저자: RaamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
요약 보기
인도 IT 섹터와 금융주에 대한 장기 낙관론을 펼친 영상으로, 단기 가격 방향에 대한 명시적 예측은 거의 없음. IT 섹터: 인피니티(Infosys) 등 대형 IT주가 35~40% 하락 후 보유하면 3년간 좋은 수익을 내왔던 과거 패턴을 언급하며, 이번에도 유사할 수 있다는 취지. 인도 IT 기업의 AI·머신러닝 관련 사업 확대와 글로벌 기업의 대규모 투자로 기회가 있다고 봄. 밸류에이션: TCS의 TTM 기준 PER 27~28배는 높은 편이며, 과거 인피시스가 17~18배에서 바닥을 형성한 사례를 들어 20~22배 수준까지 내려올 수 있다고 시사. 다만 선행 실적은 누구도 알 수 없다고 언급. 신생 디지털 기업: Paytm, Zomato, PolicyBazaar, Swiggy 등 인터넷·디지털 기반 신사업 모델이 확장성이 커 물리적 기업보다 성장 여지가 크다고 평가하며, 이들 종목의 큰 랠리를 언급. 금융주: 소형 금융(스몰파이낸스)은행 종목 보유 사례를 들며, 하락 시 심리 관리와 투자 논리(thesis) 유지 여부가 중요하다고 강조. 장기적으로 상위 은행들의 시가총액 성장을 신뢰한다고 밝힘(약 90~95% 확신). 은행 섹터는 향후 12개월 내 상승 여지가 있다는 취지의 발언도 있음. 실적 코멘트: 해당 회사의 주택금융 부문이 양호하고, 자산운용 부문은 시장 연동이라 실적이 평탄했다고 설명. 회사 순자산 성장률은 최근 11~12%로 과거 20%대보다 둔화됐으나 향후 회복 가능성을 언급. 리스크: 정치 변수, 은행권 위기 등 예측 불가 요인이 있으며 2차 파급효과를 우려.
다듬은 글
You must have seen this cycle strike for so many years. Historically, whenever stocks like Infosys fall by 35-40%, if you accumulate them in a portfolio, they give good returns in the next three years. Do you think the same story will play out this time too? Or are you getting a little scared looking at the market or looking at the body language of these companies, especially after the hauler numbers given by Infosys?
But this means it is a big company, it has become a very big sector, there will be 27,200 blenders, exports have become the last place in the global economy. So, if you look at that recovery in tech, everything else has happened there, banking has happened there, or banking is bomb, and tech. And slightly there, tech is on fire.
All of banking. So, in my opinion, only country where banking bill will be in the pick up and tech bill will do ok at list on the next 12 months and what ever happens in the global economy and demand pickup because it is a very dynamic thought. Now like chat secrets, all machine learning related things, there are lots of them.
New things are coming, so ultimately whatever needs to be done, all this is from Indian companies and the application is very good, meaning this is a different skill, so again young new people who should be skilled in these new things and again they come and serve the global corporate, so opportunity is actually afraid and but right, no coming out of coverage happens, so on that side because four billion is making huge capital commitment by the corporate, so it is possible, please, what should be accumulated in an odd year, if you will add any stock to your personal portfolio, I understand, its relation is terrific, this is its model, the free cash flow is so slow, like paper, still they are buying bags, so this is a cash machine, everything actually, so still, but I feel that it is not the lowest of the cycle, like, I mean, the mother lode multiple of 27-28 of TCS, can I get about 20-21, 22 times or so time wise earnings is that good, and in any way, Infosys So it happened at 17-18 but if we talk about it in TCS, I am talking about TTM, everything else is in exercise and the one which is reported, okay you are talking about KTM, okay so TTM means those who are watching our videos, which is already reported, the one which we talk about trailing, we talk about forward, now it is 24, will IPS come in 25, the companies themselves do not know, so from where will we guess, so Ramdev sir always looks at TMT which is already reported, it is a very good thing sir, I remember one thing in this, last time you had said that one should buy that thing where there is a lot of money and where you feel that now the valuation has become very supported, you had given examples of new companies, okay and from there we have seen a great rally in that basket, Paytm, Zomato, Policy Bazaar, there has been a huge rally in it, you have invested in the space, you will still remain invested, this series story is very long, you mean big, you should look at it, right now look at the top 10 companies, there are 9 companies in it So, in India, there are tech companies, so even now all the banks and all these, I mean Infosys, are two-three days old, but tech- oriented companies, tech printed and physical like Zomato, Policy Bazaar, Swiggy or Paytm, these types of new business models are emerging, business yaar, but they are driven by internet and digital technology, so this caliber is basically new businessmen, scalability, if you are successful, you can achieve 100% or think in three years, American growth, and in the next four to five years, but in physical companies, this is not possible because the mode of reaching the customer is physical, the mode of reaching the customer is digital, so there is a lot of expansion, so for this reason, if any business model is successful, give its limit, okay, what is the respect in the market at this time, will there be a political factor because we will grow like general elections or global rest factor, the banking crisis that is going on in it will still be a respect or Any other respect which is currently unknown to us will come from unknown, meaning whatever it is, like banking mail doctor is going on almost like that thing, what effect will it have, meaning there will be a second stage effect on the world, I don't know, but in this type of thing, some meaning comes from the story, meaning whatever big you can have, there are such accounts in the market, so to handle this, we have to practice safety, so they need to buy it about 15 to 20 p multiple, that is TTM Ramdev ji, I will give you one stock example, I am not asking your view on that stock, I am just giving that one example and I want to understand that if such a drawdown happens, then how should the psychology be strengthened, like there is a small finance bank, you had a huge exposure there, there was a result of 70% after Covid, 60-70% after Kuber, at one time you had said that your confidence might have shaken once, but after that, there has been a great recovery in it, again when they make doda like this, Do you remain invested in it or if there is a thesis intake then you remain an investor or if there is a price then you exit from it, this is a question our viewers ask, so let's ask you, see what is the case with me, I work in a company, every year in the company, I mean, I have seen 25% growth in 8 years, so here even a 45% angle does not come, always up and with the most studied kid of an actual flat in Dehradun, Dehradun, so this reality of business is very important to understand, so what is your long term belief on the banking sector and on this management team, opportunity is for everyone, so today if your top four banks, smallest and top four is about 2-3 lakh crore market, do you think this bag your banks can join and legally in the next 10 years, it depends on your belief, it depends on your trust that whether this management has that, you know the passion, enthusiasm and power to achieve that, I think because we I have been an investor since 2007, so I have seen it like an kid, so I have faith that the faith that turns out to be right, if what I told you turns out to be wrong, then you will not like it, this is how it happens, it is a problem, I can only say 100% that it will happen, but I think it is a 90%, 95% chase, the story was Bill Panauta, actually only one example was given, we were talking about small finance because Ramdev sir has invested in that stock from that Pari IPO, okay sir, since you were talking about the results from your own numbers, what is one reason for this quarter, what was the highlight after that and what is your outlook going forward, Modi's twin engine kid of company, one operating business where you can get every after every free cash flow and profit of about 98000 crores and the second is an portfolio of about 45000 crores, whether what happens today is market linked, so the first one has 67% growth and overall profit About 9934 and so dat operating n hj dat ok because dat is also looking to d market when market is very well you are translating d when you everything is very high and and d brokerage on higher value is higher so whether they have Daniel there is a bright spot which is our housing finance dat was in dat top time last before years this here it has kind of come out of dat and against 70th cross last air this air be have dat about 100 and 30 35 crore profit so thats one bright spot among d portfolio d business where no things are looking good amn in d back drop of n tire create market this is looking good very good just so dat is one highlighter wood se and I think in d current also it bill lead d pack in ter warnings coming from d se portfolio side market was flat this also flat as n market is very well I think and dat engine bill fire Up and maybe my product should do better so what we do is about 15 to 20% across the portfolio so typically if you see from you on 15 so they head the new star ji our net worth growth in a compound way it was both 20% 23 24% so this year is about 11 12% so it bill pick up today forward to you so we are on the track but nothing great you talk about on the air itself okay so jo di best to you too for next year and thank you for taking so much time out to be with us first and now with us thank you so much it was nice talking to you we will finish then we will take a break on this note and after the break we will bring you news and market again
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