저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
요약 보기
TSMC 실적은 매출 360억달러(전년비 +41%, 전기비 +6%), 매출총이익률 66.2%로 호조. 다음 분기 매출 390~400억달러(전기비 약 10% 증가), 매출총이익률 65.5~67.5% 전망으로 실적 개선 가속. 실적 발표 후 주가는 약 3.25% 하락했으나 저자는 장기 투자 기회로 보고 매수 의견 유지. 주요 리스크는 대만 지정학적 긴장.
다듬은 글
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company reported quarterly financial results and surprisingly the stock price fell over 3% after the announcement. This has been a recurring theme here in the AI hardware industry where companies report really strong results, but the stock prices don't respond. Investors I think are growing increasingly skeptical that these kinds of excellent performance figures can persist longer than the next few quarters.
I'm going to review these figures and update my rating on Taiwan Semiconductor stock, let you know if I think this is a buying opportunity on the dip post earning for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company down about 3 and a quarter percent on the day after the company announced their quarterly financial results.
Year-to-date in 2026, the stock is up over 21%. That could partly be the reason why the shares are down a little bit after the earnings results. The company's share price had been experiencing great enthusiasm after hitting lows around $315 per share. It had been on a steady rise close to $380 per share.
Of course, I rated the stock as a buy when it dipped to $300 to $315 per share. So, I've been very happy to see the rise up here to closer to $380 per share and a little disappointed to see the share price falling after the earnings results. So, we already had an idea of what Taiwan Semiconductor's revenue was going to be like for the current quarter because the company reported those monthly and quarterly figures already to investors about a week and a half ago.
But, the [snorts] figures that we didn't know were profitability and then the outlook for the rest of the quarter and the rest of the year. And those were also positive in my opinion. So, in the first quarter total revenue came in at $36 billion, which was up by almost 41% year-over-year. And it was up over 6% from the previous quarter.
The gross profit margin came in at 66.2%. That's excellent. I believe coming into this uh first quarter result, Taiwan Semiconductor's management team had been talking about gross profit margins around 58% and giving longer-term forecasts warning investors that their gross profit margins would be declining closer to 53% over these next few years.
As the company continues to report these kinds of phenomenal figures, I'm beginning to doubt if their gross profit margin will actually decline closer to 53% over the longer term like the management team is forecasting. Now, some of the reasons why the management team is forecasting a decreasing gross profit margin over the longer term is because they're diversifying their manufacturing base.
They're adding manufacturing facilities in the United States, in Japan, in other parts of the world, and those manufacturing facilities are less efficient than the ones at home in Taiwan. And so, the management team said as they ramp up production in those regions and in those new facilities, their gross profit margin will trend lower over these next few years.
I'm beginning to doubt if that's actually going to happen. Secondly, the company's facing higher energy costs uh both uh at home and abroad, and I felt that might weigh on their profitability, but it hasn't. The company's benefiting from economies in scale and higher efficiency, higher uh capacity utilization where they're using up nearly all of their available capacity, and that allows them to spread the fixed cost across a greater number of units, and that impact is offsetting all of the other impacts that I mentioned before that are weighing on the company's gross profit margins.
Uh the operating profit margin at 58.1% i. The best of the best is around 65%, which I believe Nvidia is holding that top spot now. There's been some uh remarkable changes at the top spot in terms of operating profit margin. For the longest time, Visa had the lead in that category, and second place was MasterCard in my list of coverage, which I cover about 300 uh 200 to 300 companies.
And now these AI and semiconductor companies are increasing profitability so significantly that they are surpassing the legends of the past. Nvidia surpassed Visa. I wouldn't be surprised if Taiwan Semiconductor surpasses Visa and approaches the leadership position as well. So, TSMC also provided the forecast for the upcoming quarter, and they say that revenue is expected to be between $39 billion and $40 billion.
That would be a sequential increase of about 10% from the previously completed quarter where they reported 35.9 billion dollars in revenue, and that would be an acceleration quarter-over-quarter, right? This quarter that was just completed, they reported 6.4% revenue growth from the prior quarter. And so, now they're expecting to generate roughly 10% growth from the prior quarter.
And year-over-year, that growth rate is going to be much larger. So, their results just keep getting better, and the improvement is accelerating. And they're forecasting profitability at uh gross profit margin between 65.5% and 67.5%. At the midpoint, that would be 66.5%, which would be above the 66.2% they just reported.
So again, reiterating an improving profitability profile with an operating profit margin at 57.5% at the midpoint. That would be slightly below the 58.1% they just reported in the current quarter. Overall, the current quarter results were fantastic, and the forecast for the upcoming quarter is also excellent, even better than what they just completed in the current quarter.
Another reason why I'm surprised about the stock market reaction to these results is because Taiwan Semiconductor stock wasn't trading at some ridiculous valuation going into these earnings results. They were trading at a relatively attractive valuation, forward price-to-earnings ratio around 20, a forward price-to-operating cash flow around 15 for a company that's growing revenue 40% year-over-year with operating margins approaching 60% and uh total addressable market opportunity that's approaching trillions, multiple trillions of dollars in an industry that's significantly expanding with demand exceeding supply.
That's uh surprising to me. And of course, the one big headwind for Taiwan Semiconductor stock is the geopolitical tension. The fact that it's in Taiwan and the relationship between China and Taiwan and the threats from China regarding Taiwan, that's really the main reason why Taiwan Semiconductor stock is trading at this valuation.
If it weren't for those geopolitical headwinds, the stock would be significantly more expensive. So, as I mentioned, I recently upgraded Taiwan Semiconductor stock to a buy on April 10th, 2026, and following these earnings results, I will be reiterating that buy rating. I think this is a solid and uh excellent investment opportunity for long-term investors.
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