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With us on Big Market Voice is First Global's Chairperson and HD Devina Mehra. We talk about the market, as we do every day. Today, we'll have a very interesting discussion. First, Devina wrote a very interesting blog two days ago: "Do you want to become Rakesh Jhunjhunwala?" Everyone wants to become Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, but not everyone became one.
Devina did a very interesting study about some of Junior Balaji's abilities, and how he became Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, and how, if you want, you too can become Rakesh Jhunjhunwala. But good morning, let's talk about this first today because I really liked that blog. So, according to you, the most important quality that Rakesh ji had, and what a normal investor needs if he wants to become a bible, yes, good morning Anuj.
That quality of Rakesh ji, and that book on him has just come out, I really liked that one line in it. Yes, I wrote that blog, but before that, I want to tell all your viewers that we always understand one thing in theory. This equity asset class gives returns, other such classes give higher returns but they are volatile returns, we understand this in theory but actually when it happens that a year passes and you do not get any returns or your portfolio loses money, then you feel that now it should run away, if for two months the price of gold goes up then you feel that it would have been better if you had kept the same instead of equity, or if the price of HD goes up then you feel that it would have been better if you had kept the same, so in the book on Rakesh ji, he had said one thing that the returns I got in equity have come in a long manner, it is not like that and the returns kept getting equal every year, he said that the returns I got were good once in 1989 and 92, then when there was a period from 1993 to 2007 when the entire market increased 350-4 times, that was the period, in this way there were two such periods, apart from that he wrote that there was also a period of 5 years when no returns were made, like the period from 94 to 99, if you remember In the nine-year period from 1995 to 2003, the market's net return was zero.
So, how thoughtfully can you invest in such periods? And don't tinker too much with your long- term position. I would say that you should hold the same stock for many years because sometimes that thing completely changes. If you talk about some viewers, for example, there was once the GK Group or Lal Group, but these groups used to dominate, those who had no children or very few children, or in the middle, PSC was very influential about 20 years ago, and then they left.
So, you can keep changing stocks, but whenever the market remains flat or goes down, you will not get returns. And I may have said this on your channel before, that you should look at the returns of 40 years. Since the Sensex started, it went from ₹100 to ₹ 44,000, but if in those 40 years you missed the 10 best days.
So, instead of ₹ 44,000, it becomes less than ₹15,000. Two-thirds of your return is lost. If you miss 30 days, that means, on average, you miss one of the best days in a year, even less than that. If the truth is true, then 90% of your return is lost, that is not even ₹100. If it is ₹44, then you do not know that those days of relief will come, but mostly those days come when the market is not doing very well, when there is a very bullish environment, then there is not so much increase in each day, but when the environment is of a different kind, that there is frustration, there is anxiety, I do not understand what to do or there is fear that I should exit the market, those days come then, so it was my feeling that Rakesh ji's superpower was that he understood that equity returns are such that they come all at once, then you have to wait for many days, so if you can understand that thing and when that period is going on, then run No, you said absolutely the right thing and the same period is going on right now because since October 2021 Nifty has not given you any returns and fixing is giving good returns, gold is giving good returns, silver is giving good returns, real estate has given excellent returns, then people's mood is a little bit away from equities, then although there was a good rally in the last one month, but what about your point about the market right now, I had to start from the beginning but now let's come to today's market, then because the contact is the same, what should be done in this market, yes, you are right, I mean, the asset classes you talked about, real estate and gold, the returns are long in these too, real estate does not give good and returns, so that is why when there is a sudden return, people start running towards it, let me tell you about gold, for the entire 20 years from 1983 to 20 years there was zero return in nominal terms, in repeat terms, some return came due to rupee appreciation, so this is also the thing, so as soon as that asset class It starts doing well and you start running towards it.
So as far as the Indian markets are concerned, I have already written about it on my Twitter that I feel the risk of crushing is low right now. It does n't seem like there is any big list that the market will crash immediately. So right now, where we are sitting, we all understand that if you invest in the market, there is a risk, but there is also a risk of not investing in the market.
So, according to me, right now it is more that if you have not invested in the market and a big upward move comes, you will miss out. So that risk is high right now. We have to think about all this, but right now that danger is high, so invest your money in equity, but whatever your equity allocation is, it is better to stay in the market at this time.
Good morning, Virendra, I am speaking from Dead Studio. First, two questions from Anuj, if you see, you have answered them. Now, the second one, still we had a conversation, but when we talk to people about equity, people, viewers, ask us questions. First, real estate was doing well, gold was doing well, debt was doing well.
But what happened this time was that the RBI started the rate pause first in India. If you see, this time it has taken a pause, it is a sign and you think that this is a serious pause, this will happen worldwide now, meaning the rates have finally been paused. Now do you believe in this protest? I mean, if you normally sit in India and look at only India or America, there are many countries like that, but if you look at these two countries, then the rates have been paused in America because, I mean, after the pause, if you have not even seen the previous one, if the Prime Minister said that due to the banking crisis that happened recently, there has been a credit titanic there, the financial condition has become bad, then only they can reduce to some extent the impact of increasing the rates, so that is a matter of that place, here the RBI has not said anything, but my guess is that they have not said yet that they will increase the rates after this, they will not say anything, we will see sometime and the reason behind this which I understand and which I think is the Indian economy And the thing that can be of great importance for thousands is the price of crude oil.
If the price of crude oil has come down compared to last year, you all know that if there is relief then it has a huge impact on the Indian economy and even the results of the companies. According to me, to some extent RBI is depending on it that if it will reduce inflation because crude does not mean just the price of good oil going down directly there, there are many downstream products which come down in other industries, so if crude goes down then it has an impact on chemicals, textiles, FMCG, oil and cement, paint, there are many such products on which it is affected.
And plus the second thing of course, right now the inflation fear in India has come down, a big part of it is food items also, but there is a huge reduction there, so if the next inflation goes down then it can come from here and this also makes a difference to other things, of course our current account deficit reduces, GDP growth gets a boost and as I said, if the one you are using is very For all the industrialists, if that input is low, then either your margin expands or if you pass on the price benefit to the consumer, then your demand gets boosted.
So, if there is one thing that can boost the Indian economy, it is the name of crude oil. Okay, so if you see the strength of crude oil, if it settles down, then it will remain economically very strong for the Indian market. And although you are not saying right now that this pose is a very serious pose, this is again an ultimate pose, from here there will be a U-turn.
Well, this time the kind of earnings that have started, you have seen IT, you have seen banks, there have been some problems, how did you like the earnings season so far, madam, of Q4. And one more thing, if according to your opinion, the base is this and crude remained quite cheap, that was good for the Indian market, then which space will dominate this next phase, which will be a strong phase, according to you, you will see a little mixed results of use, if there is an impact of crude, that will happen in the next quarter.
The result will be higher, so as far as we are concerned, the sector which we also like and that has not changed, it has been more than 1 1/2 years since October 20-21, that industrial capital goods is a very rich space, do you also think that its story is over, but the story is not over yet, we did some profit booking, we have also made some changes, some stocks which have run up a lot and now it seems that their price has increased a lot, due to that they have been shifted to other, but that space still dominates in all our CMS, about 9 months ago we had banks, in which our weight is mostly very less, at least there it has become a little more than the price movement in the market, from there also this sector has been at least a little more than the market for a long time in our portfolio, which here in the last one or two quarters, that is, understand January, and in this balance, we balance, the sectors where we have increased a little, are those which our system likes and this is pharma, auto components and we have increased some weight in autos more with us today To discuss the market and also to discuss the beautiful blog that you have written, the blog is available on moneycontrol.com.
Those who want to read it, please listen to the discussion again and you will get the highlights. Before we go to Sachin, let's do one thing.
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