저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
요약 보기
AI 지출 증가 전망 속에서 엔비디아와 팔란티어를 매출성장률, 영업이익률, 현금흐름, 향후 5년 EPS 성장 기대, 밸류에이션으로 비교. 엔비디아가 성장성·수익성 우위이며 팔란티어 대비 할인된 밸류에이션을 근거로 엔비디아 매수 선호. 두 회사 모두 우수하다고 평가.
다듬은 글
according to statista worldwide spending on artificial intelligence is expected to grow Beyond $84 billion in 2024 that would be an increase of more than $50 billion from 2023 what's more their forecast suggest that spending on artificial intelligence could grow past 826 billion by 2030 and video and paler are in an excellent position to benefit from that growth but for stock market investors which one is the better AI stock to buy today Nvidia or paler I'll answer that question for you in this video comparing those two AI stocks across critical Financial metrics like Revenu what their earnings per share look like over the next 5 years and then their valuation of course the best company makes a poor investment if you pay too high a price so there's a lot to do here let's ge let's start with Revenue growth and when you look at paler and Nvidia over the last 3 years you'll notice the explosive Revenue growth here from Nvidia 262 Revenue growth in its latest quarter coming off the previous quarter where it also grew Revenue by roughly 200% management is forecasting over 100% Revenue growth when they report earnings again on August 28th palente here has done a good job but nowhere near Nvidia here 27% Revenue growth in its latest quarter I wouldn't be surprised if paler continues accelerating their revenue growth because Peter's new strategy is gaining traction among Enterprises we all know paler has done a great job with governments governments have larger budgets and so they can go after the best-in-class service which by the way paler is the best in class in its category but the difficulty is businesses many of them are not as large and cannot afford paler Services just because it's so expensive but paler lately has done an excellent job gaining traction within businesses and that's a much larger opportunity for paler longer term which could accelerate Revenue growth for the AI software company operating profit margin is a similar story they've both done an excellent job expanding their operating profit margin but Nvidia again holds a big Advantage here with an operating profit margin of 59.84 compared to just 11.78% for paler now you'll notice paler has done a great job expanding and increasing its operating profit margin as has Nvidia but it's it's kind of difficult to compare yourself against Nvidia which is just one of the best businesses in the world I'm trying to do that here in this video just to take a look at another AI company that potentially could make a better investment compared to Nvidia but Nvidia with an operating profit margin of 59.84 is near the best of the best in terms of operating profit margins in the world of companies so there are relatively few companies that exceed Nvidia in terms of operating profitability looking ahead n Wall Street 46.3% over the next 5 years each and every year over the next 5 years that is certainly robust earnings per share growth for any company but especially for a company the size of Nvidia that's generating over 25 billion do in quarterly Revenue to be able to grow your earnings per share when you're a company of that size by this magnitude is one of the better growth rates historically for a company of this size it's just magnificent what nvidia's achieving in recent quarters and recent years palente here not to be undone t 85.19% per year over the next 5 years now that's a considerably larger growth rate compared to Nvidia and that doesn't surprise me because paler is a smaller company and it has better incremental earnings opportunities ahead still growing 85% per year over a 5-year period would be an excellent rate of growth and if it does indeed achieve this growth of 85% over the next 5 years paler stock investors will undoubtedly become wealthier than they are today same is true for NVIDIA if that company grows its earnings per share at the rate that is expected from Wall Street over the next 5 years Nvidia stock investors will undoubtedly become wealthier as well the big question mark is if these growth rates are actually achieved remember especially 5 years ahead that's a long time but these analysts are making their forecasts and they are professionals and they have relationships with these companies management teams and they're pretty good at making forecasts of what companies will do over the next several year periods and so if you're going to look at any forecast the forecasts from Wall Street analysts about the companies they're following are reasonably good forecasts to observe now comparing these two on cash flow from operations to sales paler is much closer on this metric the biggest difference betwee are non-cash expenses like stock-based compensation which paler uses in large sums so in this metric Nvidia generates 50.8% of cash flow from operations to sales while paler is at 28.
58% paler and Nvidia have done a great job expanding this metric as Revenue has grown I like to see that from companies I like to see profits and cash flow expand as Revenue grows that demonstrates to me that companies have economies in scale which in simple terms means that when Revenue grows their costs don't grow as quickly as Revenue grows right because you have some costs that are fixed that don't increase with sales things like the rent on your corporate headquarters salaries for your Senior Management things of that nature that don't grow along with Revenue some items do grow along with revenue for instance if you have your salesman on commission basis when your Revenue grows your cost will also grow because the salesmen are earning a commission on those sales that they're locking in now that's not too big of a deal for company like Nvidia and paler but some companies do have that within their business model so there's the difference between companies that demonstrate economies in scale and those that don't and for investors it's better to consider companies that have economies in scale because because profits grow faster than revenue and that's an underlying foundational positive that leads to Great shareholder gains in the long run and the metric I chose to use here is the forward price to earnings ratio and surprisingly paler stock is trading at a valuation that's more than twice as large as Nvidia paler trading at a forward PE of 72 whereas Nvidia is trading at a forward PE of just 32 now one of the reasons for this could be because paler has bett 5 and 10 year periods compared to Nvidia which is already a massively sized company that can only grow at a certain rate over the next five and 10 year periods because before it becomes too large to demonstrate those rates of earnings whereas paler is small enough where it can grow quickly over the next 5e periods 10e period and Beyond because it's such a small size it can continue sustaining elevated levels of growth for a longer period of time and so investors are willing to pay a higher price for a company that has longer earnings per share robust levels of expectations still if I was to pick between these two AI stocks to B to buy I would buy Nvidia I think Nvidia trading at a valuation of less than half than Palante tier is a bargain I would go with Nvidia because the company's better cash flow better profitability better Revenue growth and reasonably stro 5 years I think I take the discount and buy Nvidia stock now these are both excellent companies but if you forced me to pick just one I would pick Nvidia







Comments 0