저자: Kevin · 외국인
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FTX 파산 배상 소식(원금+이자 118% 지급 예정)과 크립토 규제 환경 기대를 전함. 스토미 다니엘스 증언과 트럼프 형사재판 쟁점 정리. 중고차 가격 하락(맨하임 지수 전년比 -14%), 자동차·카드 연체율 상승 등 경기 불안 신호를 짚으며 기업 실적콜은 대체로 긍정적이라고 언급. 이스라엘-가자 휴전 불확실성과 이민 이슈를 중립적으로 다룸.
다듬은 글
a used car crash delinquencies arising and an economy that's supposedly good in this video not only will we cover the economy but we'll also catch you up with a little bit of clarity in what we talked about yesterday with Muslim immigration and what's going on with Gaza and Israel some premature celebrating that actually happened unfortunately in the Gaza Strip and why we'll touch on some of the latest earnings and we'll also touch on Donald Trump and the full load of information we got from stormmy Daniels yesterday as well as that jail threat but first we've got to start with FTX remember FTX the crypto broker dealer that ended up being a massive fraud thanks to the most honest man in the world not being so honest well this most honest man in the world almost caught Taylor Swift for quite frankly concert tours with a lush and beautiful sponsorship package which Taylor Swift had already signed Taylor Swift never ended up pitching FTX though because s bankman freed delayed signing his portion potentially playing too many video games for about 30 to 60 days that's at least what we're hearing from reports and then the company went bankrupt the most generous man in in the world looped in Tom Brady Kevin o stadiums referees you name it and now the company is actually expected to pay back more than it owes to folks now there's some remarkable detail to this but let's start with knowing that usually when a company goes bankrupt this might be what you have in the company and what you get back is usually Pennies on the dollar so let's say you had a stable coin at a company like uh Voyager digital you might just get a fraction of your money back maybe 5% of your money back if you're lucky as a lot of the money that's available goes into legal fees and defaults it sucks well in the case of FTX because of the rise in crypto valuations FTX per Bloomberg is expected to pay back 118% of the original amount of that people had stuck on the platform when the company went BK now I remember in the weeks leading up to the FTX collapse we made videos on the channel here encouraging people to get out of the platform that the risk was not worth staying on the platform well fortunately now even though that company did collapse the company is able to pay back 100% of principal plus interest now of course some of the tokens had they been held through the crypto crash that is from when the collapse occurred through the rest of the crypto crash that occurred and then all the way to today would be worth more if you had the actual token back remember FTX is just paying back in cash but it sure beats investing in a company or depositing money in a company and only getting a fraction to 0 back I personally invested in blockfi invested about $420,000 well $ 42069 I believe was we what we invested $420,900 Let's uh consider for a moment yes if somebody held through the rest of the crash they'd have more money in the actual underlying tokens than the cash they're getting back but the reality is it's so rare to get any money back in a bankruptcy this is really great news people are not only expected to get their principal back they're also expected to get interest back great news and it's really the end of an era for the crypto collapse it gets the FB uh spfs out of the world it gets CZ on a straight and narrow path he's only spending four months in jail anyway so frankly maybe now we can get to a regulated environment and get BTC and other crypto projects on the straight and narrow path to success which is very exciting and I'm optimistic about the future now with that let's hit don t so in case you haven't heard oh boy oh boy Donald Trump uh well we had a long story from Stormy Daniels yesterday about what Donald Trump has been up to apparently Stormy Daniels began her career as an exotic dancer danced for strip clubs at the age of 17 in Louisiana and first met Trump at a golf tournament where she invited uh uh Donald Trump or I'm sorry where she was invited by one of Donald Trump's apparently bodyguards this is her point of view uh to dinner to which originally she said f no but then at some point after giving Trump a copy of one of the adult films that she wrote directed and starred in when she was 27 she ended up having sex with Donald Trump now during the relationship that the two had apparently at one point Donald Trump suggested that she could prove that she's not just a dumb bimbo that she's smarter than people think that she's smart blonde and beautiful and she could shake things up and get a lot of attention by going on The Apprentice she suggested she's not a bus business person and there's no way she could win so why would she to which Donald Trump allegedly said what if I tell you what the challenges are I have control maybe I can give you an edge so at least you can make a good showing that was a bit surprising to me because I grew up with watching the original Apprentice which I really enjoyed and it somewhat breaks my heart to think that it was rigged but then again that's reality TV for you now Stormy Daniels went into testimony on what happened in 2006 in that hotel room she suggested that Donald Trump was arrogant would try to one up her and stealed a conversation and it wasn't until she threatened to swat him with a paddle that he started becoming more polite in fact at one point when she was invited to Trump's hotel room he was wearing silk style pajamas which she asked if Donald Trump was aware that well I should say does the quote was does Mr Hefner as in Hugh Hefner know you stole his pajamas Donald Trump apparently then changed and they ended up having a sexual relationship apparently this began as Stormy Daniels remembers with her bra on her clothes and shoes off and we were in the missionary position to which of course the judge and the defense quickly objected and sustained the motion and ended the detail of what was going on or at least what Stormy Daniels recalls now remember it's really important that Stormy Daniels establish at least some level of detail because Stormy Daniels needs to prove that she actually had sex with Donald Trump the mission of the defense which tried to declare a mistrial when this sort of detail was revealed which didn't work now but might work in appeal a good setup for an appeal in the future or should Donald Trump lose but what you have to think is the defense needs to make stormmy Daniels seem noncredible like she's vengeful out for hate she was a poor person needed money took the money by extorting Donald Trump and therefore you've got a defense that beats her up by asking in crossx do you hate president Trump and Stormy Daniels response yes do you want want him to go to jail Stormy Daniels replies I want him to be held accountable they're trying to discredit her this is a very common defense strategy in court is basically discredit the people that are making the defense look weak and obviously the Star testimony here is from Stormy Daniels as allegedly she had sex with Donald Trump which Donald Trump then paid to cover up now Donald Trump and the defense take the position I that we did pay to cover it up but it was a fake story therefore no crime was ever committed and I shouldn't be in this courtroom at all anyway and therefore the gag orders against me are illegal and I will continue to exercise My First Amendment right to free speech which of course after 10 violations worth $10,000 in fines in total the judge has decided look keep this up you might have to go to jail Donald Trump responded to this with if that's what it takes to defend the consti then I'm ready for my night in jail his actual quote was our constitution is much more important than jail it's not even close I'll give that sacrifice any day we know that Donald Trump is really into branding so that's what we got uh now that uh probably would lead to some political donations as well if that ended up happening so probably wouldn't be uh the uh the the worst thing that would happen to Donald Trump but anyway uh the point here is that while we end up getting more a testimony in future Court hearings it's worth noting that there's a lot of attention going into Donald Trump's hush money case and the insights gleaned from Stormy Daniels were certainly salacious but they don't rise to the evidence probably needed to say that what happened was indeed 100% fact obviously there are no screenshots descriptions of unique bodily featur or defects in certain area on Donald Trump at least from what we've heard and so there are limited ways to say that her story could be 100% credible and probably it's going to be challenging to argue that a jury should believe everything Stormy Daniels said at least to a level of Beyond Reasonable Doubt which is the highest burden of proof in a criminal trial remember this is not a civil trial where you just have the burden of the preponderance of the evidence this is a criminal fraud trial now of course it is for a class E felony which is the lowest form of a felony but the burden of proof is beyond a reasonable doubt so the jury needs to be convinced that Beyond A Reasonable Doubt stormmy Daniels had sex with Donald Trump and Donald Trump then paid to cover it up by misallocating business and campaign funding and disclosures and lying about it after the fact all of these multiple different elements a problem if Stormy Daniels did actually have sex with Donald Trump pretty wild with that let's go into the used car crash as auto insurance rates are skyrocketing to the highest levels since the 70s the heaviest keep in mind this contributing to the heaviest impact in our core CPI readings the latest Manheim used vehicle index is down 14% from a year ago so another words everyone who owns a car is seeing the value of their car collapse you see that on screen here uh this is a chart of that used vehicle index collapsing here uh on the right down a substantial amount uh it's worth noting where the declines from a year ago are luxury car is down only 12.9% % electric vehicles holding their uh values relatively the worst down 17.5% compact cars down 176 midsize down 168 and Pickups only down 15.2 this all comes this sort of frustration in the economy as a result of assets that almost all of us own like used cars uh and things becoming more expensive around us like food and groceries and insurances we're being told the economy is doing just fine as long as you ignore things like the transition into delinquency by loan type you can see here the 30-day delinquency on credit cards is substantially higher than what we've seen quite frankly since about 2006 student loan delinquencies still at Rock Bottom as some of those payments just are essentially deferred in perpetuity but autol loan delinquencies rising to the high highest levels that we've seen uh in since about 2010 keep in mind the credit card delinquencies I should mention highest level since about 2006 excluding the Great Recession obviously if you include the Great Recession you're the highest level since about 2011 and you're now even starting to see those mortgage delinquencies start Rising soon to be above pre-pandemic levels something else to keep in mind is the 5-year break even has a slid to 2.3 32% and we're now pricing in 1.69 rate cuts for the year after Apple's discounting in China shipments are up 12% following those March discounts and Uber took a surprising loss this morning due to investments in other companies write downs and a lot of legal fees as well as some less than uh expected ridership uh or uh well yeah I mean frankly uh an overall decline in ridership in an area like Latin America so coming out of nowhere here with a uh a decline in ridership though the rest of uh the world and North America much like Lyft actually doing quite well you did have uh companies here provide some insight yesterday skipping past just their earnings I wanted to go into their earnings call and just see what some of these companies are saying about the economy and I know a lot of consumers don't feel this way because things just feel expensive and wrong at the moment but a lot of these companies at least for themselves are still guiding positivity look at toast for example we don't see a reason why the second quarter would be different for demand strong bullish the consumer is still cranking no material changes if anything we're on the path to finally getting out of a loss and being Break Even Gap break even by the end of the year Lyft sees a continuation of trend scene at the end of 2023 with lower prices actually which is somewhat deflationary which is great in fact they actually say we don't say this externally but we want to lower prices we want there to be a better balance between drivers and demand and we continue to see strong demand while Disney also saw higher spend per person at places like Disneyland uh they did see a uh uh and and they currently do still see healthy demand I got to add a y there uh they are seeing a moderation from postco travel and they're seeing higher cost inflation as well so little bit of a mixed bag over at Disney they did also miss on some of their subscriber numbers yesterday wi has noticed that demand has been relatively healthy throughout April with the sphere remember that big circle sphere they now have in Vegas driving a lot of visitation to Vegas and they repriced their hotel rooms daily which I thought was quite interesting to make sure they could squeeze every last penny out of any anybody visiting the Wind Resort but then again probably most of the hotels do that uh and uh the wi and Encore being some of the more uh luxurious options on the Strip uh then we've got Gaza and Muslim immigration I'd like to just be very very clear here in yesterday's meet Kevin report uh we talked about Muslim immigration and we got a lot of commentary on how Muslim immigration and for example than United Kingdom is potentially deluding UK values now I reported from a neutral point of view I analyzed a city that was trending on social media and noticed a nominal change in really the makeup of uh that District within Bradford of the United Kingdom uh over the last 20 years but commentary was very clearly on one side of the discussion here many refer to immigration expanding for Muslims into the the United Kingdom not just in the last 20 25 year period but really from the 1950s 7s 80s all the way to today which has led to a substantial increase in the Muslim population in parts of the United Kingdom and Europe which many people are frustrated by this is of course just an observation from commentary it's just my goal to be here and provide neutral perspective and when popular opinion is on another side I'll mention it that that's not going to dictate what what the neutral uh analysis is but from a neutral point of view we can clearly say immigration is a top priority for many voters and ensuring their voices are heard is very important but it makes sense because the same frustration is the frustration that you're seeing with Asylum uh grantees like uh syrians in Germany uh Muslims in the United Kingdom uh immigrants who were coming through the uh Southern Border in the United States maybe even the northern border eh okay mostly the southern border whether they're Chinese immigrants or they're from Venezuela or wherever they're from there is a lot of frustration around the Border crisis and it's about High Time countries start listening to their voters similarly I received multiple messages yesterday suggesting that Israel's deepening incursion into uh quite frankly the Gaza Strip and the Rafa Crossing which was supposed to be a Biden red line which has now been crossed is solely to quote go to the end of the Earth to find the remaining roughly 130 hostages still alive if my family member were a hostage I'd completely understand I hope the situation ends rapidly so both the hostages can be freed and death can end in general war is Terror killings and death are bad they're wrong no matter what and it sucks it just sucks the human Devastation that's happening in Gaza is horrid I'm not pointing any blame we're simply making a statement that war and Devastation is terrible and I wish it ends as soon as possible so do Gins Gins were celebrating after hamas's acceptance of the Israeli deal uh which was announced uh just a couple about a day and a half ago uh and then unfortunately tanks rolled in as Israel suggested the deal was different from what Israel had proposed and now the ceasefire is quite frankly unclear and unresolved so unfortunately the crisis for now in the Gaza Strip continues and Egypt continues to build its shelters now keep in mind I'm a big fan of providing as much neutral perspective as I can this is the second meet Kevin report that we're doing I hope you enjoy this style of reporting where we can cover multiple different important topics all in one if you have any comments suggestions please let me know what your thoughts are in the comments down below make sure to read all of them really appreciate it and we'll see you in the next one thank you so much goodbye and good luck
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