저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
요약 보기
관세는 미국 소비자 물가·소비를 자극할 수 있으나 혁신적 단일공급 제품에서 문제가 크고, 자동차처럼 경쟁 많은 시장은 보복관세 구조가 합리적이라는 주장. 트럼프 정책의 목적은 달러 의존 재조정과 미국 재정·기업 활력 회복으로 해석. IRA 세액공제 폐지 시 AI용 전력 확보에 문제가 생길 수 있다고 지적하고, DOE 보조금 배분 불공정성을 비판. 관세 수익으로 세금 인하 가능성 언급(Cathy Wood 인용). 자막 내 비트코인 하락·트럼프 전략 비트코인 비축 등 암호화폐 뉴스도 포함.
다듬은 글
other side of the of the Tariff knife is that if there are markets though where you're making something that's fundamentally Innovative where you are but one maker the problematic part of where tariffs really affect the US consumer is then the price of that product of which there are no competitive Alternatives can go very very high and that's inflationary and I think that that slows down consumption and then if if that consumption is not just of something that's nice to have but a must have then it becomes problematic and so you could see where tariffs could impact certain industries hey guys welcome to Everyday Finance another wave of intense volatility has hit the cryptocurrency market causing the price of Bitcoin to drop 7% in just one day ethereum and xrp to drop 9% and cardano and Dogecoin to drop by double digits a number of factors played a part in this decline first president Donald Trump's tariffs on imports from important trading partners like China Canada and Mexico have raised fears of a possible global trade war in a Fox news interview the president declined to address whether these tariffs could cause a US recession adding to the already existing econ economic uncertainty furthermore data from March 9th showed that February was the 30th consecutive month of producer price deflation with China's Consumer Price Index experiencing its steepest decline in 13 months investors are looking for safer assets as a result of these concerns about the expansion of the world economy technically speaking a lot of investors seem to be locking in gains before significant occasions like the White House crypto Summit although there are still unknowns surrounding the global economy and the cryptocurrency market analysts think that the advantages outweigh the disadvantages indicating that prices have a good chance of rising again in the upcoming weeks president Trump's strategic Bitcoin reserve and digital assets stockpile are among the Tailwinds according to White House Ai and crypto adviser David saaks who also highlighted the possible effects these developments could have on the cryptocurrency market in the years to come watch the video that this is the first week where I've seen the first real Schism in how people are interpreting what's actually happening I think that Trump and Elon were very much in a honeymoon period until this week and I think there was the benefit of the doubt but what I saw on X was a real Divergence where on the one hand there were people that were basically saying doge is deranged Elon is crazy Trump is lighting the world on fire in one camp and the other Camp saying he's sticking to the plan and when I thought about this a little bit if you went back to November the 5th I do think it's important to remember that we were at this moment where you had this fork in the road and you had all these important issues where I think the best way to generalize it was that the Democrats believed that the lines should continue to be blurred so whether that was on gender or race or Merit versus some other immutable trait or fiscal and Monet monetary policy things were just getting more and more blurred and then Trump and Elon basically showed up and said actually we want to refocus and we want to make the lines very visible and clear on all those dimensions and a majority of Americans voted that in but I think what you're starting to see now is the difficulty in actually implementing that plan and what I mean specifically is tariffs are very nuanced and complicated on the one hand there's these short-term wins there's these impacts you could deem them positive or negative to the dollar there's impacts to us bonds there's impacts to us Bond markets there's impacts to how countries deal with foreign reserves and then there's this impact that happens when the markets react to a tariff and then Trump takes that off the table and then they snap back so you have this weird set of boundary conditions right now so I think right now we're in the very difficult part of sorting through what the long-term implications are and I can get to some of them later but I think that's where we are I think that's really interesting the goal of tariffs in your mind for Trump is fenol finance related no no give me your definitive what you think this is about I think what tariffs allow us to do is rebase the long-term Reliance on the US dollar it allows us to rebase our ability to fund our own deficits and it allows us to rebase the long-term ability for American companies to be economically vibrant and what I would say is the other the other side of the of the tarff knife is that if there are markets though where you're making something that's fundamentally Innovative where you are but one maker the problematic part of where tariffs really affect the US consumer is is then the price of that product of which there are no competitive Alternatives can go very very high and that's inflationary and I think that that slows down consumption and then if if that consumption is not just of something that's a nice to have but a must have then it becomes problematic and so you could see where tariffs could impact certain industries for example if there are Innovative drugs I think that that's problematic if there are Innovative Technologies of which there's only one vendor that's problematic so all of those need to get sorted out but on balance in commodity markets like look at Autos Autos is a perfect example there are so many purveyors and providers of Autos there is oems all around the world and so to have a compensatory system doesn't seem like an unreasonable thing where it's a Tit for Tat tarff but in other markets where if you need for example a specific piece of equipment from asml to build a chip and now all of a sudden that that machine is 25% more expensive or 30% more expensive and they pass that cost Downstream it becomes very speculative and it becomes a little bit more fragile I think president Trump's proposed tariffs are now having a significant impact on the world economy and financial markets targeting important us trading partners his administration has already enacted and proposed a number of significant tariffs the United States imposed 25% tariffs on the majority of imports from Canada and Mexico on March 4th 2025 the goal of this action is to put more pressure on these nations to stop illegal immigration and drug trafficking particularly the entry of fenel into the United States Canada responded by enacting 25% tariffs on $30 billion worth of American Goods with plans to raise the amount to $125 billion additionally Mexico has hinted that it will declare its retaliatory actions which might involve tariffs president Trump eliminated country specific exemptions and imposed 25% tariffs on All Imports of Steel and aluminum on February 10th 2025 the the effective date of these tariffs is March 12th 2025 although there has been a lot of conjecture regarding the reasons for these actions the administration maintains that they are required to safeguard National Security and assist domestic Metal Industries in the United States in a podcast billionaire investor shth Palapa and businessman David fredberg talked about the problem and gave their reasons for thinking that these tariffs are an important step for the American economy only thing harder than cancelling an adobe license is trying to cancel W Street Journal I was about to say World Street Journal all time Hall of Fame let me just say something about the the budget because Joe brings up something important unbelievable I'll just say it again at the sake of being redundant we're getting to the phase where the details are complicated and they now matter so we've talked about repealing the IRA and its ality right so that was a statement and there's there's theoretically a lot of money there but the details now all of a sudden become complicated F published a report just this past week and what do you think it said was the percentage of incremental electricity that was generated from Renewables versus non-renewables I'll I'll tell you the answer it was almost 91% in December so if you now tie two initiatives together which is how do we find a budget that saves money and how do we continue to win an AI maybe you would have thought those weren't related well guess what we know that AI needs a tremendous amount of power and whatever you thought you knew actually you had to reer because what Elon has shown is actually you need to now create these Mega clusters 100,000 gpus going to a million gpus all of the Power forecasting that we have is is miscast it doesn't even account for this number one number two there are 35,000 applications into F to get approved to generate electricity 35,000 that's going to meander through some administrative rig rule there is a fiveyear delay to get a gas turbine into America and online okay if you ordered one today the fastest that you can get it turned on is 2030 the fastest that you can get a nuclear turned on is 2035 so we don't have the ability to generate incremental electricity very quickly but for Renewables but then if you rip out the IRA there's many parts of the IRA by the way that are just trash Nick I don't know if you can find it but Barry Weiss found this insane thing that made me so angry which I'm happy to talk about which was like a 30-day Grant process that resulted in A7 billion Grant to some shell oh this was throwing the gold bars off the but but the other part of the IRA this narrow part is what it did to reinforce tax incentives and tax equity which is a $200 billion Market that incentivizes that 90% of energy generation so my point is that when you start to get into the details when the house Ways and Means Community has to figure out what part to put back this is going to be hard because it's like hold on if you got the whole thing now all of a sudden you take take 90% of the incremental energy generation incentives out of the market you don't have enough electrons there isn't enough electricity so then you lose the AI Ray so you start to lose it I think the point is that we're now in the hard part where the details really matter and on this on this popup NGO thing to me this is like the worst of America and it makes me so angry and I'll tell you my lived experience so I'm on the other side of this I started a company with these guys from Tesla to make battery materials in the United States in 2019 we grind we grind we put in tens I put in tens of millions of dollars we get a deal with a big OEM and then you see these doe grants we spent millions of dollars we file a very detailed plan to build battery metals and battery capacity in America we got rejected okay it was an entire year-long process we got rejected we put it past us we kept working we found more deals we found a way to survive raise a little bit more money and then we applied again on some success and we got a $100 million Grant okay that was that's what just happened this year but then yesterday I read and Nick maybe you can throw this tweet up this Barry Weiss investigation somebody in 30 days who was connected to the Democratic infrastructure had some shell organization that got a grant that was 70 times bigger than us like we've made stuff we had deals with oems we had to validate it every step of the way we were rejected once so our process to get a $100 million doe program was two years these people showed up in 30 days and got 7 billion similar to Kathy Wood the founder and CEO of RK invest businessman David Friedberg has hinted that President Trump's recent tariff policies may be a sign of significant tax cuts in the US the tax cuts and jobs Act tcja of 20177 was enacted by President Trump during his first term it lowered the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21% and introduced individual tax cuts that will expire in 2025 the administration is currently thinking about extending these individual tax breaks and lowering the corporate tax rate for domestically produced Goods to 15% according to Commerce Secretary Howard lutnick reciprocal tariffs could produce about $700 billion a year which could eliminate the national deficit reduce interest rates and boost economic expansion by raising tariffs this strategy seeks to transfer the tax burden from US citizens to foreign companies opening the door for significant individual tax reductions or even the abolition of federal income taxes according to Cathy wood the current state of the economy is comparable to that of the early 1980s when substantial economic growth was sparked by President Reagan's tax and interest rate Cuts she thinks that Trump's planned tax cuts and Regulatory reforms might spur even more robust economic expansion than that of the Reagan years do you share this opinion kindly leave your ideas remarks and observations in the space provided below for more content remember to subscribe to the channel like this video and enable post notifications your assistance greatly AIDS in the Channel's growth and helps the YouTube algorithm thank you for watching
Comments 0