저자: DanIves · 외국인
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Dan Ives는 애플이 AI(Apple Intelligence)로 강한 아이폰 업그레이드 사이클에 진입했다고 보며 목표가 325달러를 유지한다. 설치 기반이 전년 대비 7% 늘어 1.5억 대가 추가됐고, 중국에서는 6월 분기경 두 자릿수 성장으로 가속될 것으로 본다. 엔비디아는 딥시크 우려에도 펀더멘털이 유효하며 하락 시 매수 기회로 본다. 패널 Steve Weiss는 엔비디아를 추가 매수했다고 밝힘.
다듬은 글
record Dan IES W bush Securities Global head of Technology research joins us now buy rating on Apple longtime Bull price Target 325 what's your biggest takeaway I mean much better than feared and I think if you if you go back to sort of the barys the Skeptics it's really that iPhone demands falling off a cliff it was actually I disagree if you look Apple intelligence especially what we're seeing in us having a positive impact and that guidance that's really reflecting right now I think you have a trajectory to where you're going to ultimately have accelerated growth in China starting I think in the June quarter you could have double digigit China growth as Apple intelligence launches We Believe ultimately probably in the month of April Dan IES of W bush Securities remains bullish on Apple highlighting strong iPhone demand and the growth potential of Apple intelligence which is driving a significant upgrade cycle he expects accelerated growth in China as new AI features and apps roll out boosting consumer adoption Apple's installed BAS grw 7% year-over-year adding 150 million devices positioning the company as a leader in the consumer AI Revolution I've sees apple as benefiting from Global AI adoption leveraging its extensive ecosystem despite challenges in markets like China IES believes Apple's Innovation ecosystem strength and AI driven advancements will sustain its dominance and long-term growth what did we learn overall about Apple intelligence and the uptake and was there anything surprising cuz it's been hard to get a narrative on on whether this is really working in the way they expect it yeah look we've talked about a lot on the show about all of our Asia checks I think what the first thing you're looking is that Apple intelligence is driving upgrades said it's the strongest upgrade cord they've ever had so I think that is really positive in terms of iPhone 16 over iPhone 15 because that's all part of this multi-year massive upgrade cycle called an elongated super cycle that you're going to see and also it's about the install base install base is now up 7% year 100 50 million new devices added to the Apple ecosystem look that speaks to our thesis you could sort of go through each quarter and sort of nitpick but ultimately it's about the golden install base of copertino and ultimately the AI the consumer AI Revolution runs through copertino and that's even why this week despite all the Panic with deep seek Apple stock was up because investors have start to recognize they're a toll collector one way or another if it's if it's us China middle wherever it's coming from from the consumer AI Revolution 25% of consumers will ultimately access AI through Apple yeah we've talked about them being kind of a free rider China though I mean they continue to face increased competition jiai or uh or others in the market um what gives you the confidence that when they add the AI features whatever may even be allowed by the Chinese government that it's actually going to really uh cause an uptick and sale and well that that would probably the biggest debatable point here is like what's going to give confidence that China is going to reverse but again I think whether it's buy do 10 cent in terms of that when that partner is announced part of it is 100 million I've been upgraded in basically three and a half four years in China so there is a penup upgrade they've gained 200 bips of market share and from all of our checks you know in China really across Asia it's showing that demand's there for reason to upgrade and I think with apple intelligence as they roll out more features remember 3.4 and continues this is really going to be the start as more and more apps are built on top of Apple intelligence in the US and especially what we see coming out of China in terms of catalyzing demand so all of these third-party surveys that suggested consumers were not moved by gen offerings is that because they just haven't seen the good stuff yet yeah because this is this is just the beginning where you're going to have ultimately hundred hundreds of apps that are going to be developed on Top Apple intelligence that whether it's Health whether it's Fitness whether it's whether it's financials regardless different verticals eventually autonomous robotics it'll all come through apple and I think that's why our view here is that to to look at this and say they're behind Okay round one maybe they lost round two with 2.3 billion iOS devices and 1.5 billion iPhones you could lose the first round if you ultimately participate in second third fourth round that's where we are and this is just the beginning of the AI Revolution what about Rob at feels like and many are suggesting that the goal posts have in fact moved this week that the narrative has at least changed somewhat you own Nvidia feel like doing anything with your stock um if anything I'm getting an echo here Scott sorry getting some feedback I hear myself can we uh come back to me uh yeah sure um sorry about that it's not yeah it's gone it's gone it left I can I can come in I apologize I apologize for that I was hearing myself speak but anyway listen if you call him Jimmy Jitters you can call me Robbie the opportunist in in in the new Edge side of things because we expected this volatility from these type of extended price points and we've seen a lot of it we did some trading around tsmc as well when we saw the selloff so we are underweight Nvidia but we continue to look for opportunities to buy more of the stock longer term it' be imprudent as Jim says to ignore the risk of in efficient computing power on their overall growth however the company continues to have dominant market share they have a strong Mo supported by a developer friendly ecosystem um we've been a disciplined buyer of this name we're roughly 50% the weight of the index and the reality of it is if you buy at these levels when you have these recalibrations it provides a margin of safety and what is still a very sick iCal business there's no doubt that more efficient compute can be an issue but as Jim said none of the capx from the hyperscalers is looks like it's can coming in meaningfully and we still think that Nvidia is going to be the strongest beneficiary of that and remember we're up in the recent purchases we made let's bring in Steve Weiss who joins us now on the phone because he in fact has bought more Nvidia today tell me why today was the day to do that given the headlines that we showed our viewers from that wall the questions that are still out there the fact that this stock has tried to bounce rather unsuccessfully that's all correct and and basically I agree with everything that Rob said in including by the way his aversion to hearing him talk but the reason I bought it is the uh is the headlines today in part and it's been a pretty successful strategy with Taiwan semi with Netflix with United Healthcare on high quality permanent Compounders to buy the dip and so what we've seen this week is a lot of frightened holders who perhaps didn't know what they owned bought the momentum exiting the stock so look I don't know what happens with the meting Jensen and and Trump nobody does but I can tell you anybody that's ever met with Trump recently has come out with Trump on their side and supportive of them so you will come through a situation of course with deep seek where you where Tech lines up on two sides you've got the Mets of the world who really want to drive down cost yet they said that they're not revising their budget nobody should in this so you going to win from that with Nvidia now it's not news that nvidia's margins are going to come out of pre come under pressure that in fact is Moore's law the only news is is that it may be happening sooner than later but they will continue to innovate so right now I'm buying the Panic selling in that I also bought the Panic selling in Taiwan semi I also bought smaller because it wasn't really a big decline on Microsoft as well yesterday so I just take those opportunities for what I believe is still going to be a great AI capex cycle for technology the difference being at least for now you have to be more selective so each those have an idiosyn idiosyncratic bull case to them versus the broader range that don't so that's why I bought those and and topped them up today thank you I would have done it again uh final trade time we have fascinating sad Carter pulled up Walmart and Costco beat the NASDAQ over the past 40 years incred amazing amaz okay final trade time Tim Carter is full of those by the way and he fortunately we get him a lot all the time on the show GDX is probably another one I bet he's done this with gold in in the S&P and it's certainly been a period where Gold's had a great run making fresh new all-time eyes GDX to me has been underperforming that go buy that Courtney uh you know we started the show talking about this broadening happening and in light of Invesco being here I do think looking at the RSP which is the equal weight S&P 500 is absolutely worth taking a look at here Dan Nathan I agree with that especially when you see some of these big names kind of reverse a little bit I thought Apple's price price action today was really bad I expect maybe the Meta Even though it had a good quarter to come back into a little bit gter braxon Worth or worth Char got to go with one of those uh singled out earlier today so Accenture obviously uh some would say a low beta boring kind of name but I think you play it for right Dan Ives of wedbush Securities highlights Apple's strong position in the consumer AI Revolution driven by its ecosystem growth and the launch of Apple intelligence he notes a robust iPhone upgrade cycle and a 150 million device increase in its installed base anticipating double-digit growth in China as AI features roll out fueling further op option and market share gains despite challenges and competition IES believes Apple's multi-year upgrade super cycle and Innovations across AI driven verticals like health and finance ensure its Market leadership Apple's scale and strategy position it has a key player in the global AI transformation will Apple's AI Focus be enough to maintain its market dominance can apple successfully capture growth in China's competitive Tech landscape
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