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hello and welcome to the global dialogue I'm Shireen van the world is going through immense amount of uncertainty there is a Health crisis there's an energy crisis there's an inflation crisis and there are geopolitical flash points that we have to contend with India stands out relatively as a much more stable destination joining me now for the annual India investment conference for his view on where things currently stand for the global economy and for India is JP Morgan's Jamie Diamond Jamie many thanks for joining us here on CNBC TV 18.
always good to have you back I'm thrilled to be here only sorry I couldn't be there in person because I very much enjoy visiting India every year well Jenny before I talk to you about India let me ask you about the state of the global economy you said in June uh that we should be bracing ourselves for a economic hurricane you weren't sure then whether it was going to be a minor one or a super storm as things currently stand which is it likely to be yeah so actually earlier then I said we have storm clouds out there I think those storm clouds a hit you know you mentioned them like there's a lot of turbulence out there and I you know I was never trying to predict a hurricane I was simply trying to explain to people that it could be a very modest storm like it could dissipate quickly or it could be a hurricane and then people should be prepared for getting worse because we've never you know there's more quantitative tightening fiscal stimulation the tension between America and China these are just very serious things you have you know bad economic outcomes well speaking of bad economic outcomes are you now penciling in the worst case scenario given the fact that Central Bankers have no choice but to continue to tighten uh and what we have seen at this point in time is further deterioration as far as Russia and Ukraine is concerned and further tension between China and the us over Taiwan are you now bracing yourself for the worst outcome no I mean maybe you'll be surprised but when I said in June I expected all those things to happen more inflation higher rates I talked about an unpredictable war wars are unpredictable I still think the range of outcomes is a range and you should look at it you know I think a hi and that's why I think people should be repaired I'm much more concerned by the way about the humanitarian crisis the war you know these are bad things you know volatile markets we could all deal with but there are a lot of people who are being hurt by these conditions around the world oh absolutely in fact uh you know the sustainable sustainable development goals are nearly every single one of them we are off track and it looks like the 2030 timeline is unlikely to be met but you know let's talk about India Jamie and it would be nice to have you in India but what's the outlook on India at this point in time especially given what's happening around us now look I I think it's very good you know since I've been coming to India I've seen a nation that's you know grown dramatically over time like we have 40 000 people there it's our the second biggest destination for technology for us so it's very high tech and so of your your education systems are excellent you're a lot of things but look and you've done a lot of really I've always said fabulous things like your biometric identification open the checking accounts trying to develop your infrastructure better uh you know getting rid of bureaucratic regulatory murders it should be the fastest growing Nation to plan for the next 10 years if you don't it's because you didn't do all the right things I think if you do those things it's very bright and you know you have people like America who and looks at you got to make sure the rules are right the regulations are right the capital is treated right uh you know as I talk about rules I've talked about rule of law bankruptcy tax bankruptcy law tax code if you get those things right the world is your oyster well we have a lot of that already in place of course more work needs to be done but a lot of those reforms have already been taken forward but Jimmy you know one of the things that the market is going to be watching very closely for is the possibility of the inclusion of the Indian government bonds in the JPMorgan Global Bond the index and uh you know the expectation is that we could hear a decision on that front sometime between September and October would it be legitimate ask to to have India's part of the bond index absolutely you should ask ill be part of it and if I didn't get in I asked there is a sign what you ior yeah well we are waiting for that decision uh but you know you talked about fund flows uh Jamie and I want to understand from you what the Outlook is as far as fund flows are concerned into Emerging Markets like India in light of the fact that we are now seeing the FED hike and perhaps needing to hike even more aggressively and what is the trajectory on rates that you are now working with yeah so yeah one of the things about those storm clouds is I said the y' is still strong is i of QT and generative we some countries benefit from don't get hurt as much from a strong dog some benefit from it some sell Commodities and dollars don't buy a lot of oil and dollars it's literally country by country what they borrowed how much debt they have and stuff like that but it does cause a lot of tremendous the flow of funds you know markets graz another thing to okay you know talked about uh fun flows let's talk about what's happening as far as the stock markets are concerned uh the kind of correction that we have seen in the global markets India has been relatively an outperformer in comparison what's the Outlook as far as Global equities are concerned in light of the uncertainties that you spoke of basic points that will have an effect on stock prices they'll have much more effect on growth stocks than value stocks and less of effect in India because in India even though you have a lot of growth stocks you know your growth prospects are so good for so long it's just going to have a different effect on people you know investing long-term money uh in India but but to give you a shocking kind of number you know one percent interest rates a dollar a year is worth a hundred dollars at 10 interest rates is worth six or seven you know it's worth ten dollars and at ten percent interest rates you know 65 of the value is in the first 10 years at one percentage rates something like six or seven percent of value is the first ten years so anything that has cash flows way out here you know are going to be diminished in value by race and think of by the way Bitcoin gold certain types of real estate raw land Venture Capital you know growth stocks where they're putting a lot of cash in now and hoping to get profit down the road so these these rates adjust everything differently but they will adjust the value of of all things you know you spoke about Bitcoin Jamie uh uh given the kind of volatility that we're seeing there what do you make of it I mean you've always been a bit of a skeptic but uh do you do you foresee a significant decline from the levels that we're already at yeah I I wouldn't use the word a bit of a skeptic I would say total skeptic but that's about a crypto token that you call a cryptocurrency that does nothing we believe in blockchain defy uh ledgers and some of these tokens that do something so if a token could do something for you like it's part of a smart contract or it gives you information a timely basis you want that's got value I mean we're one of the biggest uses of blockchain so uh but what I'm pointing out is that you know at higher mates you have to carry the question it has no natural income from it and therefore that will affect it yeah uh you know I what impact is politics likely to have you've got midterm elections in the U.S you've of course got the big political event in China and of course the war continues uh which is sort of causing uh instability across Europe at this point in time uh how are you reading or looking at political developments and geopolitics and the impact and implications it will have on the economy you know uh surprisingly elections normally don't have a lot of impact on the economy at that year uh but I do think this kind of geopolitical stuff you see now is a sea change of assumptions and what happens so after February 24th you know I think that shattered the Illusions a lot of people that pieces at hand and that National Security is kind of a given and so geopolitics it's just elevated and of course Ukraine did a lot to hurt the relation between China and right and uh America and so we nailed the Western World the Democratic World also has to Think Through what role it wants to play you know how important to defend democracy in this world how you know our autocratic could be allowed to get away with certain types of things and you know India's got to figure that out too by the way so I would love to see the Western World in a mature humble kind of way get together work with each other create National Security for each other around food energy and other types of trade things you know keep the world safe with democracy and I do think it's important it doesn't have to be done against anybody it should be done for ourselves and it really has it really should be done together in terms of trading the world in terms of bilateral investment rights opening up each other's countries uh I think the world be far better if we did that we did it well and I do think you know nations are doing a bit of that and I think President Biden has done a good job coalescing some of that particularly around Ukraine I want to talk to you about digitization and the competitive landscape in light of what we are seeing from fintech companies we're seeing that play out in India of course fintech companies not making any money at this point in time but how do you read this and what does that mean as far as jpmorgan's owns plans are concerned going forward yeah so we we have tremendous competition okay Indian Banks India German banks in Germany obviously the big Banks the United States then we've got Shadow Banks which are huge they've taken over a big part of the mortgage business they took it a big part of direct lending leverage lending in the United States they take apart a big part of trading you know you hear about the high frequency Traders and payment for the flow and they have fintech and fintech you got to look at it's a huge amount of investment in it some have already quite successful PayPal Square Stripes name a few others are around the fringes data and a whole bunch of other services and they're they're good competition they also have very little regulation relative to Someone Like Us so they have advantages uh uh but a lot more profitable they're not all going to make it and obviously we can spend a lot of money building great systems some for competition I would I would prefer to see more of a Level Playing Field and regulations and then but the other thing you didn't mention is Big Tech I mean you know apple apple now has a P2P buy now pay later credit scoring uh uh the white label credit card and bank accounts through Goldman Sachs and that's a bank they don't have social requirements legal requirements the same AML requirements that are capital requirements of registration requirement transparency requirements now at one point it may be the regulars will eventually say okay if you do a product the products have a certain type of Regulation and uh but anyway we're gonna have all our competition I'm very comfortable about JP Morgan but it's going to be a lot of competition and they're going to be a lot of winners and losers well we would have loved to talk more about the winners and losers and about your plans but we ran out of time Jamie it's always a pleasure to appreciate you joining us uh here on CNBC TV 18 and we look forward to seeing you back in India soon next time in person keep the faith everybody thank you thanks very much that point he's got it tennis Legend Roger Federer is all set for his last hurray at the Laver Cup in London the Swiss Maestro 25 year long career boasts of wins that most people could only dream of the 41 year old tennis player was the first person to win 20 grand slam titles he was he has held the world number one spot in tennis for more than any other player barring Novak Djokovic fedra's first major win at Wimbledon goes back to the year 2003 when everyone realized the young boy was ready to take the tennis ball by storm Roger Federer Raphael Nadal and Novak Djokovic The Big Three are collectively considered by some to be the three most successful male tennis players of all time after making his Mark and being considered the goat or the greatest of all time in the field of tennis Federer's last professional match a doubles alongside 22-time Grand Slam winner Rafael Nadal at London's O2 the jewels plays against Francis typho and Jack sock of team World on the 23rd of September he has a special conversation with cnbc's Tanya braio how hard was it for you to come to this decision and how important was it for you to have your family support and how do you think you're going to feel when you walk off that Court here look um at one point you have to take a decision in life and sometimes it's good to have a deadline you know and for me at the moment it was taken it was emotional but then after that I was able to to feel relieved and then it got stressful as I was trying to write a letter to the people to let them know that I'm officially retiring because also I carried the weight with me and my team and my friends and family for probably a good two and a half months so it's long you don't want leaks of course to happen because I want to be the first to tell the fans and the people and of course it will be emotional at the very end look it has to be I was always an emotional player and maybe we'll see more of that I don't know I'm just hoping I'm just hoping that I will get through the match somehow well of course you played with Rafa with Novak with Andy in a golden era of tennis what do you think you'll miss the most about it and also what's been the proudest moment for you personally um I think a proud moment for me has been my longevity um I haven't been there for so long haven't had the chance to play on all these different courts many many times and live through those emotions being a Wimbledon champion obviously is for me a very proud moment being world number one it's maybe the ultimate accomplishment so I feel like those were big moments I won the Olympic gold as well Olympic silver here in London um won the Davis Cup as well in Lille so um how all the everything I ever asked for happened so um and uh had so many tough opponents you know and that I was able to somehow evolve throughout um that was a that was a great feeling as well and just finally Roger what's next for you yes um I have a wonderful Foundation that I started almost 20 years ago now um so I have lots of work there I'm looking forward to seeing what what the plans are for the future as we always plan in the long term there um so that's not going to change for the time being but let's look ahead now we can start to read it properly plan and not always having to be flexible um look uh I'd like to stay in tennis in some way another I'm an ambassador to a lot of wonderful partners and Brands I'm also involved heavily and on running a shoe company from Switzerland so I can always go around and design and help them you know build things which is very creative and very a lot of fun and then I have four children and I need to take care of them I want to take care of them and have a wonderful wife who has supported me throughout so I'm looking forward to to having more time to plan and schedule even though I got a taste of it the last few years since I wasn't on the tour so much anymore but uh a lot to look forward to I think the wrap on this edition of global dialogues we bring you more news and updates on the other side stay tuned
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