저자: RamdevAgarwal · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 인도 시장은 가치 대비 하방이 제한적이고 상방이 크다고 보며, 중장기 낙관적 전망을 제시함. 거시(경상수지·환율·인플레): 경상수지 적자가 크게 줄어 현재 거의 균형 수준이라고 설명. 루피는 매년 약 30% 하락하는 흐름이었으나 수출·서비스 수출 개선으로 적자 축소가 이어지며 하락 압력이 완화될 수 있다고 봄. 다만 루피 약세로 수입물가(컴퓨터 등)가 올라 인플레이션 압력이 생기고, 이후 인플레가 잡히는 사이클이 온다고 언급. 수출·서비스: IT 서비스 수출 둔화 가능성이 있으나 기타 서비스 수출(글로벌 역량센터 등)의 성장 모멘텀이 강해 올해 서비스 수출은 약 30% 증가한 것으로 언급. 내년 전체 서비스 수출 성장은 10~15% 수준 가능성을 말했으나 확신은 없다고 함. 기업 실적·밸류에이션: 매출 성장률 15~17%, 마진은 원가 인플레 전가로 점차 개선 조짐. 기업들이 가격 인상을 이어가고 있으며 일부 원가(항공 운임 등)는 하락. 실적 상향(earnings upgrade)이 곧 시작될 수 있다는 리서치팀 의견을 소개하며 기대감 표명. 니프티 16,817 부근이 시장 바닥(베이스)이라는 인식이며, 18,000까지 랠리 가능성 언급. 현재 PER 약 18~20배 수준에서 하방 약 10%, 상방 20~30%로 1:3 리스크 대비 수익 구조라고 평가. 중국 대비 인도: 중국 경제 성장에도 주식시장 성과는 부진했던 반면, 인도는 기업 지배구조·법체계 신뢰로 주식 수익률이 상대적으로 좋았다고 설명. 3.5조 달러에서 7조 달러 규모로 6~7년 내 성장 가능성을 높게 봄. 리스크: 원유 가격 급등·지정학 리스크로 인한 외부 충격, 루피 약세 지속 시 수입 비용 부담. 출연자 전망 요약: 인도 시장 중기~장기 긍정, 단기 조정 시 저가 매수 관점 유지.
다듬은 글
Thank you, Viru, and today in the Market Guru series, we have a very special guest with us in our studio, Ramdev Agarwal, Chairman of Motilal Financial Services and known as the Warren Buffett of India. He is very influenced by him and has a great focus on valuations. He has a very good grasp on market cycles.
Another thing about Ramdev ji is that Ramdev ji normally does not track the market. Many times, when I talk to him, he asks, " Okay, I don't know where Nifty is because I don't track it." Ramdev ji, first of all, thank you for taking out time for us. Especially, thank you for coming to our studio. You were saying that you have a very interesting view on this.
It can be a very big track and for the Indian market. Let me explain it. Look, the current account deficit was very high in this year's school because that happened. Oil went up to 1995. A little export was also a little on it, so the current account, but gradually, as our services exports picked up and Merchandise exports also did well and geared up on the strength of oil, all that happened together and right now in Q4 Vodafone, I think it is of plus minus type, black current account deficit is just about baby half percent and maybe flat, we also have one small surplus due to number C, but what is happening in this way is that your rupee which falls by 30 percent every year, if that is possible then it means that it may stop here for a few years, okay because RBI is not a tea, but what will happen is that your inflation will keep increasing, so with 4x, the deficit which had fallen from 650 to 550 has already become 585-90 and is decreasing every week, so if in this year normal delivery of goods increases by 12% then dollar will be of GDP growth because you will not have loss in translation, so your purchasing power will remain stable, it will not increase but it will be stable, this can also make a difference on inflation because your 18 year decline of three-four days ago There is a decline, the cost of imports increases, everything is imported from the dollar, computers are also important, the 4% price is not high in the mind because of the decline, so what will be the answer to this, inflation will come down, then the entire cycle, but Ramdev ji, one of the cards from this is that the Indian market, which has been such a strong support factor, may not have been there last year, but the maintenance of the IT space will end, but there will be some impact from it, and take it differently, brother, if you take your exports, they were 12% to 13% and the base is 200 billion, 12% means 22-25 billion, okay, only 25 billion will come, only 25-27 billion will come extra, so clearly the growth rate of 18% and the percentage of 245 billion dollars will decrease there, but your other services exports, so the captains who are opening business services, there are big people, 60 thousand have happened, the momentum there is very high, so the total services exports this year were very surprising.
It is around 30%, which means ₹250 billion has become ₹3509. Now next year, services exports in total bill IT by 10% 15%, I don't have that much idea, but they have to watch today, forward it to you, okay, because you talked about skip, one more question is added to it, then there will be music, if they feel that Rupee is not doing the definition, then because they have to fight, whatever they earn, so what, and one thing of yours, see, in the last, its exit will be more painful than the amount, their entry will also be, so you are getting that the next invitation has gone, according to me, whenever there is a little surprise in earnings, a little extra library, whatever happens, if the price of oil falls, that crane war goes on, there is just a fire, any diversion, if there is a little bit in earnings, then a little bit of confidence comes in the energy market, I think they would like you to come back in India, because see, if there is an Indian story, if you do n't know, there is such a story, it is there.
No, the story of China was very good, we learned it from many people and we are also learning it, but the stock market did not grow there, so the economic growth and stock market growth were two different things, so no, it has not decreased in China, money will be made there, the economy growth in India was much slower than China, but still a lot of money has been made because of the corporate color here, the justice system here, the legal system, that means I trust the corporate economy a lot, so I feel that this story of India is not such a big story, from 3.5 trillion to 7 trillion flat in six to seven years, such a high probability means with 199%, your 3.5 trillion will increase further in 6 to 7 years, there are very few such places, so you will make 10%, you will make 12%, you will make 15%, that remains to be seen, but this type of predictable high visibility story is very rare, so if it becomes stable, Ram ji, one thing that I always liked about you, you always taught me one thing that whenever you invest, then one thing Let's see how much downside there is in it, after that you have to protest because episodes are unlimited, so in the Indian market at this time, how much downside is going on from here, that we went up to 16800, I know you do not track Nifty levels, but it went up to 16817 and from there in a good rally up to 18000, see, this is the reason to take that 16817000 will be a base of the market, that think, so because look, I have seen from your apps brother, apps, next question, 950 paise, all 925, so understand that the story will fall around that, 939, which means you are trading current or 23 24 times, that means 20 times, that means 18 19 times, so the meaning of game in this is ok, 15 16 can also come, anything can happen, but your downside is very limited, very important, now the site potential is very high because this year your day was 15 17% Next year again that type of growth is going to happen, so your down side is 10%, up side is 20 25 30%, this type of 1:3 gate is visible, in fact, your research team was making a note this time about earnings that after many quarters, perhaps earnings upgrades will start, you have confidence because those upgrades have been a mirage, for us I mean they have not come, we say every time that maybe all will come in triangles but they have not come, this time looking at Kotak, except Accept IT, it seems that perhaps everything is running great, maybe it can, see there is top line momentum in the economy, you see and in 223 there is 15 16 17% offline growth, problem is because of margin, that means cost inflation which was competitive inflation, all that we are able to pass, we corporates are now gradually increasing that part and comedy prices are also coming down, so I feel that from many companies we Let's talk, everyone says that sir best margin is going to be there, one of you is things are stabilizing and actually you mean like friends from India to America and the flights that we used to do for medicine, if there was a late date you should be 30% premium, no more 10-15% discount on the rocket, so it's a lot of decline of this type, many things when verified, verified, material items were actually price are going up, price are going up, so in this way I feel that because the economy is growing at 6-7%, then your top line will come, consumption will come, weather corporate surprising power, note date depends on the competition.
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