that of the grain piece. I don't necessarily get the utility of betting on uh Bad Bunny's song at at the the Super Bowl.
And I think that the maybe different question that I should sort of add into the the layer is what happens in a crisis. Meaning, we were talking the other day um about PERS, this 24-hour per idea. You know, back in 2008, uh anytime we've had a bank run of any sort, uh they've often tried to fix these things during weekends.
Why can they fix them during weekends? Because the stock market's not open. And you you you can actually you have time to breathe. Um and in a world where you don't have time to breathe, how do you actually solve some of these things? Do you put some kind of breakers on the the trading? I don't I don't know.
Can like let me just the two questions. I know there's a lot there. So I mean the first question is like look people always like to find the one or two markets that seem a little bit more like less economically useful or other. I mean people say where is still swift going to get married? I mean I have a partnership with MSG.
The partnership value went up 3x because she decided to get married there. It's incredible. But the point what we are trying to come and say is like the set of things that have economic value is much broader today. Sports has economic value. The inflation has economic value. The elections have economic value and you're going to bring it to much broader set of things so we can make better decision allocate risk better.
And yes certainly a lot of people are speculating but that's what happens in all markets. Like that's never been the line. Now the per question is very interesting. Um I would argue so so per futures. They're no different. The incomes don't like them because you know they like to make rollover fees over the the futures.
uh and that's why they go after the pers but they're just a consumer an additional consumer choice they're the same amount of risk same method and same amount of leverage um the weekend question we're not pushing for new hours this is a conversation that's being happening with the NASDAQ and NYone else and we'll follow it but we're not the ones pushing on the hours piece
the the one thing I'll say is like right now most of this market is forming offshore which is why like the very thing that do Frank came and did which is like bring all this activity into a regulated central clearing house which is what calcium approach been I worry about all the sports books. I I don't when when you think about just Well, we got to go.
But well, let's talk about that that next time. I worry about it because I I it just seems like this might be a way where, you know, the casino always finds a way to stay profitable. You have you don't have a stake in this. It's you match up buyer. It's a market, right? There's abundant data that's showing that we we are not cannibalizing them, including all of them.
They're saying I mean, and it's true. And you can get out of a bet on a market. You can't get out of a bet on a on get a big haircut. A lot of our customers are the people that like are the the the multiple monitors people, the the people that are modeling and doing all the smart stuff and and those people would never be allowed on a sports book because that's not the point.
Sports book is an entertainment product. This is a just for betting on sports. Do I need to go get out of draft? I don't know. I worry. Uh we'll talk off camera. Um Oh, we got to go. We got to go. We got uh Oh, we do have We have some time left though now. We got to go. Thank you, Ter. Thanks so much.
Thank you. That is Squawk Pod for today. We made it to the weekend. All of us. Take a break. We deserve it. Squawkbox is hosted by Joe Cernin, Becky Quick, and Andrew Ross Sorcin. Tune in weekday mornings on CNBC starting at 6 Eastern. To get the smartest takes and analysis from our TV show right into your ears, please follow SquawkPod wherever you get your podcasts. We'll meet you right back here on Monday. We are clear. Thanks guys.
댓글 0