저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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트럼프 행정부의 암호화폐 규제 명확화 추진과 주 단위 비트코인 준비금 법안 확산을 강조하며, 이것이 비트코인·암호화폐 가격에 긍정적일 수 있다고 봄. 또한 DOGE의 정부 지출 감사 의의, 구글 AI 모델 우위와 광고 최적화 수익 구조, 자동화에 따른 직업 변화 등을 논함.
다듬은 글
we were asking ourselves during the election cycle last year why are all these articles buried why aren't we really getting the truth and it turns out that the people who were responsible for telling the truth somewhere along the chain were cajoled or just told not to tell the truth influenced by all of this back Channel money that was going back and forth from the government to these folks David Sachs the artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency Zar for president Donald Trump made the announcement last week during a press conference with the chairs of some of the Senate and House committees saaks stated that the administration is working on developing a clear regulatory framework for the cryptocurrency industry which is anticipated to be in place by the year 2025 saxs expressed optimism regarding this progress citing strong support from Key lawmakers who are aligned with the cryptocurrency industry for the first time in the history of the United States saxs believes that this new development will have significant positive effects on the industry in 25 and Beyond despite the fact that it has not yet caused any immediate price gains because of this development saak had a recent appearance on the all-in podcast where he discussed the bright future that lies ahead for cryptocurrency regulation in the United States try to give you a little bit of historical context because I think that that's important I think whenever I hear so many people breathlessly saying some version of WTF as if this is totally new it's not new and I'll give you two examples but one that I really want to double click on the two examples I'll give you is that in 1941 The Truman committee was formed because there was a that the spending by the defense department was completely out of whack and over the next six or seven years and this is really what gave Truman The credibility to them become Roosevelt's vice president was they found incredible levels of waste Fraud and Abuse during the war before the war effort and then after Pearl Harbor during the war process over seven years that committee and this is in $1 1941 they were tasked and budgeted with only 20 or $30,000 okay over the next six years they spent less than a million inflation adjusted to 2023 this is where I found the data was about 6.5 million they spent you know how much they saved it's estimated they saved somewhere between 10 to15 billion in 1941 that's a quarter of a trillion 2023 the second example is we did this under President Clinton and that was called the National Partnership for Reinventing government so the first thing that I think it's important to acknowledge is this is not new we've done Doge twice before both have been successful the Harry Truman one was incredibly important because it really set guardrails for how this can be done everything in that committee it was a senate committee was unanimous it was Republicans and Democrats that found waste Fraud and Abuse everywhere they saved an enormous amount of money the second which is interesting is these last two versions of Doge were driven and led by democrats the same people today who are basically saying hey hold on a second we have congressional committees or we have inspector generals and they lacked the awareness to know that their own party was the driving force for this two times before and I think it's important to just acknowledge that those methods are not good anymore right because I think what we're finding early days is the rot is super pervasive there's no accountability and so I think you need people to look at it with fresh eyes and what is Doge at the end of the day what they are are readon Auditors of the truth and the press secretary in the White House made this very clear it's incredible the power that read only access gives you you all it allows you to do is just take the data and present the data they can't manipulate it and what they're able to do is publish all of this stuff in real time and that's why this is so important because if it went into a congressional committee to be honest with you it would sit there and stew for six seven eight nine months you would maybe get small little tidbits of it but now instead you're just getting the full thrust of it and what is the biggest thing that I find concerning I think it's what Antonio said which is that the media who are supposed to be this intermediary layer that's totally objective between the government and the people we not independent at all but had all kinds of hidden incentives $8 million to Politico several million dollars to the BBC I think it's important to ask what's going on and by the way that also has historical context this is exactly what happened in the' 60s and' 70s where it turned out that record companies were paying DJs to pay songs there was a huge set of lawsuits and trial cases and the result was a change in the law right and we call that poola now which is you cannot take this money without disclosing it and so had this money been absorbed by these entities and actually disclosed maybe we'd be okay but Nick I sent you a link maybe you can throw it on the screen for these guys this is a very simple manifestation of this like we talked about this guys and we didn't realize how connected it all was but we were asking ourselves during the election cycle last year why are all these articles buried why aren't we really getting the truth and it turns out that the people who were responsible for telling the truth somewhere along the chain were cajoled or just told not to tell the truth influenced by all of this back Channel money that was going back and forth from the government to these folks the cryptocurrency industry in the United States is in desperate need of regulatory Clarity for a number of different reasons due to the lack of clarity in the regulations businesses such as Ripple coinbase and binance have been subjected to legal action and fines businesses and investors are left in a state of uncertainty as a result of the conflicting signals that the Securities and Exchange Commission SEC and the commodity Futures Trading commission cftc have the central regarding the classification of crypto assets as either Securities or Commodities due to the absence of clear regulations major corporations and financial institutions are hesitant to fully Embrace cryptocurrency they are concerned about the potential for legal risks sudden enforcement actions or shifting rules that could have an impact on their Investments the establishment of clear guidelines would encourage greater adoption by institutions and bring in additional Capital without clear regulations in the United States cryptocurrency businesses and Innovation may move to jurisdictions that are more favorable to cryptocurrency this would weaken the United States leadership position in blockchain technology and reduce tax revenues and job creation within the country it is possible that these avoidable losses as well as fraud scams and misleading practices could be prevented with the help of a clear regulatory framework a great number of retail investors have suffered Financial losses as a result of hacks rug poles or failed exchanges such as FTX trust and safety could be improved by establishing appropriate regulations regarding disclosures custody and trading practices these are just some of the challenges that the Trump Administration intends to address in the coming months which may result in a significant increase in the price prices of cryptocurrencies I think I should stipulate that Google's models are probably the best of all the models across a broad base of capabilities if you test for them and so let's start there which is whatever they're doing is working the thing that they need to do is be able to translate those models now into better products and I think that that will happen slowly like for example if you look at Deep research most of the people online that are evaluating deep research would now say that open AI is both faster and just better on the margins all of these things can be improved I don't think that's a comment on the base model I think it's a comment on post trainining and how they're attempting to productize these things so the other thing that Google has is a money machine that directly benefits from these AI driven optimizations on ad targeting the only other company that has anywhere close to the same credibility is meta so I think what both of these two companies need to do is do a better job of explaining how that 75 billion gets segregated how much of that goes to these AI enabled models that actually do better ads optimization there was a there was a really interesting discussion by a former meta machine learning engineer on X about how they did it it's pretty amazing it's staggering but if they could say half the money goes to that and the other half goes to more speculative you know pre-training and posttraining I think the market would have eaten it up so it's probably more of a disclosure issue for Google because I would say right now their model quality is the best the changing nature of jobs during The Agrarian Revolution and what you saw was a large cohort of people who supported themselves through farming and then the total Quantum of those jobs shrank by 90% when you had industrialized farming and tractors and whatnot but the economy to Antonio's Point grew around that business and added other kinds of businesses that didn't make sense in that moment and I think what you see is that when economies get more and more evolved you see the growth of services businesses that sort of are these things that can only happen when you have excess right the person that you pay for closet organizing would not have had a job in the turn of the agrarian Revolution or the Industrial Revolution but they can they can exist in 202 something and frankly they can make a good job the life coach there are all these jobs that just kind of come out of nowhere I think that I think that you're cut that waiting for this next turn of creativity like the big problem that we all have maybe I'll take the more glass half empty version of what Antonio said is we really haven't been unlocking people's creativity over the last 15 years we've been trundling around except safe of a few companies which we all know and we can just repeat them endlessly but we know which ones they are that are truly innovating and at the edge everybody else is kind of diddling around Naval gazing so the real problem is that we have not had a lot of reps in being creative I'll give you just a very simple example Nick can you find this even extremely state industries did you see the byd clip of the car yes that and I thought myself Park yes with a little swipe it's how tragic is it that you look at this and you're blown away yeah and you're blown away for two reasons one is a I didn't think that that was possible and B why doesn't it exist in America but the reality underneath the hood is extremely benign how this is implemented and so I think that the problem is we spent so much time losing the script I think Antonio is right when you unshackle people to not focus on the mental load of getting the pronouns right or the this or the that you won't be so overwhelmed by things like this because you will have already been pushing the boundaries of human creativity we need to get back to that we need to let these creative people cook and I hope I hope that that happens I think that that will happen president Trump's support for the cryptocurrency industry is legitimizing Bitcoin in the US Kentucky Arizona Utah Illinois Texas Ohio Pennsylvania Missouri Montana and Alabama are among 20 us states that have introduced or are considering Bitcoin or cryptocurrency reserves as state assets as of February 10th 25 Kentucky recently proposed a Bitcoin Reserve law allocating tent of excess State reserves to digital assets Arizona's senate finance committee approved the Strategic Reserve Bitcoin act allowing the state to invest T of public funds in Bitcoin Texas introduced Senate Bill 778 to create create a Bitcoin Reserve in the General Revenue fund to hold and acquire Bitcoin the Pennsylvania Bitcoin strategic Reserve Act lets the state invest T of its general fund and rainy day fund in Bitcoin Florida is the latest to follow suit Florida State Senator Joe grutters introduced sb50 to allow the state's Chief Financial Officer to invest public funds in Bitcoin to hedge inflation the bill proposes using Bitcoin and other digital assets to protect State funds from economic volatility it describes how to hold Bitcoin in Secure custody with a qualified custodian or an SEC approved exchang traded product as bafy also allows the CFO to lend Bitcoin Holdings to generate returns without increasing State Financial Risk the bill restricts Bitcoin allocation to 10% of account funds Florida could also accept bit coin taxes and fees convert them to Dollars and deposit them into the General Revenue fund if the bill passes SB 5D also updates public and pension fund investment laws in Florida to reflect the new policy supporters of the bill say adding Bitcoin to Florida's Investment Portfolio would boost Financial reserves and make them more resilient to economic uncertainty if you enjoyed this update like the video subscribe to to the channel and turn on notifications for more on cryptocurrencies digital assets and the changing Financial landscape thanks for watching
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