저자: TomLee · 외국인
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트럼프 행정부 2기는 친기업·감세 기조와 비둘기파 연준으로 증시에 우호적이며 시중 현금 7조 달러가 대기 중이라고 봄. 주택이 경기 회복을 이끌 수 있고 금리 안정 시 주택·경기민감주·소형주 상승 여지가 크다고 주장. 중국의 엔비디아 조사, 관세 등 무역 리스크는 존재하나 2025년 셋업은 좋다는 낙관론. AI 확산과 엔비디아 등 반도체 사이클은 2025년 말~2026년에 본격 상승 가능성을 언급. 기관 설문에서 다수는 빅테크(Fang)보다 경기민감주에 베팅하고 있다고 설명.
다듬은 글
uh yes I think that the market is trying to figure out exactly how this animal spirits plays out in markets but I would say we've got a treasury secretary that Equity markets approve of we we do know that the the last Trump presidency was cared very much about what stock prices do and Jeremy seagull said this is the most stock market focused president ever and I think that the uncertainty is around trade and the potential risk around tariffs but we'll have to see I mean that's something markets are going to have to like deal with it from an uncertainty perspective Tom Lee is optimistic about the 2025 investment Outlook citing supportive factors such as a potential Pro business administration a doish Federal Reserve calming interest rates and $7 trillion in sideline cash he believes housing could lead economic recovery as affordability improves and historical Trends suggest a favorable Market trajectory he notes that markets are shifting towards cyclical stocks and small caps while navigating uncertainties like trade tensions and tariff risk additionally geopolitical moves like China's probe into Nvidia may impact the tech sector overall Lee sees a strong setup for investors in the coming years but if we look at the 2025 environment it's a great setup because we have a new Administration coming in that's maybe Pro Animal Spirits you know a trump put we have a dovish fed and as you're pointing out interest rates are kind of calming down after rising and we know there's still 7 trillion cash on the sidelines and I think sentiments coming back into check you mentioned that before with the AA II number so I think it's a good setup for investors I wouldn't be too worried about the next 12 months so don't be too worried I mean it seems that they're all these supportive factors and when you mentioned the 220% uh up years in a row history says actually you know the following year is up more often than not as well what what do you mean do you think specifically by the new Administration being pro-animal Spirits first of all it's true you kind of seen it at work um it seems to pull in that direction but is there are there specifics that the market is fixated on that is going to drive that Dynamic let's get more now on Nvidia and the moveing semis today with our SEMA Modi hi SEMA hey Scott you touched on trade and geopolitics with China's investigation into nvidia's anti-monopoly practices is widely seen by the street as a negotiating tactic it comes one week after the US Commerce Department hit Beijing with new export controls that takes aim at the broader semiconductor industry uh the Council on for relations fellow David act says by launching a probe into the most valuable company in the world China is signaling that it can inflict pain on the US and if president-elect Trump decides to Levy tariffs on China uh in terms of market share China is an important market and makes up less of nvidia's total revenues today which at one point were around 25% Scott now closer to around 10 to 12% that's according to analyst estimates shares of Nvidia along with other chip stocks are trading lower today on this news and worth noting have underperformed the broader Tech sector since the US election Scott thank you at seam mod n m researches Ben writes as Ben uh good to have you you seem to be excited about a home appliance at Apple as well at least you wrote it up it's on a Bloomberg story it doesn't exist yet um why did you spend ink on this well it's only a few paragraphs there but uh but I I it is good to see something coming from them but I do feel like they could have a a bigger role in the home um and wanted to just size the opportunity it's it's modest but it's it's it's a nice to have uh and it could be bigger than the Vision Pro so you sorry Jim sorry Jim I know that's not saying much more importantly though you know in terms of chat GPT Andor at least the AI features that many have been waiting for and the roll out how are you seeing that in terms of impacting uh sales of the actual device yeah we have iPhone sales accelerating um over the next 3 years frankly we're pretty excited about the software creating an upgrade cycle it's going to be gradual it's going to be rolling um the features today and that are coming out this week that people can play with are are very good I mean the integration of chat GPT and by the way they should get a cut eventually of those who upgrade to the pro versions of uh you know of open ai's new new stuff and I think they will play a role there but um also I think that these visual intelligence features are really good and people will it will build you'll start to hear about it a little bit it won't be like people standing in line for Christmas but you'll hear more about it the Emojis there's something for everybody coming and then we get more and more Siri especially in the spring so it builds slowly it builds slowly builds slowly and then the form factors start to change we have a low-end phone called the SE coming out in the spring then we see a slim version in our opinion coming out in the fall and then we have foldables coming in later years so we see a multi-year cycle and we think the Stock's Teflon by the way I mean there's been people trying to will this thing down and all it does is go up every day so it's basically in line with the snp's performance this year which not bad 33.7 trillion market value right now yeah where do you think we are in the Arc of Cook's tenure and are people talking about succession at all or would be uh upand comers well look they have Jeff they have um a very good you know they they have a formal head of AI from Google um they have a very strong bench I it seems to me he's got energy to stick around at least a few more years obviously that I got that question I bit with Luca being uh the CFO for 10 plus years and now moving on to a new role uh Luca did a great job of uh letting the street kind of see the light on Services he did a great job shepher us through obviously Tim executed that I think Tim's got some energy left to see this AI thing through I think that you know there were some folks who doubted him doubted the the company said where is it and then obviously he shown it and I think there's a little work left on the table but they have to be thinking about it a little more at the company just given that he's you know getting into the mid-60s and it's a normal thing you should be doing meanwhile we got some headlines from Reddit it's a good example today incorporating a new AI tool I think it was DocuSign last week are you starting to feel like the wave of use cases is broadening to things that touch real people's lives I do I do I think that we we excited about it we call what could be happening at AI Halo effect is not just Nvidia but now we need to see PCS smartphones other things networking infrastructure servers Etc uh start to go and we are that will happen when we get more use cases and um obviously uh Jim talks a lot about Salesforce you know the things they're doing this agent uh wave that we're going to see in software is a big deal and we are seeing more use cases and open AI is going to be a big part of it and and we are seeing 12 days of open AI but wait for this Sora launch uh that they're doing about their video AI product and many more things so we're getting more excited I mean we don't want to get overhyped right now there's a little bit of uh seasonality maybe a pause with Blackwell and then we should see a big uptick starting next year into 26 for a breakout Courtney uh the home builders I think I'd continue to take look even with higher rates here xhb is a way to play it Dan we're going to do this build your dreams byd what it stands for yeah largest ev market share in China um they're killing it right there I think they lower rates I think this goes higher lower rates byd higher I did not know that that it actually stood for anything the perplexity just told me that it's interesting to me that you know the way the market has behaved in the last several weeks but even going into the election was we need to ow more cycal we need to ow more financial stocks we're going to repic this market for a maybe a growth acceleration even at least uh maintaining above Trend growth meanwhile though we're only a couple months removed from a pretty big growth scare job growth has kind of slowed to a point the housing market seems pretty locked up it's kind of interesting how the sentiment has kind of jumped ahead is the economic numbers position to actually validate that view markets tend to be forward looking so I would expect this I know there has been a recession in durable goods and in housing and Auto Sales principally because of high rates which have made affility an issue that's really on the come next year I mean I think the spread of 10 years and mortgages should come down and the tenure hopefully behaves and I think if if there's more confidence and more Supply I think housing actually could lead this recovery I I think that's why home builders actually started to act better this week as well yes uh they seem very sensitive too to the yields you know sort of halting their rise as well I guess the question is if we believe it's still a supportive environment then pretty much all the things you can identify would suggest you shouldn't be too worried about next year the second question is is something like the S&P 500 the best vehicle to capitalize on that um I think investors are still trying to figure this out we did a survey with our institutional investors and and our R clients last week the majority of institutional investors don't think Fang is the leading trade they're actually betting on cyclicals but if you look at the raia world uh the majority are betting on Fang so I think the market is still un decided whether to be long the mag 7 or the cyclicals I'm inclined to be more cyclical and bet even on small caps having a a very big year next Tom Lee is optimistic about the 2025 investment Outlook citing supportive factors like a pro business administration a doish Federal Reserve stabilizing rates and ample sideline cash he believes housing could drive recovery and seize opportunities in cyclical stocks and small caps despite uncertainties like trade tensions and geopolitical risk markets He suggests are positioning for long-term growth he also highlights the growing role of AI and Tech with Nvidia and other sectors adapting to challenges and opportunities these developments alongside historical Trends create a promising setup for investors.
do you believe housing will play a significant role in the next economic recovery how do geopolitical risks like China's probe into Nvidia affect your investment Outlook
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