Should You Buy AMD Stock Before the Huge Investor Update?

요약 보기

AMD 주가가 실적 발표 후 약 190달러에서 310달러로 급등해 업그레이드 후 50% 이상 상승. 2026년 AI 수요가 예상보다 강하고 테슬라 CapEx가 200억→250억 달러로 상향되어 AI 생태계에 긍정적. DCF 적정가치는 주당 약 185→193달러로 상향됐으나 현재가 305달러 대비 고평가. 선행 PER 46배, 선행 P/OCF 35.5배로 밸류에이션 부담. 실적 발표 전 매수 기회가 아니라 보유(hold)로 하향. 실적 발표 후 판단 권고. 매출 성장 약 32%, 매출총이익률 약 55% 전망, 매출은 가이던스 상단 가능성.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. AMD stock has been on a rally in 2026. It's up 42% but even more than that, I actually upgraded AMD stock to a buy only the stock price crashed to around $190 per share. So, since then the stock is up about $120. It's now trading at $310 per share. So, since I upgraded AMD stock to a buy, it's up over 50% and so now the company's preparing to report quarterly financial results in early May and investors are asking me, what do I think about AMD stock?

02. Has it gone up too much too quickly? Is it time to sell or is it still a buying opportunity ahead of those quarterly financial results? I'll update you in this video. & AMD will be reporting about 32% revenue growth in the upcoming quarter with gross profit margins around 55% and if you were to ask me, I would say AMD's revenue will probably come in closer to the high end of their guidance rather than the lower end of their guidance.

03. Demand for AI has been better than expected so far year-to-date in 2026 and I expect estimates to be increasing and I expect spending plans to be increasing. We got news from one of the big spenders in capital expenditure in 2026. We got Tesla's quarterly financial results yesterday and already there was an upgrade, right?

04. Tesla told investors they would be spending $20 in 2026 in CapEx and just yesterday they updated that and said, you know what, we're actually going to be spending $25 billion in 2026. So, it wouldn't surprise me if the other big spenders including Meta, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft come back to investors and say, those massive figures we told you about 3 months ago, it's actually going to be higher than what we estimated and that's going to be good news for AMD, Nvidia and the whole AI ecosystem.

05. So, AMD today. The estimated cash flow was actually better than I estimated last time I evaluated the company. About $1 billion more in free cash flow expected from AMD starting in 2027 than I previously estimated. That's almost a 10% increase for 2027 and about a 5% increase from that point forward compared to my previous estimates I had made.

06. So, the intrinsic value per share increased from around 185 up to around 193. But still, compared to the current market price of 305, AMD stock looks overvalued based on my discounted cash flow calculation. And similarly, when you look at AMD on a forward price to earnings basis at 46 and a forward price to operating cash flow of 35 and 1/2, the valuation has gotten more expensive than where it was just a few weeks ago and just a few months ago when I upgraded AMD stock to a buy.

07. So, at these valuations, in my opinion, the stock does not provide a good risk versus reward and in fact, I don't know uh compelling reason to buy AMD stock over Nvidia right now. Nvidia is so much more attractive on a valuation perspective and the business is actually a lot better than AMD and the only argument I'm seeing right now for AMD that makes any sense is that it has more upside and that's true because it's a smaller company.

08. It has a lot less market share. It has a lot more opportunity than Nvidia which is already a multi-trillion dollar company and that's true but I don't think that argument is compelling enough. In any case, to answer the question, do I think AMD stock is a buying opportunity ahead of earnings? I say no.

09. In fact, I'm actually downgrading AMD stock to a hold today after the price has increased by such a substantial sum heading into earnings. I think there's more downside than upside from AMD stock going into earnings. If I was interested in buying AMD stock, I would wait until after the company reports their quarterly financial results, digest the information they provide and then make a decision after you have all that new information.

10. With the valuation so expensive, I'm not interested in jumping ahead of this volatile event and risking my capital to the downside. .