저자: Kevin · 외국인
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트럼프 형사 리스크와 선거 여론, 영국 이슬람 지역 이민 논란, 가자 전쟁 및 휴전 협상, 애플 AI 전략과 실적 관점, 미국 기술주 실적(팔란티어 해외 둔화) 및 거시 인플레이션·금리 인하 전망을 다룬 시사·경제 리포트. 결론적으로 팔란티어는 해외 둔화에도 저가 매수 기회로 긍정적, 미국 우위 기조 유지 전망.
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Donald Trump in jail pool movements Rafa rated an Islamic Takeover in the United Kingdom pounder earnings war on the young economic data on recession or not and more let's cover it all in today's meet Kevin report first let's talk about what's going on in the United Kingdom because a lot of people are freaking out over wait a minute is this the United Kingdom a lot of people are circulating images and a video of an Islamic victory in the United Kingdom especially in this District of Manningham which is a district within Bradford Bradford is about the 10th largest city inside uh the United Kingdom and Manningham is a particular District of it and so there are some folks who are circulating this essentially implying that illegal immigration is now contributing to the Islamic takeover of what maybe previously were not Islamic areas uh and so this is circulating to add fuel to the fire of really just the immigration debate so what I wanted to try to find out is what is Manningham and what was the population of Manningham before this takeover so to speak because I usually like to let facts and data speak for me so take a look at this Manningham in the United Kingdom this is the election they won a district seat with 77% of the vote going to Muhammad now that represented a total of about 4,100 votes so really small in fact in uh Manningham itself has just a population of 20,5 45 which is just a fraction just 6% of Bradford but see when we look at tweets like this people suggest a district uh within Bradford the United Kingdom which is true but the lead is Bradford which suggests wait a minute must be large but it's really actually just a tiny District of Bradford and what I found was that 59.5% of those in Manningham were actually born in the United Kingdom and that area is 82.7% Muslim and so again you have this suggestion that maybe dark times are ahead because of immigration transforming the United Kingdom but really what they're doing uh through these tweets is they're they're trying to imply through our biases that wait a minute you know the United Kingdom should be white why all of a sudden is it being taken over by uh Muslim individuals when the reality is nothing's actually changed over the last 20 years in fact the population of Manningham over the last 20 years has moved up by about 3,600 so you have this tiny movement in the population of Manningham basically it hasn't grown I bet maybe 16% over the last 20 years and now all of a sudden there's this suggestion that hey immigration is destroying the United Kingdom but the reality is the labor party yes has lost some seats due to uh lack of sympathy for what's happening in Gaza and so we are seeing more Muslim candidates start winning votes in local elections but at least according to writer over the w Journal most of the issues in the United Kingdom are decided at a national level and local elections have much less power than they do in the United States they do affect law enforcement but again a lot of these seats are being won in areas that kind of always have been relatively Muslim Centric so I I don't know if it's exactly fair to circulate images like this and say hey immigration is destroying the country now that's not to say that immigration fears don't exist I mean consider for example the anti- Muslim fears that are going on in Germany Germans now apparently are fearing quote becoming the minority uh I do personally hear this from Germans as well when I visit Germany so this is not something that I only see reported on the internet I also hear this in person so this is a real fear that people have uh Yung fright newspaper suggests that uh through a poll they conducted 57% believe that in certain areas of my city or Village I have a feeling that I am no longer in Germany and 54% are quote afraid that Germans would become a minority in Germany uh now what's interesting is the IFD the alternative for deuts alternative for Germany political party was gaining a lot of popularity on anti-immigration in 2023 but they actually lost a lot of their lead after Nationwide protests when the AF day was accused of attending remigration meetings to basically send migrants back to their countries uh you can actually see that here this is the blue line is uh the sort of voting share of the ifda in Germany you can see it's sort of ticked down here uh in 2024 as as some of those topics have come to light and people are starting to think a little bit okay well maybe maybe some of the anti-immigration fear has gone a little too far but what what is also concerning is that yeah a lot regarding protests around Gaza and uh really the frustration with the killing of innocent children men and women who were uninvolved with Hamas is spreading around the world uh for example Colombia University just cancelled their main commencement ceremony The Wall Street Journal just put out a document uh basically showcasing that there are most mostly left leaning groups and longtime activists that have been helping plan and train college students for months on how to conduct more organized demonstrations one of the groups possibly involved could be the national students of Justice in Palestine which they've been around for about 20 years 300 chapters there's talk about Google Drive circulating about how to resist them how to resist the police set up encampments how to how to demonstrate or protest or get the most media involved because remember the idea of any good protest is that you cause the cancellation of events so it's not a surprise a lot of these protests are happening right around uh commencement uh events and ultimately praza protesters come from this angle of hey we need to force resistance in America because really what you're doing is by forcing resistance in America you're show knowing that there's nothing wrong with actually being a member of Hamas and instead by being a member of Hamas you're really just somebody who is on the front lines defending the Palestinian people after all over 34,700 individuals have been killed in the Gaza Strip and West Bank since October 7th which was the retaliation by Israel for about 1,400 deaths in Israel on October 7th 2023 after the Hamas attack in Israel so obviously you've got a very very dramatic situation going on with anti- uh killings in Gaza protests which totally makes sense but at some point those protests do rise to the level of committing a lot of crime in the United States via let's say graffitiing uh police vehicles uh like this one in New York or right outside the protests of the Met Gala or leading to the Met Gala you had statues historic uh statues being graffitied as well as UCLA was graffitied or otherwise now it's important to remember that a lot of folks get very frustrated when somebody complains about graffiti being a crime but it's very important to remember that this doesn't mean that Wars deaths or other crimes are not crimes I wrote this out on purpose because there's a lot of emotion that goes into this and rightfully so a lot of people are dying and a lot of innocent people are dying but let's be clear this is not a mutually exclusive statement and arguing otherwise I wrote is a logical fallacy causing property damage in America is well beyond the First Amendment right to free speech and protest unfortunately some suggest that calling graffiti a crime like vandalizing is a crime but therefore the murder of children in Gaza must not be a crime that is an logical statement so we have to sort of at least in talking and addressing the issues remember that when we make a logical statements what we really do is sew hate Division and frustration so yes it is true that the murder of innocent people can be a crime but at the same time as the murder of innocent people can be a crime so can vandalism now do keep in mind that in let's say you see now obviously keep in mind if there is a crime committed on a UCLA campus we would expect that crime to go punished things do get more blurry in a war torn region but that doesn't make it okay to see innocent people killed this is obviously problematic and it's one of the reasons the United States has now delayed weapons being D essentially sold to Israel the Biden administration had a deal to sell about 6,500 they're called tail kits for $260 million to Israel now these are really interesting these are called jdam uh tail kits basically what you're doing is you're taking dumb bombs which are bombs you just sort of lob or drop onto a Target and you retrofit them with a tail kit to make them smart bombs which are laser and GPS guided so they can better attack their targets now you'd think that better targeting would be a good thing as opposed to using and just dumb bombs but the reality is the Biden Administration has been skirting some of the notification requirements to let Congress know exactly what kind of arm sales are actually going on to Israel some other deals currently in the works $700 million for 120 mimet rounds for tanks 500 million ve dollars for tactical Vehicles $100 million in Mortar rounds remember the United States provides the most mil milary Aid to Israel out of anyone in the world Boeing manufactures these particular jdam kits uh and uh the United States has pressured Israel not to go into Rafa as Israel is despite all of this now going into Rafa the Biden Administration is trying to pull back uh some of that potential funding uh and Aid now there also ceasefire talks right now Monday night uh strikes against Hamas targets did take place though in Rafa right after these last minute ceasefire deals were beginning to come together at least per Hamas Al jazer reported that there was a three-phase deal of temporary s cessation in hostilities a withdrawal of Israeli forces to the east so the less populated regions of Israel sorry not of Israel of the Gaza Strip move Israeli troops towards those less populated regions get captives were starting to be released stop Flying Israeli war planes over Gaza for 10 to 12 hours a day more as more hostages are released phase two end hostilities permanently completely withdraw the IDF and phase three the 3 to 5 year reconstruction of the Gaza Strip which as we've already seen on social media Black Rock and some Architects and real estate firms are already drawing up beachfront mansions for which very uncens sensitive right now especially given the pain and suffering happening in the Gaza Strip and West Banks now note the Israeli media is suggesting that hamas's support for the deal is just a ruse for the deal to suggest Israel is not accepting the deal when the reality Israel says is no no no no that's not the deal we came up with so you've still got some challenges going on especially given that now you have Israel rolling into uh the Rafa Crossing and taking control of the Israeli side of that Crossing into Egypt uh it doesn't help that there are images circulating of this Israeli tank running over essentially the welcome to Gaza sign and crushing it uh and running over the Palestinian flags and then Palestinian flags at the border being replaced by Israeli flags that probably doesn't help attentions and hate it probably also doesn't help that Egypt is setting up a 100,000 massively walled compound just for refugees and this is an example of what refugee camps look like this is not a pleasant living it is obviously better to live in this situation than to live under the threat of aerial bombardment and then seeing your family gets destroyed and torn apart uh because Hamas might be hiding amongst you but this this is clearly clearly a human travesty and ultimately people living in tent cities uh in uh in in you know in Egypt or in southern uh Gaza is not sustainable now moving on from what's happening in Israel and the Gaza Strip obviously we I certainly hope that the ceasefire deal uh can be held maintained it's worth talking briefly about Apple Apple waren Buffett sold some apple and a lot of folks are freaking out that maybe that's a sign that the good days for Apple are officially over well Apple did have a rough q1 and while we have the iPad event happening today for Apple so stay tuned for some really cool announcements uh Warren Buffett suggests that he sold a 133% stake in Apple for tax reasons to offset some of the other gains that they had and they still expect Apple to be the largest holding for Brookshire hathway by the end of 2024 I also personally still anticipate that Apple will release their own product refresh cycle with enhanced AI Focus chips yet some of this obviously will be branding of course I hope they also provide a lot of AI functionality and value especially with that chatbot that I won't mention so it doesn't appear uh and turn on on all of your Apple devices right now isn't that right okay Google oh I shouldn't have done that I'm sorry okay anyway so uh Apple's uh chip Center is um called apple chips in data centers this is apparently a secret initiative that has been going on for a couple years now and this is a partnership of apple with TSM to manufacture their own uh data center chips to run AI keep in mind that Apple has been using neural net style chips M series chips since 2017 so they already kind of have ai chips but they just don't have ai chips running on your Dev device chatbots yet or other useful AI tools that we're already using on sort of a daily basis that we're relying on servers to send our information to like sending our information to GPT just to get it back that obviously creates some data privacy concerns that Apple might be able to capitalize on personally I'm still pretty bullish Apple after I heard about the on device AI that they've been planning in uh some uh p papers they released about a month ago broke those down over on ec.com now let's talk Trump versus Biden Trump versus Biden the biggest issues always seem to come down to the Battleground States Arizona Georgia Michigan Nevada Pennsylvania Wisconsin in general election polls the last two general election polls that we saw Saturday May 4th May the 4th be with you and Cinco de Mayo actually showed Biden in the lead you had Biden in the lead by one point in the ABC epos poll and then the tip poll you had Biden in the lead by two but I found that really interesting because when you jumped over to what was going on in Battleground States look at the Battleground States Donald Trump smashing Joe Biden in every single one of those States on top of that I thought it was very interesting that the financial times even though suggesting Donald Trump had a 8% lead created a survey to find out what people thought about what caused inflation and I personally thought this was an obvious one covid policies to a rapid expansion of money Printing and therefore well essentially inducing a substantial amount of delay demand while at the same time shutting down factories due to covid so you're reducing Supply while increasing the capacity for people to demand products and services I thought Co was very obvious as the greatest reason for inflation but apparently wasn't Co was actually only here at about 35ish per of the reason that people gave it's actually about 58% of the reason that people gave being greed flation now I was really surprised by that greed flation being a driver in my opinion really shows a little quite a bit of a fundamental misunderstanding of Economics greed inflation is really only possible when the consumer's willingness to pay increases to the point that business businesses feel they can raise prices and not lose business solely and so one Corporation Being Greedy will be destroyed by competition see in my opinion greed flation is only possible when companies raise prices without an increase in the consumer's willingness to pay so in other words if you're willing to pay $0 for this coffee mug but the corporation says screw you $11 $12 $13 that would be greed flation but if my willingness to pay goes up because I have more money and I'm willing to now pay $15 for this mug and a corporation goes okay $11 $12 and nobody's demanding this product less then what you have is not greed inflation what you have is inflation because everyone's prices are going up in other words your dollar L lost purchasing power that's driven by government government spending and fiscal money printing so to speak one Corporation becoming greedy will generally be destroyed by competition all Starbucks in China y'all need to wake up Starbucks in China even Howard Schultz had a message to the board of Starbucks and said look the brand is the foundation of Starbucks and Starbucks is an inflection point and if you really want to know what's going on put a freaking apron on and get in the stores you want to know why you missed earnings get on the ground level find out are people happy are people willing to pay the prices that you're charging for your premium brand or do you need to maybe recognize he got competition in China it was a good piece by Howard Schultz he wasn't exactly that blunt but that's basically what he meant so really surprised there on Greed flation have to say anyway uh Donald Trump a little bit more on Trump Donald Trump was threatened with jail time for the hush money gag order violations apparently he's violated the judicially imposed gag order 10 times now I know a lot of trump supporters say hey but you know this is an illegal uh you know imposition against him anyway and a lot of Biden supporters say no they're just enforcing the law we we don't really need to get into that what we need to recognize this he's been sanctioned 10 times 1,000 bucks for each violation it's the maximum penalty allowed and of course now that the judge is rising this to a level of suggesting look the next step is jail time I thought to myself that probably honestly just be perfect for the Trump campaign because of the amount of political donations they would get if Donald Trump spent a night in jail wild time we live in I recognize that sending a former president to jail would seem like incredibly remarkable but again it would be great for Donald Trump's donations and Donald Trump I believe knows this and this is why he's already started to Brand the potential of him spending a night in jail he's sort of free running that's right they might throw me in jail why why would he be willing to spend a night in jail quote our constitution is much more important than jail it's not even close I'll give that sacrifice any day talk about a master of marketing you have to give him credit where that credit is due he basically he's basically walking himself into jail but then branding it as defending the Constitution I mean I get it he's defending his First Amendment right to free speech which does violate court rules but then again his argument is that he shouldn't be in court in the first place does that make it right that is up to you but what is not up to us is what Vladimir Putin does with his nuclear drills Putin has ordered his military to rehearse tactical nuclear weapon usage in combat this is in response to Emmanuel macron suggesting that Europe could die this was part of an April 28 speech where he suggested that nuclear weapons should be part of the European Defense debate now mcon also hosted Zin ping in Paris where China promised to help deescalate tensions with the well Russia Ukraine disaster but apparently macron's statements on nuclear weapons just aggravated Putin even more it's quite unfortunate in other news Scott Galloway put this really good head piece together it was like 30 minutes long I I encourage you to watch it but uh I'll give you a quick overview He suggests if we love our children why is it so much harder for younger generations to participate in buying cars going to college or acquiring housing and income and he talks about America's war on the young he talks about how why is it fair that today it's so much harder for people to go to college given that it takes about 42% of people's income to go to college today whereas for our grandparents it cost about 14% or our parents it cost 177% or housing prices used to cost three times our income now they cost seven times our income we must hate our children if this is the economy that we're okay with this is Scott Galloway's point of view and what he argues is that there's been this massive wealth transfer of those under 30 controlling about 12% of us wealth to under 7% today a big transition over the last 40 to 50 years He suggests that wealth is being concentrated amongst older generations and older Generations are purposefully building fewer homes to preserve their wealth while at the same time expecting younger generations to pay for them through entitled program entitlement programs such as Social Security of course the flips side argument is that Social Security was paid into by older generations and they're just getting back what they were promised obviously the sustainability of Social Security is something that's really important and should be talked about especially for those who don't actually need Social Security but collected but there's also the fairness question of they did pay into it however getting entitlement reform done is basically almost possible impossible rather and that's something that Scott Galloway talked about as well because older Generations vote and Scott Galloway rightly puts it by saying that's representative democracy for you nobody wants to touch entitlement reform because they know as soon as they touch something like Social Security like raising the distribution age for Social Security they won't get elected now something that Scott Galloway does talk about that I think is really valuable is talking about how colleges have basically become hedge funds offering classes because they collect so much money but barely increase enrollment it's like they collect more money to teach fewer children per dollar received and so what we should do is figure out how to reduce tuitions expand enrollment and increase vocational programs like trade schools big fan here by the way when I ran for governor of California I ran in the prom premise basically and promise of creating future schools which would leave every Californian graduating with a trade skill at 18 capable of functioning in today's society on day one out of college or out of high school rather without College practical skills by 18 that's what's missing from today's curricula including Financial education is it really that hard apparently yes it is Scott Galloway also moves on to suggest that Mark Zuckerberg is evil and we must hate our children because no child should be on social media under 16 there are definitely a lot of divisive feelings that come out of using Instagram Tik Tok and X I found so I try to limit my personal usage to those devices or apps rather to just using them on a web browser on a computer because I just find that is less of a Time suck but that's another issue that really everybody can debate leave a comment down below for now though let's talk economic data and then paler real GDP is currently estimated at 3.3% which is pretty remarkable uh given that it feels like the economy should be showing signs of softening but it just isn't maybe in the labor market it's starting to and maybe some cracks are starting to form but 3.3% pretty strong the Cleveland nowcast suggests that headline inflation might go negative next month I personally think a lot of that has to do with the collapse in oil prices so if you really want to know what's going on with headline inflation do also pay attention to the collapse in oil prices all of April has had oil prices collapse and remember this gets measured in thirds so they'll take the first third second third and last third average the oil prices and factor that into headline inflation for Gas Energy expenditures and otherwise so we should have some hit to the downside on that headline but the nowcast still shows core running at about 3.6% annualized which is pretty hot so you do have some issues you still got inflation moving up TS Lombard hits on inflation break evens basically amplifying this as well consider this up here in inflation break evens just shows you the trend yes it's come down recently but this runup has really thrown a little bit of a rench into the idea of Immaculate disinflation TS Lombard uh is uh is suggesting you're seeing this in the United Kingdom as well not great uh but they are arguing that the looser Financial conditions that we've seen just don't matter to the FED right now sock gen thinks we're not going to see rate Cuts in 2025 and JP Morgan says you know what us exce exceptionalism could keep the USD High relative to other currencies which is a little bit of a problem for earnings in the United States since earnings in the US would take more of a foreign exchange hit TS or JP Morgan rather thinks that we're in a place where earnings expectations or consensus expectations are just way too high going into the second quarter earnings obviously we just got q1 earnings and so we've got a little bit of work to do before we get to Q2 but Q2 earnings could just be too high one of my favorite analogies that I like to use is just think about Apple with an iPad let's say you buy an Apple iPad for 1,000 bucks in America Apple gets roughly $1,000 but if you buy an Apple iPad for the equivalent of let's say $1,300 in France that has to be converted into dollars and if those dollars convert into $1,000 great no foreign exchange hit but what if they only convert into $900 well now all of a sudden you're selling those iPads for a $1,000 discount in Europe and a stronger dollar could hurt earnings more than we would hope so something to keep in mind FX hits could continue in future quarters and that's the bottom line there Why Us exceptionalism what does that mean basically rest of the world's going into recession as our GDP looks like this 3.3% pretty wild now I know a lot of folks pay attention to q1 GDP numbers or paid attention to it this is true q1 GDP numbers were pretty low 1.6% but a lot of that was driven by a lack of buildup a lack of inventory buildup and a lack of exports to other countries actually reiterating the weakness abroad and suggesting that companies feel a little more comfortable in their supply chains in America now let's wrap this up by talking about paler take a look at paler Wall Street greed takes over again I say the reason for this is paler stock yesterday was up 8% down 11% in premarket today now why would that be after all they beat on q1 EA they beat on their fiscal year guide gross margin 81.6% net at 16.7 their sales and administration growth literally grew by 3% while they had headline growth growing by 20 .7% they have over $127 million of free cash flow so you're actually doing really well as a SAS business here you're taking 16.7% to the bottom line your profitable largely free cash flowing business Mega balance sheet what's happening well you're seeing a little bit of a Slowdown in certain sectors where are those sectors specifically Europe and outside of the United States in fact they try on not to highlight outside the United States because headwinds with GDP quote trending towards zero they suggest are slowing down adoption of uh their company's uh services in other countries and so a Slowdown around the rest of the world is affecting pal here we've only got about a quarter of their revenue coming from the United States so that's a little bit of an oopsy doopsy when it comes to their ability to expand their revenues especially with this line right here this line was definitely one form of a nail in the coffin for Palante here on the downside only about 10% of companies actually have ai ready data so while they're closing more deals they're not making as much money up front because they're actually having to help companies get into the correct data first and as a result you're getting some frustration like a lot of what slows us down is people pretending they're competing with us this feels a little bitter you actually have some hate fighting going on by the CEO as well in the earnings call he literally says why do they fight for paler why do why do they every time someone writes something unique paler has gone magga paler doesn't have a product paler doesn't have a margin or margins uh I'm sure in this quarter palente tier's growth is decelerating despite the fact that it's obviously crushing it in America see that frustration yes we're winning in America but the rest of the world is slowing down and people hate on paler you feel a lot of tension coming out from the executive staff they literally say on their earnings call we knew it was we're winning in America we're doing really well and it's true outside of their strategic commercial contracts which were basically their spack Investments they're doing really well they're growing I mean look at this in the US only they're growing 68% year-over-year 22% sequentially really impressive that's like 88% annual growth right uh their US government contracts are not as fast you're really only growing about 12% in an annual side on the government growth side but the US commercial contracts are killing it again us exceptionalism we're winning in the US we need to move Beyond AI chat Bots I love this uh it is music to my ears what paler numbers are and what they're saying about America but the Slowdown abroad and this nail in the coffin right here are well both of these are problems for pound here so anyway there you have a complete breakdown hopefully you like this meet Kevin report I tried to give you both facts and my opinions let me know what you think about that paler bottom line we'll do some bottom lines here at the end paler bottom line I'm actually bullish on paler I think as the rest of the world goes into recession you're just going to create some byy the dip opportunities for a company like paler they're not going BK anytime soon my take the islamophobia I think is really taken out of context around the world especially in the United Kingdom but I do recognize that more votes are being picked up by Pro pro- Muslim candidates because of the pain that is happening in Gaza and it breaks my heart to see the death of Innocence uh in Gaza and so I do blame Israel for that death that really feels indiscriminate but let's be real what happened on October 7th was disgusting it should never happen to any country does it justify the 30X killing of probably 40 to 50% of that being children absolutely not I have seven children and it breaks my heart does that justify graffitiing our campuses or our statues no I hope the peace deal can go through I think we're close to a peace deal I'm hopeful but then again I was hopeful that this war would have ended a long time ago I think Vladimir Putin is waving his ra sabber again and I think it's actually probably good that we start pulling back on some of the weapons funding I think the military-industrial complex has gone a little too far as far as the Trump versus Biden election well let's just say polls are polls and anything can change anytime soon I really agree with Scott Galloway on making sure that we can get more functional education in our schools and I hope it happens sooner rather than later thanks so much for watching this me Kevin Rapport
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